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Tag: feedback

Dumb Luck

Posted on by Michael Covel

Don’t confuse luck with a profitable system. Dumb luck is just dumb luck:

Reader: I open[ed] an account with 10 USD and with trend following I make 20 USD in 6 days.

Covel: That is gambling. Not trend following.

Reader: But it’s profitable.

Covel: Someone wins the lottery, and you apparently won the scratch off this week. That’s not a system. Luck.

Note: Yes, some not so wise people occasionally write me.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Your Feedback Makes the Show

Posted on by Michael Covel

Podcast guest recommendation feedback in:

Dear Michael, I’m not sure how I found your podcasts. Must be a stroke of good luck. I find them to be superb.

In the late 70’s and early 80’s, I had a patient and casual friend who was a financial systems analysis with one of the Kaiser Companies in Oakland, CA. He equaled his yearly Kaiser salary counting cards in Nevada. In October 1987, he was using a rudimentary computer in a small independent stock brokerage office next to my dental office. I remember well that fateful day of the crash. A short time later he purchased a seat on some exchange in Chicago. I saw a wright up on him in a obscure financial magazine which described how he started in Chicago with $100K. He doubled it yearly for about 5 or 6 years. He continued to prosper over the next several years.

In early 2000’s his company was purchased by [name] for around $[xxx] million. In 2004, he ran for the [political office]. He lost to now [politician].

His name is [Name]. His company was [Name]. There is some info on the Internet and he now runs [Name] in Chicago.

I have not seen [Name] for many years but would feel comfortable contacting him to explore speaking with you if you are interested.

I am now 80 years old and have diminished eye sight. Reading is a challenge but I am determined to read all of your books on my iPad. Please give me your recommendation for the order in which to read them.

Warm regards,
[Name]

I know of [Name], and know he built a legendary career. If you could arrange for an introduction that would be great. [Name] would be a natural fit with my guests, and I suspect he knows many of them, i.e. Leo Melamed, Peter Borish, Jerry Parker, Ed Seykota, Larry Hite, etc.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Make My Dreams A Reality Mr. Covel

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel, Trust you must be doing great.​ ​I ​have read all of your books many times & I really admire you for your methodical approach to markets. I am a IIT-IIM Graduate with more than 22 years of experience in India Capital Markets. I have been able to predict the market turns with close to 90% accuracy with verifiable track record. I appear on CNBC, ZEE Business & ET-NOW regularly. I am really passionate towards my profession. I run a boutique Alternative Investment Management firm specializing in generating positive returns irrespective of Market Direction. We are proficient in all types of Technical Analysis based trading.

1. Conventional Pattern Recognition Based Trading
2. Computerized Algorithm Based Trading
3. Predictive Methodology Based Analysis
4. Behavioral Studies based on Market’s Psychological Profile

I have a proposal to launch an Absolute Alpha Global Hedge Fund using hugely diversified strategies for trading in multiple asset classes such as different Global Equity Indices, Commodities & Currencies. As we will be using just 30% fund in trading, more than 60% funds will be used in Global Arbitrage to generate fixed income for balancing the risk. We are fully confident that we will be able to give more than 20% positive returns per annum in USD terms with less than 10% Equity drawdown. We wish to create a Global Hedge Fund which specializes in generating super normal positive returns every year. This structure has humongous potential to become a hugely successful Fund in just 2 to 3 years. I have 100% conviction in my abilities to deliver the real performance. An association with your company will give us everything what we are looking for. I look forward to hear positively from you soon to make my dream into reality. I promise you to give my 100% efforts to deliver more than the promise.

Thanks & warm regards,
[Name]

I don’t recall ever writing about 90% accuracy. Isn’t that the Holy Grail of all Holy Grails? Even if you had that accuracy how does it guarantee you make money? You could be accurate 90% of the time and still lose massive money on the other 10%. Accuracy talk is not trend following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Nice Work Sir!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Podcast feedback:

Since discovering your podcasts, I have not gotten much else done. Nice work sir.

A fun comment from Brad Rotter (a guest!).

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following: Freedom and Opportunity

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Greetings Michael, My name is [Name] and I am a relatively new investor/trader. I have been unsuccessfully trading the stock market since early 2012. I have approximately $30K invested in the stock market and have seen that investment go down by $6K twice including today’s massive sell-off as well as up $8K twice. For some reason i keep making the same mistakes and I would appreciate some help with sticking to some rules. I really see myself as a trend follower because the stock market is very unpredictable. I would love for some help and guidance with this. I actually just finished your interview with Kevin Bruce and my goal in achieving high returns in the stock market is for “Freedom” and opportunity for various choices. I follow tweets from both you and Jon Boorman.

Regards,
[Name]

My options: books and podcast. Great place to start. Also, for more hand holding: go.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

What is My Personality Type?

Posted on by Michael Covel

What is my Myers Briggs personality type?

Greetings Mr. Covel, during your most recent podcast, you stated that you are classified as an introvert according to the Briggs Myers Type Indicator. I am curious as to what is your four letter personality type because I am willing to bet it is INTJ? Of course, I understand if you do not wish to reveal personal details about yourself.

Regards,
[Name]

INTP

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Amazing Forecasting with Dozens of Technical Indicators

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Hi Mike, I just had to send you this link, from a commentary on BarChart.com: http://www.barchart.com/headlines/story/1903370/grains-futures-wheat-corn-soybeans-trend-indicators. I was nothing short of amazed to read this. The guy is trying to put a case that wheat is in an uptrend, or the start of. Talk about picking bottoms! He plasters the chart with useless indicators and suggests it’s time to buy wheat. I wonder how many people take this sort of commentary and make trading decisions based on this type of analysis. Looking at the wheat chart it’s clearly been moving down for some months and now moving sideways. Any trend trader would be firmly short or out, but to suggest this is a buying opportunity? I’m sure you see this sort of stuff regularly, but this one struck me as so awful I thought I would pass it on.

Regards,
[Name]

One amazing reading of the tea leaves.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.