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Trade Like A Trend Following Shark

Jerry Parker writes in:

What makes trend followers so great is their uncompromising approach to life: They’re mean, they’re hungry, and they’re coming at you. There’s a refreshing obviousness about the entire species; they pull no punches, they spring no surprises. They are what they are.

Parker passed this article on:

If everybody seems pretty depressed this week, there’s an obvious reason for it: Shark Week just ended. Shark Week, an annual bonanza provided by Discovery Channel, is insanely popular, generating amazing ratings year after year. Almost 29 million people watched it last week during prime-time hours. That’s 29 million. And why not? Sharks unite people of all races, creeds and political stripes, because everyone, even libertarians, are scared of sharks, and TV shows about the daunting creatures unite the nation emotionally. By contrast, a lot of people think meth dealers (“Breaking Bad”) and serial killers (Dexter, Hannibal) are role models. What makes sharks so great is their uncompromising approach to life: They’re mean, they’re hungry, and they’re coming at you. There’s a refreshing obviousness about the entire species; they pull no punches, they spring no surprises. They are what they are. People just love this annual celebration of the dorsally challenging, and when Shark Week is over you can feel the spirit of the American people sag. It means that the summer itself is winding down. Even the sharks are closing up shop. What a massive downer. Shark Week comes but once a year—this season with a “dramatized” documentary about a monstrously huge shark called Megalodon—and for the other 51 weeks we are on our own. I don’t understand this. If the public is so fixated on sharks, why isn’t there a Shark Spring Break? Why isn’t there at least a Shark Week every quarter? Why isn’t there a Shark Christmas Special? Or an All-Shark President’s Weekend? What other type of programming could be so breathtakingly popular, yet only get broadcast once a year? Pro Football Week? Nascar Week? “The Daily Show” Week? And don’t tell me there are only a finite number of programs about sharks out there, or that the public would eventually turn away if the airwaves were glutted with shows devoted to the tigers of the deep. Don’t be ridiculous. The very concept of Shark Week raises interesting questions about TV programming in general. Why is it always sharks that have to man the barricades? Why don’t rabid lemurs ever get into the act? Why can’t spotted hyenas ever step into the breach? Hey, you pumas out there. Hey, boa constrictors. Put on your game face and suit up. Admittedly, Spotted Hyena Week does not have the same ring. Much of the problem lies with the personalities and public profile of the planet’s other species. Whales are just not scary, except killer whales, which are actually dolphins—and that ruins everything, terror-wise. Bears are only intermittently scary; even the ferocious ones look kind of cute. Tigers are scary, but people like and admire tigers, while they hate sharks. Same deal with lions. Anacondas are scary, but you are not going to get eaten alive by an anaconda in the Long Island Sound or off the coast of Malibu. As for dogs, cats, cows, robin redbreasts, Shetland ponies? Forget it. Feral Cat Week has some appeal, as do Killer Gibbons and Jailbreak Chimps. But a whole week devoted to those animals’ exploits? I don’t think so. I am not telling Discovery Channel how to run its business. Actually, I am. Television is a zero-sum proposition. If there were more shows about sharks all year round there would be fewer series about klutzes auditioning for doomed Broadway productions, fewer talk shows, and far fewer programs in which people who can’t sing get to decide the fates of people who can’t dance. If there were Sunday morning gabfests like “Face the Shark Nation” or “Meet The Shark,” people might actually tune into those shows. A step in the right direction might be incorporating some shark material into otherwise humdrum programming: “The PBS NewsHour + Sharks,” “Conan & Sharks,” the National Hockey League Game of the Shark Week. I’m not saying it would boost viewership for every show with minuscule ratings. But it would be a step in the right direction.

Nice.


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Who’s Your Daddy?

A recent email conversation:

Ray: I’ve read all the books and saw the movie. I really enjoy the podcast. I’ve learned a lot from you work and look forward to seeing what new projects your working on. At times i may not agree with your rants, but it does make me think Thank you for all you’ve done.

Covel: Thanks. What do you disagree on?

Ray: Perhaps agree or disagree is not the proper term, for I find your work very enlightening. Though I agree with the argument you are making, at times I wonder if there is a better way to make. For instance, the image of Big Ben kissing me on the lips and tucking me in is not the most pleasant. I understand and agree with your point of view just not the visual image. Maybe it’s just the green tea talking.

Covel: Ah I see. Two ways I see that. Gross and a better image to be used perhaps. Or spot on and it makes people terribly uncomfortable to think about how much power they have entrusted to him. And that his position has truly become daddy-esque.

Ray: Did we entrust him with the power? He’s not elected. Or did he just take the power? 2008 provided a great opportunity for someone to grab power and Ben took as much as he could.

Covel: People have voted for the overall system (that includes Bernanke) to take care of them from cradle to grave. Sort of like when we are 5 years old and our parents tuck us in and give us a kiss.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

No “Calls” Here and No Apologies

Feedback in:

Can you please send me a list of all the historical trade recommendations you have made in the last 3 years? I am thinking of subscribing and would like to see your results. Thanks, Gary

I am not in the business of giving trade recommendations. My services are clear.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Talking Loud and Saying Nothing

This email came in:

I am an avid listener of you podcast, I have read and seen much of your material and I have to say enjoy your controversial approach. I find it hilarious how you poke fun at the technical charting ‘fan base’, but like the many I have to say I would disagree that trend following is the only proven way. In short, I think we both agree risk management is the key to longevity whatever style you adopt, from many of the legends have been quoted that the style of trading is not the issue but finding a system which suits your personalty is critical. As 90 percent of any trade is psychological any system in the wrong hands is doomed to fail if executed emotionally even trend following. There are many famous technical traders all of which would have there profit and loss available to see from the same resources you produced when showing all the successful trend followers. I don’t think your argument towards the technicals is valid, but l do agree that trend following works and is a great trading strategy, l just think its a little naive to think its the only one. Keep up the good work, I really like your material.
Regards
James

Where is the data for the predictive technical analysis traders? Send me the decades of performance data. James Brown, and I say this with a smile, saw it:


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Performance
Research
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Is Not “Eyeballing”

When do I enter and exit? When do trend followers know it is the right time to enter or exit? Some feedback:

Michael, how do you know when a trend starts, and when a trend ends? I’m not asking for your precise signals, but you never mention that somewhere in your writings or student presentations there actually is some precise signal for entering and a precise signal for exiting. And what are the signals for confirming that a trend is in existence? I would feel much better about you if you just said that you did indeed have proprietary signals for the existence of a trend, a signal for entering, a signal for exiting, and that you impart this to your students. I hope you won’t say that you just eyeball a trend and make a judgement without signals as to the entry and exit.
Thanks.

You have read chapter 5 of my book The Complete TurtleTrader? It is a system walk through with entries/exits. Yes, my systems/training at www.trendfollowing.com has exact entry/exits. In terms of trend existence–a trend can never be measured or properly known until after an exit signal. There is no eyeballing in the trend following world. This is about systems.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

William Eckhardt Trend Following Wisdom

Question: “Every few years after a rough period someone says trend-following is dead.”

William Eckhardt: “I lived through the death of trend following a half dozen times and, like Mark Twain’s death, it was highly exaggerated.”


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

When the Trend Following Light Bulb Hits

Excerpts from nice feedback in tonight:

Michael, I want to thank you for pursuing your passion for trend following so tenaciously. I consider myself very new to the concept of trend following. I was first introduced to this style of trading and the story of the turtles traders in 2007 by a mentor of mine. I was 25 years old. At the time, I had become very interested in trading, stocks, and the allure of making money in the market. All the “knowledgeable and older” people I spoke to of this passion said there’s no such thing as fast money and it was best to stick with a buy and hold strategy. The message was, I should save 10% of my income and wait 40 years and I’d retire as a wealthy person. During this period, I read a few books on trading, mostly about using fundamental analysis and executing a buy and hold strategy to identify stocks with a high growth potential. I executed a few trades, made some money, lost some money and than walked away from trading believing it just wasn’t for me. I started funding my IRA and 401K using run of the mill mutual funds and put my active trading interest on hold. Fast forward to last summer, I am sitting in a tent in Kandahar, Afghanistan working for the U.S. Air Force. It’s the middle of the night and after reading on the Internet for days about trend following and the turtle traders story, I declared to a partner of mine. “I am going to teach myself how to trade.” He laughed at me and said you’ll likely lose all your money and for Gods sakes don’t buy some canned trading training program. He told me if your going to learn to trade, teach yourself, because that’s probable the only way that’s you’ll be successful. I thought it was good advice and I followed it. By the middle of the summer of 2012, I had become disgusted with the options I had for a executing a traditional buy and hold strategy. I had watched friends and family lose thousands of dollars in the 2008 crash, than gain some of it back, but at the same time, intuitively it didn’t seem right to me that I should be investing my hard earned money in mutual funds knowing those fund managers must be making millions on us “Joe Public”. Do they have my best interests in their hearts? What makes them smarter than me? How come it seems like the game everyone is playing is fixed? Additionally, I felt like having to be an expert in stock picking by reading companies balance sheets, or discerning broad trends, or by identifying hot market sectors through the news wasn’t going to work for me. I thought diversification only meant buying and holding different asset classes based on a defined time horizon. I didn’t understand what technical analysis was. By this time, I was trading here and there, but all the time, I felt like my activity was no better than guessing. I had no idea how much of an equity to buy, how long to hold, or what the function of a stop loss was. I didn’t understand the concept and application of trending following. I’d never heard of an automated trading system. Sitting in that tent, that very night, I went on Amazon bought 3 of your books, had them shipped to me in Afghanistan. I than began reading everything I could find on trending following, the turtle story and alternatives to discretionary trading. After I made this decision to teach myself to trade, it was as though something clicked in my mind. Ed Seykota says “intention = results”. Well I intended to learn to trade and I intended to use trending following as the vehicle. Thanks to the guidance, data, results, and discussions on trading software outlined in your books I’ve been able to make this happen. From your books, I’ve learned 90 percent of what I need to know about trend following and the rest was filled in by additional reading and through though trial and error. I kept thinking back to my past trading successes and failures, and realized I had been blindly making classic trading mistakes. After I made the decision to pursue developing an automated trending following system. I found the work in your books invaluable in solidifying and clearly defining a path to an alternative way of thinking and trading. Something about your descriptions of taking emotion out of the trading process was deeply appealing to my mind. Armed with all the evidence and knowledge from your work, I am now able to confidently say trend following is really the only method for trading that I can see will win in the long term. It was through your work that you lifted the val on this style of trading for me, and I’m sure, many other people like. In closing, I want to thank you for being so passionate about this style of trading. It comes through clearing in your books, on your websites, and in your podcast. Without your dedication and passion for trend trading, I wouldn’t be applying my own passion for being successful in my life. I just wanted to tell my story about teaching myself how to trade; going from zero to an active trading system by sheer determination with an intention to following a different path outlined through your work and others like you. Hopefully, I can endure the inevitable draw downs and second guessing that comes with trend following. Armed with the knowledge outlined in your work, I think I can.

Thanks,
Daniel

Winners just win. They want it. He wants it.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.