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Dumb Luck

Don’t confuse luck with a profitable system. Dumb luck is just dumb luck:

Reader: I open[ed] an account with 10 USD and with trend following I make 20 USD in 6 days.

Covel: That is gambling. Not trend following.

Reader: But it’s profitable.

Covel: Someone wins the lottery, and you apparently won the scratch off this week. That’s not a system. Luck.

Note: Yes, some not so wise people occasionally write me.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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