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Hocus Pocus, Smoke and Mirrors Is Not Trend Following

Feedback in:

Very stimulating to hear [listen] an “original Turtle” still thrilled and verifying the TF he learned in 1983. Like Jerry Parker, as I read your books, validated in your course, I believed it “hook, line, and sinker.” The rest is hocus pocus, smoke and mirrors. Been there, done that.

Thanks,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 329: Terrance Odean Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Terrance Odean
Terrance Odean

My guest today is Terrance Odean, the Rudd Family Foundation Professor and Chair of the Finance Group at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. Odean has extensively researched into the empirical data on active trading. He is very well-known for his work in behavioral finance and is once of the early pioneers.

The topic is his extensive research into the empirical data on active trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Odean describes his work
  • How Odean started his work looking at individual broker statements
  • The disposition effect
  • How Odean was able to get individual investor data when he was starting out
  • Looking at early thinkers in the arena of behavioral finance
  • Why people buy low and sell high
  • Why statistics are one of the best ways to understand what’s going on in the market
  • The difference between male and female investors
  • Why overconfidence hurts investors
  • Attention and how we make decisions
  • Why a simple heuristic from Seinfeld could be the best way for most investors

Listen to this episode:

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What Value Does a Trader Bring to the Market?

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I am enjoying your podcasts tremendously, and have started to listen to them all the way back one by one … since outset. I came across one of your monologs where you talks about money as means of exchange, people exchanging value. I am familiar with this definition. I am curious about your opinion about trading with that regard, meaning, what value does a trader brings? What is the role of the trader in that respect?

Kindly,
[Name]

Ayn Rand said it best:

Happiness is not to be achieved at the command of emotional whims. Happiness is not the satisfaction of whatever irrational wishes you might blindly attempt to indulge. Happiness is a state of non-contradictory joy—a joy without penalty or guilt, a joy that does not clash with any of your values and does not work for your own destruction, not the joy of escaping from your mind, but of using your mind’s fullest power, not the joy of faking reality, but of achieving values that are real, not the joy of a drunkard, but of a producer. Happiness is possible only to a rational man, the man who desires nothing but rational goals, seeks nothing but rational values and finds his joy in nothing but rational actions.

Just as I support my life, neither by robbery nor alms, but by my own effort, so I do not seek to derive my happiness from the injury of the favor of others, but earn it by my own achievement. Just as I do not consider the pleasure of others as the goal of my life, so I do not consider my pleasure as the goal of the lives of others. Just as there are no contradictions in my values and no conflicts among my desires—so there are no victims and no conflicts of interest among rational men, men who do not desire the unearned and do not view one another with a cannibal’s lust, men who neither make sacrifices nor accept them.

The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader. We, who live by values, not by loot are traders, both in manner and spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit—his love, his friendship, his esteem—except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect. The mystic parasites who have, throughout the ages, reviled the trader and held him in contempt, while honoring the beggars and the looters, have known the secret motive of the sneers: a trader is the entity they dread—a man of justice.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 328: Robert Seawright Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Seawright
Robert Seawright

My guest today is Robert Seawright, the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California. Seawright is also a columnist for Research magazine, a Contributing Editor at Portfolioist as well as a contributor to the Financial Times, The Big Picture, The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch, Pragmatic Capitalism, and ThinkAdvisor.

The topic is his blog A New Kind Of Investment Outlook.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Seawright was able to put together this blog piece
  • Perfection and prediction
  • Bias blindness
  • Volatility vs. risk
  • Separating your politics from your investing
  • Financial media as entertainment
  • Whether Seawright encountered any pushback after putting out his article
  • Letting go of the high leverage idea
  • Why the more we trade
  • The worse we do
  • Nobel laureate David Baltimore
  • Adversarial collaboration

Listen to this episode:

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Trend Following Little League: Spreading the Word

Michael Covel Trend Following Little League Team
Michael Covel Trend Following Little League Team

Feedback in:

Was in Ashburn [Virginia] for a youth hockey game this morning and one of the Reston [Virginia] players walked out of the locker room with a TrendFollowing.com Little League T-shirt on and I had to do a double take. Thinking, wait I have seen that T-shirt before! LOVE that small world stuff!

Nice!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Systematic trend following exploits market moves without the noise of expectations and conventional wisdom.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.