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Tag: covel

Price Action is the Only Action… Don’t Get Distracted

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael. Dan in Boston here, hope you are well. I’ve been devouring your podcast after I heard you on the Stansberry podcast. Thanks so much for sharing all the info / state of mind, it’s F%$ing awesome!

Question for you regarding dividends. Will you ever hold a stock that’s trending downward because it’s throwing off solid dividends? I know you can’t talk individual stocks (assuming you can’t) so I’ll just say I bought a BDC that’s throwing off a monthly dividend, annual rate is over approx 12%. I’ve got a few other BDCs all throwing off similar dividends which are generally trading sideways but I’m up on a couple of them. Seems like they are a hidden jewel that nobody cares about. I bought them after the were dis-included from the Russell 2000 ETFs so I got ‘em at rock bottom prices.

I bought the one I’m referring to before I discovered and began to knuckle down into trend following. It’s trending downward but very slowly. My technical indicators are obviously negative but they aren’t screaming toward the bottom, just very slowly shaving off a few cents per day. I may of course hit my stop, however it’s only about 15 cents shy of my buy price, and the dividend is keeping me slightly ahead and reinvesting it I’m still in the green. I’m adjusting my stops to reflect that as well, so either way if I stop out I’m not gonna get hurt too badly, if at all.

Question is do you ever factor dividends into your trend following? I probably answered my own question as I’m still making money on the stock, but would love to have your feedback.

Keep up the great work man, I just finished chapter one of the Little Book of Trend Following and I’m sure within the next few months I will read all your books. I too believe people are sheep and freeloading off the system, I’m an entrepreneur anyway, so trend following is a natural extension of my life.

Cheers
Dan

Thanks Dan for the nice words! Let me keep it simple–judge the trade by price action always (not dividends). Holding onto a losing stock because it is spinning off a dividend is not trend following. Perhaps, the math works and it is ok for your situation, but it’s just not trend following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 258: Megan McArdle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Megan McArdle
Megan McArdle

My guest today is Megan McArdle, a Bloomberg View columnist who writes on economics, business and public policy. She founded the blog “Asymmetrical Information”.

The topic is her book The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • “Trophy kids” and taking the monkey bars away
  • The idea of a regulator out there trying to guarantee our safety
  • Why the companies that make it aren’t the ones with the best strategic plan–it’s the ones that execute (and fail well)
  • The power of experimentation
  • Nobel winner Vernon Smith and experimentation
  • The idea of learning in crisis
  • How sunk costs are difficult for a large part of the population to grasp
  • Van Halen, errors, and M&M’s
  • Normative error
  • Small, manageable risks
  • Forager morality vs. farmer morality
  • A story about Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC)

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 257: Cullen Roche Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Cullen Roche
Cullen Roche

My guest today is Cullen Roche, the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com).

The topic is his book Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Entrepreneurism
  • Investing in yourself
  • The advantages of starting a blog
  • Why the word “pragmatic” is a word that has become central to Roche’s universe
  • Eliminating your biases
  • Why the US going bankrupt is a myth
  • The myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers
  • Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys
  • Bringing risk down to something we can measure
  • Warren Buffett
  • Hedging your bets

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 256: Mike Harris Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mike Harris
Mike Harris

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel speaks with Mike Harris. Harris is President of Campbell & Company (3B+ AUM), the systematic trading firm started by Keith Campbell (Campbell was featured in Covel’s first book Trend Following). Covel and Harris discuss systematic trading in the early 70’s; education about managed futures; correlation with other markets and managers; trading diverse markets; focusing on data rather than the fundamentals; why “commodities” and “CTA” are misnomers; why Harris wouldn’t fly down to Brazil to investigate fundamental information on the coffee market; risk management, drawdowns, and taking small losses; dealing with uncertainty and helping clients to understand the uncertain nature of trading; how human emotion often gets in the way of profitable trading; the efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance; continuity and how that has been thought through at Campbell & Company; the Sharpe ratio and why it isn’t the best way to look at systematic traders; and why being defensive is central to being a great absolute return trader. For more information on Campbell & Company, visit www.campbell.com.

Listen to this episode:

campbell and co.

Ep. 255: Tyler Cowen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tyler Cowen
Tyler Cowen

My guest today is Tyler Cowen, an American economist, columnist and blogger. He is a professor at George Mason University, where he holds the Holbert L. Harris chair in the economics department. He hosts the economics blog Marginal Revolution, together with co-author Alex Tabarrok.

The topic is economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers
  • Cowen’s early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
  • The notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes
  • Why we’re moving from the 1% to the 15%
  • “Average is over” and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first
  • Problems because of “average is over” in Singapore
  • Pure free markets
  • Thinking about why past regulations have failed
  • How computers change us
  • Globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for
  • Zero marginal product workers

Listen to this episode:

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Trend Following Works Across all Markets

Posted on by Michael Covel

Looking for a system that works in all markets? Consider some feedback:

Hello Mr. Covel from Turkey, I have read your book. I have been interested [in] trendfollowing for 4 years, but I am look[ing] for [a] trading system that work[s] for everything–all markets. I have not found the system that works [for] everything, and it makes me angry. Can you give me advise [on a] system that work[s] everywhere?

Best Regards,
[Name]

Note: I have been back testing for 4 years.

My trading systems work on all markets: read. Have you reviewed? Also, don’t be angry. That won’t help you.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Free CD of Research Papers? Get It Now!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Recent feedback:

Michael, Just discovered you two weeks ago and have been listening to your podcasts everyday since. I have only been able to scratch the surface of all that you have available out there, but the podcasts have already had a huge impact on the way I think about trading and life in general. I really appreciate the effort that you put into the podcast production. I have ordered your book and should receive it tomorrow and will be finished reading it by this weekend…I would appreciate receiving your [free] CD of resource papers. Thank you so much for what you are doing.

Best regards,
[Name]
Houston, Texas

Great. Drop me your address for your free CD! Want the free CD too? Drop me a line.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.