Please enjoy my monologue Michael Covel Monologue and Peter Shankman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
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Michael, hope this finds you well. Just wanted to pass along my sincere thanks to you for you and your podcast and all you have done for me in the last year. First heard you on a Stansberry radio podcast sometime earlier this year. Intrigued by what you said, I happened to search for and find your podcast. Started fervently listening from #1 to the end. This started an amazing journey for me. I have been researching and reading everything on Trend Following. Still have a lot to learn, but I would still be in the dark without you. Best of luck to you and your team in 2015. I sincerely appreciate all you do.
My guest today is Gary Antonacci. Antonacci focuses on two issues in the quant world: relative strength price momentum with trend following absolute momentum. He’s developed a strategy where he believes it’s best to combine both.
The topic is his book Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Momentum vs. trend
Relative strength momentum, cross sectional momentum, absolute momentum, and time series momentum
Trend following vs. managed futures as terms
Antonacci’s early history and how he found his way into the career he has today
Three legendary traders that crossed paths with Antonacci early on
The efficient market hypothesis as a less-than-solid foundation
Buying higher highs
Ray Dalio and risk parity strategies
Academic perspectives on momentum
The interaction and correlation between the two momentum strategies (relative and absolute)
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My guest today is Michael Mauboussin, an investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making.
The topics are his books More Than You Know and Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Multi-disciplinary thinking and its influence on Covel
Looking at larger reference classes
The Swiss Franc
Mauboussin’s personal take on the recent oil move
Fundamentals and expectation
Luck or skill when it comes to trading profits
The paradox of skill, absolute, and relative skill
Whether scientific principles of luck exist
Defining luck
Outcome bias
The general public perception of behavioral economics
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My guest today is Peter Larson, an American paleontologist, fossil collector, and president of the Black Hills Institute of Geological Research, a company that excavates, prepares, and sells fossils. He led the team that excavated “Sue”, the largest and most complete specimen of Tyrannosaurus rex found to date, and has published numerous scientific and popular works on dinosaur paleontology.
The topic is paleontology.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Luck’s role in finding dinosaurs
Larson’s personal anecdotes about finding “Sue”
Whether Larson knew at the time that he was finding a piece of “land” in a legal sense
The scientific data that Larson was able to glean before the government took the bones
Telling a male dinosaur from a female dinosaur
What makes Larson a T-Rex entrepreneur
T-Rex as a predator or scavenger
The legal case surrounding “Sue”
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My guest today is Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, a French physicist. He is co-founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management, adjunct professor at École Normale Supérieure and co-director of the CFM-Imperial Institute of Quantitative Finance at Imperial College London.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
His firm’s performance for 2014
Whether trend following actually “died” prior to it’s “reappearance” in 2014
What trend following manages to exploit
Exploiting vs. exploring
Looking at volatility as a precursor to profit
Volatility as a measure of risk
Trend following as a genuine market anomaly
The behavioral biases in play as oil has fallen fifty percent plus
The feedback Bouchaud has received from peers on his newest paper
Whether other strategies exploit a genuine market anomaly
Bouchaud’s philosophy on transparency and “secrets” in his work
Why Bouchaud’s work culture is not a culture of MBA’s
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