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Tag: covel

Ep. 252: Ben Hunt Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ben Hunt
Ben Hunt

My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history.

The topic is Epsilon Theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Power of the crowd watching the crowd
  • Game theory
  • Having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds
  • The difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory
  • The Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched
  • The “common knowledge game” and the missionary
  • The island of the green-eyed tribe

Listen to this episode:

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My Plan for Trend Following Mastery

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Good evening: My name is [Name] & I live in [Name]. I work for [Name] in their [Name] & [Name] offices. I’m reaching out because my goal in life is to be a full-time trader, but I need a mentor. [Name] offers a lot of resources, but I can’t seem to stay connected to an instructor long enough to actually learn this skill. Can you please help me? I will do whatever it takes to make this work. I want to be able to spend more time with my 4 kids & amazing wife that I’ve been with since we were 17. We’re 36. Thank you in advance for your time, [Name]

The first steps for everyone: here, here and here. This is the way I introduce and train people into trend following trading.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 251: Andrew Huszar Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Andrew Huszar
Andrew Huszar

My guest today is Andrew Huszar, a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve’s 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program.

The topic is the direction of the Federal Reserve.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Looking at the short term
  • Black swans
  • Huszar’s history and how he came to work for the Federal Reserve
  • The changing of the banking model in the US from the 1980’s to the late 2000’s
  • Quantitative easing
  • Why Huszar ultimately left the Fed at the beginning of 2011
  • How the Fed has become over five times bigger in recent history
  • The current source of Wall Street money
  • The idea of an overly financialized US economy
  • The need for long-term structural changes in the US

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Ep. 250: Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann
Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann

My guests today are Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann.

Hersh Shefrin has done pioneering work in behavioral finance and is the author of Beyond Greed and Fear.

Hoffmann is a colleague of Shefrin. He is a Professor of Finance at Maastricht University in the Netherlands.

The topic is their paper, Technical Analysis and Individual Investors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Shefrin discuss how Shefrin came to know that behavioral finance was his path; the two-system framework; the connection to behavioral and eating disorders; the disposition effect; when emotion and reason are in conflict; “transferring your assets” vs. “selling a loss”; distinguishing between rules and discretion; how we stick with rules for ourselves given the context of our humanity; the psychological pitfalls of the 2008 financial crisis; the inevitability of market crises; Minsky and Keynes; the psychology of Keynesian economics; and human ideas surrounding uncertainty.
  • With Arvid Hoffmann, Covel discusses the paper Technical Analysis and Individual Investors; the inspiration for the paper; Hoffmann’s definition of technical analysis; the narrow focus of the paper to short-term trading; technical analysis and trend following; “invest as if the market was efficient”, and “restrict your attempts to beat the market”

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arvid hoffmann

Ep. 249: An Agenda or Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
An Agenda or Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
An Agenda or Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue An Agenda Or An Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 248: Mark Miller Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mark Miller
Mark Miller

My guest today is Mark Miller, an American computer scientist. He is known for his work as one of the participants in the 1979 hypertext project known as Project Xanadu; for inventing Miller columns; and the open-source coordinator of the E programming language. He also designed the Caja compiler. Miller is a Senior Research Fellow at the Foresight Institute.

The topic is computer science.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Property rights
  • Hernando de Soto
  • Bitcoin and digital trust
  • “Smart contracts”
  • Why a contract is like a board game
  • Game theory
  • 3rd World infrastructure
  • How program code can become a contract
  • A closer look at “possession is nine-tenths of the law”
  • Whether the Turing Test was just passed
  • Defining the term “singularity”, and the multiple singularities of the past
  • A.I. and nanotechnology
  • How Miller’s work relates to markets
  • The history of hypertext

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The Process Is Not Easily Explained

Posted on by Michael Covel

This came across my desk recently:

Dear Mr. Covel, My name is [name] and I’ve read three of your books and have listened to over 50 of your podcasts. I’m emailing you because I have a project in which I need to interview a group of successful, yet secretive, professionals. They aren’t in the Managed Futures/Trend Following space. There will be a “secret sauce” that they will not want to give away, but obviously I need to get as much out of them as possible. The interviews will be conducted in person and via telephone/skype. My questions are:

1) What successful ways have you found to break the ice and establish rapport during the interview? I would certainly be viewed as an outsider to the industry.

2) What are some uncommon ways or tactics you have used to get the proverbial “foot in the door” with individuals who have been reluctant to accept your interview?

3) What am I offering in return for this interview? In many of your podcasts reciprocity can obviously being a great thing to get the author/guest to agree to the interview, but I’m struggling with how I might be creating value for my interviewee.

4) Any words of wisdom when it comes to this first stage of the project?

I appreciate your time and keep up the good work.

Sincerely,

[name]

Tough questions as much of what I do is instinctive now after years of practice (and of course all of my on air process is out there for all to see). It might not feel like a direct answer to your questions, but my list here is the best place to start. If you are really serious, you have some homework ahead of you.

Listen to my podcast with the creator of the Rocket Men documentary Robert Kurson.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.