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Ep. 591: Jeffrey Tucker Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jeffrey Tucker
Jeffrey Tucker

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My guest today is Jeffrey Tucker, an American economics writer of the Austrian School, an advocate of anarcho-capitalism and Bitcoin, and has authored seven books. Jeffrey’s new book, coming out September 2017, is titled “Right Wing Collectivism: The Other Threat to Liberty.”

The topics are anarcho-capitalism and Bitcoin.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Liberty
  • Friedrich Hayek
  • Crypto currency
  • Ledger technology
  • Block chains
  • Excessive waves of hysteria
  • College debt
  • Tax laws
  • Trump administration
  • Nation state
  • Building blocks for a civilized society

“Government doesn’t really try anymore, and that is a good thing.” – Jeffrey Tucker

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Should you Follow the Trend when Investing in Sterling During Brexit Negotiations?

Great rant:

Follow the Trend ……… But!!!

We can never stand in the way of market moves – nobody is big enough aside from those with the deepest of all pockets and even then their luck may just run out?

However the sheer stupidity of market reactions continues to the point that I believe most market participants simply are not accepting we are living in a different World following Trumps win and Brexit.

Take today’s move lower in the Pound [ To be fair a small move lower in the Far East on headlines that May will be outlining her case for a hard Brexit shortly] – The weekend news is quite possibly the most bullish news I’ve seen for Sterling in my 30 year career trading fx markets. Here’s – for dummies – what has really been said over the weekend.

 

Follow a trend, Invest in Sterling
Picture of Fifty Pound Notes by Images Money; CC. Should you Follow the Trend?

Trump – I will immediately put a sizeable trade deal in place with the UK – front of the que as I am a huge believer in Brexit and as the World’s largest market the U.S will offer Britain free access on favourable terms which will boost jobs, investment and prosperity in the UK massively. As far as Europe is concerned they can go screw themselves – I am not on the same page as Merkel on anything – Europe is heading for a disaster and I am already thinking about tariffs on German products in the U.S. – BMW for example.

Meanwhile the UK government announces that it may slash UK taxes to play hardball with Europe – meaning vast increases in UK competitiveness versus Europe which means anyone else clinging on to the pipe dream that business will leave the UK and relocate to Europe – a socialist / anti-entrepreneurial cesspit of high taxes and bureaucracy then for God’s sake wake up and smell the coffee. That leaves the UK as in its strongest position for decades with the prospect of not only globally driven growth and exports surges but as a safe haven for when Europe falls to pieces and likely to see massive currency inflows into the UK.

It doesn’t get any better than this for the UK which is why my targets for Sterling over the next 3 years are very simply 0.2 for Euro / Stg and 2 for cable – easy peasey – and that’s extremely conservative.

Am I long? No I’m short Sterling right here because the price action is giving no reason to back these views at all – but when it does we will flip that is for sure. Never trade my view or opinion as many of you know but if I’m right then the price action should confirm and the Pound against the Dollar needs to break at least 1.35 to show signs of life.

Meanwhile – for me – quite possibly the second best trade out there is selling the DAX. Global imports on German goods, Germany picking up the bill for a disintegrating Europe and the demolition of German values in future years only point to one direction for the German stock market. I look for a long slow move to 6000 in the Dax with the first signals this move is underway coming when it breaks 10,500 without making a new high in this particular cycle.

And as for the market clinging on t0 2010-2015 “type” solutions with bad news is good news for stocks – just remember when the shit hits the fan – what QE? Trump is a free marketer and if markets need to head a long way lower – then that’s where they should be!

The trend is your friend – but he’s a very insincere one!

Christopher Clarke
Managing Partner and CIO
Lawrence Clarke Investment Management LLP

Price action = severely underestimated by most. Listen to Chris on my show.


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Ep. 512: Tim Price Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Tim Price
Tim Price

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My guest today is Tim Price. He has worked in capital markets for over 25 years across three management firms. A graduate of Christ Church, Oxford, he spent a decade as a bond specialist before going on to serve as Chief Investment Officer at three separate wealth management firms. Tim has been shortlisted for five successive years in the UK Private Asset Managers Awards programme and was a winner in 2005 in the category of Defensive Investing. He is now manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, a fund investing in Benjamin Graham-style value stocks, and specialist value funds, from around the world. Tim also writes regularly for MoneyWeek magazine and The Spectator.

The topic is his book Investing Through the Looking Glass: A Rational Guide to Irrational Financial Markets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Trusting central planners
  • Going against the establishment
  • Banking system
  • Owning gold
  • Lehman Brothers collapse
  • 2008 bubble
  • The Brexit and Trump narrative

“Mankind has survived because of our ability to believe in things that do not actually exist.” – Tim Price

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Ep. 508: Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following

Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following
Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following

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Please enjoy my monologue Hysteria with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Trump as President-elect
  • Trading off of price, not politics
  • Nazi’s in America
  • David Harding
  • Efficient market theory

Mentions & Resources:

“Following Me and Die” by Cecil Curry

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