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Category: Trend Following

Ep. 609: Tim Larkin Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tim Larkin
Tim Larkin

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My guest today is Tim Larkin, one of America’s leading Pro-Victim Rights and Personal Safety Advocates. He has had a 25 year career training over 10,000 clients in 52 countries in how to deal with imminent violence. His books include How To Survive The Most Critical 5 Seconds Of Your Life and Survive The Unthinkable. His newest book is When Violence Is the Answer: Learning How to Do What It Takes When Your Life Is at Stake. Tim’s father was an officer in the Navy. He knew at the age of 13 he was going to be a Navy Seal. His whole adolescence and early adulthood was dedicated to that goal. After college he started his Seal training. Toward the end, with just a couple weeks left of rigorous training, he went out on a routine training dive and a wave hit his ear. Tim burst his eardrum and his career was over. This was the first time, at age 21, his body had failed him. Sometimes the smallest things, like an eardrum bursting, can change your whole course of life. This lesson learned early on by Tim translates to everything he now teaches.

The topic is his book When Violence Is the Answer: Learning How to Do What It Takes When Your Life Is at Stake.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Las Vegas shooting
  • Simulated shootings
  • Asocial violence
  • Non-verbal cues
  • Disabling one of your sensory feelings
  • Navy Seals
  • Exploiting the human body
  • Knowing principles not techniques
  • Violence is a 50/50 endeavor
  • Killing with kindness first

“Violence is rarely the answer, but when it is, it is the only answer.” – Tim Larkin

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“I suppose that this is a weird request…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I am a member in the [country] military and have been serving for the past 12 years and I am looking to change careers in the next 5-8 years. I was wondering if you have any contacts here in [country] that are Trend Traders that could possibly be open to mentorships/coaching?

The reason why I ask is I have read your books “The Complete TurtleTrader”, “Trend Commandments” and I am currently reading “Trend Following” All have been really insightful and have given me a direction in the type of trader I want to be. I understand that there is a lot that I can learn on my own, but to be able to learn from someone with a wealth of experience and who is currently “in the business” and can give me an opportunity to learn through osmosis would be highly beneficial.

I suppose that this is a weird request and I assume that you may have received requests like this before.

Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Cheers
[Name]

Not an odd request. It’s what I do. You may consider a next step.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: “Black Was Right: Price Is Within a Factor 2 of Value”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud (see book and podcast) offers new research. Excerpt:

“We provide further evidence that markets trend on the medium term (months) and mean-revert on the long term (several years). Our results bolster Black’s intuition that prices tend to be off roughly by a factor of 2, and take years to equilibrate. The story behind these results fits well with the existence of two types of behaviour in financial markets: “chartists”, who act as trend followers, and “fundamentalists”, who set in when the price is clearly out of line. Mean-reversion is a self-correcting mechanism, tempering (albeit only weakly) the exuberance of financial markets.”

Download.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay

Posted on by Michael Covel

Read the classic from 1841 that outlines manias across the human condition.

Lessons that never die.

1. Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay Volume 1 (PDF)

2. Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay Volume 2 (PDF)

Excerpt: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds is an early study of crowd psychology by Scottish journalist Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. The book chronicles its subjects in three parts: “National Delusions”, “Peculiar Follies”, and “Philosophical Delusions”. MacKay was an accomplished teller of stories, though he wrote in a journalistic and somewhat sensational style.

Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay
Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 608: Ed and Marty Give Clues with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ed and Marty Give Clues with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Ed and Marty Give Clues with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Ed and Marty Give Clues with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Meeting the achievers–how?
  • Coaching
  • Trend Following Legends

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Why Trend Following Works from Larry Swedroe

Posted on by Michael Covel

An excerpt from Larry Swedroe’s new piece about trend following:

[Trend following] performance was remarkably consistent over an extended time horizon, one that included the Great Depression, multiple recessions and expansions, multiple wars, stagflation, the global financial crisis of 2008, and periods of rising and falling interest rates.

[Trend following] annualized gross returns were 18.0% over the full period, with net returns (after fees) of 11.0%, higher than the return for equities but with approximately half the volatility (an annual standard deviation of 9.7%).

[Trend following] net returns were positive in every decade, with the lowest net return, at 4.1%, coming in the period beginning in 1919.

There was virtually no correlation to either stocks or bonds. Thus, the strategy provides a strong diversification benefit. After considering all costs and the 2/20 hedge fund fee, the Sharpe ratio was 0.76. Thus, even if future returns are not as strong, the diversification benefits would justify an allocation to the strategy.

Read more.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 607: Robert Carver Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Robert Carver
Robert Carver

 

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My guest today is Robert Carver. He got his start in finance working at trend following firm AHL in 2001 during his final year of college. He was introduced to quantitative trading while at AHL and for the first time began thinking of finance in a systematic way. He later went back to AHL, working there from 2006-2013. It took a lot of research and digging for Robert to decipher which financial tools available to traders were appropriate for him. He knew he was not the only trader with this problem so he decided to write a book laying out what he had found through his research. Robert gives actionable tips and guidelines for others who may need help finding what trading instruments are right for them. Robert also wanted “Smart Portfolios” to be a book for the average investor. He wrote it in a way that is not over complicated. Any trader, new or professional, can pick it up and find it useful.

The topics are his books Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems and Smart Portfolios: A Practical Guide to Building and Maintaining Intelligent Investment Portfolios.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Portfolio selection
  • Benchmarks
  • International investing
  • Fundamental trading
  • Warren Buffett trading
  • Expected average performance
  • Leveraging a portfolio
  • Luck vs. Skill
  • Venture capitalism

“Most people probably spend much less time thinking about their portfolio’s than they do thinking about getting their car fixed.” – Robert Carver

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