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Ep. 591: Jeffrey Tucker Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jeffrey Tucker
Jeffrey Tucker

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Jeffrey Tucker is an American economics writer of the Austrian School, an advocate of anarcho-capitalism and Bitcoin, and has authored seven books. Jeffrey’s new book, coming out September 2017, is titled “Right Wing Collectivism: The Other Threat to Liberty.”

Michael and Jeffrey start the conversation talking information. Regimes come and go, but information we share with one another cuts through governments. Interactions with others and the tools we use to spread information are what shapes history, rather than governments trying to put their spin on it. Government officials are not visionaries, they do not define the world, they do not create history. They spend their term in office gearing up to get elected for their next term in office. The more responsibility taken out of government’s hands the better. This leads us to Bitcoin…

Why is Bitcoin so important? Bitcoin represents freedom. It’s an international currency, trades the same globally and has increased in value over time. Jeffery has been studying monetary theory since he was an undergraduate. He wrote his thesis on the gold standard and assumed he had the monetary system figured out. So naturally, when Bitcoin came out, he dismissed the idea. After a few years went by, he was forced to acknowledge the advancement of crypto currency. He now looks at markets far differently than he did in the first part of his career. He knows that the markets know much more than any person could ever understand.

Jeffrey switches the conversation to another passionate subject for him, child labor laws. Youth have bought into the idea of needing a college degree to get the right job. Parents see pushing higher education on their children as a way of guaranteeing their children’s success. Unfortunately, degrees are not necessary in today’s age. Youth unemployment and child labor is a major leading factor to issues later in life. Many kids never have their first job until after they graduate from college and every year thousands of college students graduate still dependent on their parents.

Michael and Jeffrey finish up the podcast discussing corporate taxes and building digital walls. The American economy would experience spectacular gains if corporate taxes were slashed. Cutting personal income tax would be nice, however corporate income taxes being cut is the first phase of reform. Our economy also is being hurt by slowing down the flow of information and trying to block it. Is the world going in the direction of building digital walls? Are governments slowing down growth potential by blocking information? Absolutely.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Liberty
  • Friedrich Hayek
  • Crypto currency
  • Ledger technology
  • Block chains
  • Excessive waves of hysteria
  • College debt
  • Tax laws
  • Trump administration
  • Nation state
  • Building blocks for a civilized society

“Government doesn’t really try anymore, and that is a good thing.” – Jeffrey Tucker

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Should you Follow the Trend when Investing in Sterling During Brexit Negotiations?

Great rant:

Follow the Trend ……… But!!!

We can never stand in the way of market moves – nobody is big enough aside from those with the deepest of all pockets and even then their luck may just run out?

However the sheer stupidity of market reactions continues to the point that I believe most market participants simply are not accepting we are living in a different World following Trumps win and Brexit.

Take today’s move lower in the Pound [ To be fair a small move lower in the Far East on headlines that May will be outlining her case for a hard Brexit shortly] – The weekend news is quite possibly the most bullish news I’ve seen for Sterling in my 30 year career trading fx markets. Here’s – for dummies – what has really been said over the weekend.

 

Follow a trend, Invest in Sterling
Picture of Fifty Pound Notes by Images Money; CC. Should you Follow the Trend?

Trump – I will immediately put a sizeable trade deal in place with the UK – front of the que as I am a huge believer in Brexit and as the World’s largest market the U.S will offer Britain free access on favourable terms which will boost jobs, investment and prosperity in the UK massively. As far as Europe is concerned they can go screw themselves – I am not on the same page as Merkel on anything – Europe is heading for a disaster and I am already thinking about tariffs on German products in the U.S. – BMW for example.

Meanwhile the UK government announces that it may slash UK taxes to play hardball with Europe – meaning vast increases in UK competitiveness versus Europe which means anyone else clinging on to the pipe dream that business will leave the UK and relocate to Europe – a socialist / anti-entrepreneurial cesspit of high taxes and bureaucracy then for God’s sake wake up and smell the coffee. That leaves the UK as in its strongest position for decades with the prospect of not only globally driven growth and exports surges but as a safe haven for when Europe falls to pieces and likely to see massive currency inflows into the UK.

It doesn’t get any better than this for the UK which is why my targets for Sterling over the next 3 years are very simply 0.2 for Euro / Stg and 2 for cable – easy peasey – and that’s extremely conservative.

Am I long? No I’m short Sterling right here because the price action is giving no reason to back these views at all – but when it does we will flip that is for sure. Never trade my view or opinion as many of you know but if I’m right then the price action should confirm and the Pound against the Dollar needs to break at least 1.35 to show signs of life.

Meanwhile – for me – quite possibly the second best trade out there is selling the DAX. Global imports on German goods, Germany picking up the bill for a disintegrating Europe and the demolition of German values in future years only point to one direction for the German stock market. I look for a long slow move to 6000 in the Dax with the first signals this move is underway coming when it breaks 10,500 without making a new high in this particular cycle.

And as for the market clinging on t0 2010-2015 “type” solutions with bad news is good news for stocks – just remember when the shit hits the fan – what QE? Trump is a free marketer and if markets need to head a long way lower – then that’s where they should be!

The trend is your friend – but he’s a very insincere one!

Christopher Clarke
Managing Partner and CIO
Lawrence Clarke Investment Management LLP

Price action = severely underestimated by most. Listen to Chris on my show.

Ep. 512: Tim Price Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Tim Price
Tim Price

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Tim Price has worked in capital markets for over 25 years across three management firms. His book is “Investing Through the Looking Glass.”

Tim thought Brexit would be the biggest thing in politics during his lifetime, until Trump. People love a narrative and those behind Brexit and Trump produced a great one. People were so fed up with the establishment that even though they may not have agreed with the idea of Brexit or the agenda of Trump, they wanted a vote against the establishment.

“What was the driving force behind wanting to write your first book?” The seminal event for him was the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which led him to think: “How on earth did we end up in this mess?” Interest rates are still at zero eight years post crisis and central banks are still printing money out of nowhere. He has spent the years since 2008 researching what the causes were and essentially the “Who done it” in the bailouts. Michael and Tim talk about the economy and the avalanche that is building on the horizon. Michael asks, “How did we get to the point where so many of us have just accepted that there are these show figures making decisions for us that we have no choice in?”

In Tim’s work he takes people on a detailed journey through the banking system, bailouts, bond market, stock market and the solutions. “What other options in trading exist after you have value, momentum and gold?” Michael and Tim discuss why there aren’t really any other options beyond those.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trusting central planners
  • Going against the establishment
  • Banking system
  • Owning gold
  • Lehman Brothers collapse
  • 2008 bubble
  • The Brexit and Trump narrative

“Mankind has survived because of our ability to believe in things that do not actually exist.” – Tim Price

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Ep. 508: Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following

Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following
Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following

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“If you are in a dead end existence and feel like you need something else, get on a plane.” Fly to a foreign country, go alone, and do not have a plan. The influx of adrenaline from getting away and exploring can break anyone out of their day to day hypnosis.

Michael plays a series of news clips starting from the beginning of the Presidential race. The various clips start off profiling Donald Trump’s campaign as a joke, and then slowly morphing into him inching his way up in the polls and taking the Presidency. Michael then reads an excerpt from “Follow Me and Die” by Cecil Curry.

Michael ends the podcast with a quote from a recent Financial Times article featuring David Harding. The excerpt explains how Harding exploits the failures in the efficient market theory. He says that the markets are a psychological game and should not based off of fundamentals. Bet your money on the price, not what is happening in politics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trump as President-elect
  • Trading off of price, not politics
  • Nazi’s in America
  • David Harding
  • Efficient market theory

Mentions & Resources:

“Following Me and Die” by Cecil Curry

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