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Category: Trend Following

Ep. 583: Richard Clarke Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Richard Clarke
Richard Clarke

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My guest today is Richard Clarke, the co-author of “Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.” Richard was also the former National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection and Counter-terrorism for the United States. He worked for the government starting with Ronald Reagan’s Presidency and continued to move up the ladder until he resigned in 2003 under President George W. Bush’s presidency.

The topic is his book Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The Gulf War
  • Islamist terrorism
  • World Trade Center bombing
  • Osama bin Laden
  • The underestimation of Al-Qaida
  • Forcing democracy on the world
  • 9-11
  • War on Iraq
  • Global Warming

“We invaded Iraq with no legitimate reason to do so… it was complete and utter folly.” – Richard Clarke

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The Babe Ruth Effect in Venture Capital and Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

Consider from The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency vs Magnitude (PDF):

“Building a portfolio that can deliver superior performance requires that you evaluate each investment using expected value analysis. What is striking is that the leading thinkers across varied fields — including horse betting, casino gambling, and investing — all emphasize the same point. We call it the Babe Ruth effect: even though Ruth struck out a lot, he was one of baseball’s greatest hitters.”

Chris Dixon adds:

…about ~6% of investments representing 4.5% of dollars invested generated ~60% of the total returns. Let’s dig into the data a little more to see what separates good VC funds from bad VC funds.

Further from Dixon:

The home runs for good funds are around 20x, but the home runs for great funds are almost 70x. As Bill Gurley says: “Venture capital is not even a home run business. It’s a grand slam business.”

Speculation is not about a consistent 1% a month. That’s fantasy.

More TF resources.

The Babe Ruth Effect
The Babe Ruth Effect

Check out the resources page for Trend trading for dummies pdf.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep 582: Peter Borish Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Peter Borish Net Worth is thought to be in the region of $14 million
Peter Borish

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My guest today is Peter Borish, the chief strategist of Quad Capital. He works as a trading coach and helps recruit new traders and develop the company’s trading strategy. He also is a founding member of the Robin Hood Foundation. The Robin Hood Foundation has made great strides in their charity work and are continuing to do bigger and better things. Peter believes that the quality of life for those around you is much more important than the material possessions that can be accumulated.

The topic is trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Politics
  • Robin Hood Foundation
  • Risk management
  • Discretionary trading
  • Having objectivity in your trading
  • Kelly criteria
  • Own up to your mistakes

“Everyone trades too large relative to their perceived edge.” – Peter Borish

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Other Recommended Listens and Reads:

Simon Black Interview

Against the Gods

Peter Borish, a View

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“I’m curious for some behind-the-scenes details…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I enjoy your podcasts, I’ve been a regular listener for the past 2-3 years. You put a lot of care into each episode, and it shows. I’m curious for some behind-the-scenes details in your preparation. Do you write a podcast script? If so, how detailed is it (paragraphs, bullets, etc)? It doesn’t sound like you’re reading from a card or just winging it. How do you strike that balance?

Regards,
[Name]

I have 1 page of notes for an interview. But these days I feel like I use less and less. Monologues? In past I might have had a page of notes, but these days I ponder the issue, turn recorder on and go. It’s technically winging it, but when you do it for so long it’s not really winging it.

Interesting question!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 581: Collin Seow Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Collin Seow
Collin Seow

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My guest today Collin Seow is author of “The Systematic Trader: How I turned a $250,000 debt into profits through stock trading.” He also is a qualified Chartered Portfolio Manager with a Certified Financial Technician qualification, and a member of MENSA Singapore and Technical Analysts Society Singapore.

The topic is his book The Systematic Trader: How I turned a $250,000 debt into profits through stock trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Different types of momentum trading
  • Singaporean perspective
  • Risk management
  • Position trading vs. swing trading
  • A sense of entitlement in today’s society

“At the end of the day it isn’t about having the right strategy, it’s about having the right mindset.” – Collin Seow

“If you don’t have an edge, how the hell are you suppose to play the game?” – Michael Covel

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“Covel, you’ve done it again!”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Covel, you’ve done it again!

The Sunstein interview should be wrapped up and sent to the podcast Hall of Fame. I have a copy of Nudge sitting on my shelf and will read it soon, before reading the latest book from Sunstein. Have you read any of Nomi Prins’ work? She writes about the relationship between central banks, bankers, wall street, and politicians. She would be a great interview. Just a suggestion.

Keep up your extraordinary work!! Love the mega episodes, too.

Best,
[Name]
Berkeley, CA

Why did you like Cass one so much?

I studied the sociology of ideology at UC Berkeley and I’m fascinated by the approach neuroscientists take regarding how we arrive at political opinions, issues of morality, partisan divide, etc. Sunstein’s approach enables me to use relevant, empirical terms so I can explain my position/opinion on matters without losing sight of someone else’s. It keeps conversations civil, and fosters stimulating debate and diversity of opinion in these divided times. Kahneman is also a good teacher in this regard, and so is Jonathan Haidt, who wrote “The Righteous Mind,” (one of the best social science books of the past decade).

I live in Berkeley, a hotbed of not only “radicalism”, but liberal elitism: folks who read the NYT & Krugman and keep their radio dial tuned to NPR for their daily dose of confirmation bias. Its disheartening when educated folks are so bloated with political correctness that they simply cannot understand different perspectives on how the world works. Sunstein, et al, assist me in coping with this in my daily life.

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I will send you some screwdrivers… when I receive the book.”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel,

I purchased your book and am about 170 pages into it. I am a manufacturer of hand tools in the USA. I would like to comment not on the text but the book, the binding, and the paper covering the front and back. They are all falling a part. Florida is humid, but I also collect books and this book is just a mess. The cardboard of the cover is to soft for the weight of the book. The blue paper peeled off the card board. Your text is fascinating but your book is a mess to read or to take on a trip. I can send photos if you want them.

I do have one question. As you describe each of the investors, I understand what they are doing but how do you get them to manage small amount of money like $100,000 to $200,000? I will finish the book over the next few months. I do most of my reading while trying to get elite status on United AirLines.

Where did you buy it from? Must be some odd random thing. I am currently in SE Asia (hotter than Tallahassee, Florida where I went to school) and super hot/rainy. No issues. I have 50+ books with me and they are fine. Where can I send you another?

PS. There are TF ETFs and mutual funds. Solves the issue.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.