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Ep. 252: Ben Hunt Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Ben Hunt
Ben Hunt

My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history.

The topic is Epsilon Theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Power of the crowd watching the crowd
  • Game theory
  • Having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds
  • The difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory
  • The Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched
  • The “common knowledge game” and the missionary
  • The island of the green-eyed tribe

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Mind the Gap

Straight lines always bend.

Mind the gap.

mind the gap


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Poor, Smart and a Desire to Succeed

I recently reached out to an old trend following friend for a research paper I could not find. This was our interchange:

Hope all is well in [City]. Give me an update! Hey do you have this by chance?

He responds:

Good to hear from you. Let me see if I can find this paper. Ask [Name] also, but the abstract matches our own internal research findings. The update on [Name] is that we’re doing very well. We successfully got past our […], currently running at [number] in annual revenue and growing quick, [number] employees, clear vision for the future. I see us growing to [number] AUM within 5 years. Please consider helping your own loyal followers and encourage your young people looking for opportunity to contact us if they are interested pursuing this industry as a career path. We take bets on unconventional people if they show aptitude. As an example our best [name] and our best [name] came to learn about us via your blog and podcasts. They moved here from far away places like [name] to pursue their dreams and now their lives have been positively changed for the better by joining the meritocracy of [Name]. You have the power to change peoples lives by simply making them aware of an opportunity which they do not know exists.

We’re looking for PSD’s (Poor, Smart with a Deep Desire to Succeed)

Thanks! Fun feedback.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

My Plan for Trend Following Mastery

Feedback in:

Good evening: My name is [Name] & I live in [Name]. I work for [Name] in their [Name] & [Name] offices. I’m reaching out because my goal in life is to be a full-time trader, but I need a mentor. [Name] offers a lot of resources, but I can’t seem to stay connected to an instructor long enough to actually learn this skill. Can you please help me? I will do whatever it takes to make this work. I want to be able to spend more time with my 4 kids & amazing wife that I’ve been with since we were 17. We’re 36. Thank you in advance for your time, [Name]

The first steps for everyone: here, here and here. This is the way I introduce and train people into trend following trading.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Covel Podcast: Bitcoin Driver?

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I wonder if you feel there is a link between your podcast and the bitcoin bubble? I notice the prices seems to breakout and take off just after your podcast is published? If so I am impressed with the amount of influence you have. I am curious as to how you feel about this?

Thanks, Brett

Hmmm… coincidence. Or not. Check out these Bitcoin Trading Rules.

covel bitcoin

 


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 250: Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann
Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann

My guests today are Hersh Shefrin and Arvid Hoffmann.

Hersh Shefrin has done pioneering work in behavioral finance and is the author of Beyond Greed and Fear.

Hoffmann is a colleague of Shefrin. He is a Professor of Finance at Maastricht University in the Netherlands.

The topic is their paper, Technical Analysis and Individual Investors.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Shefrin discuss how Shefrin came to know that behavioral finance was his path; the two-system framework; the connection to behavioral and eating disorders; the disposition effect; when emotion and reason are in conflict; “transferring your assets” vs. “selling a loss”; distinguishing between rules and discretion; how we stick with rules for ourselves given the context of our humanity; the psychological pitfalls of the 2008 financial crisis; the inevitability of market crises; Minsky and Keynes; the psychology of Keynesian economics; and human ideas surrounding uncertainty.
  • With Arvid Hoffmann, Covel discusses the paper Technical Analysis and Individual Investors; the inspiration for the paper; Hoffmann’s definition of technical analysis; the narrow focus of the paper to short-term trading; technical analysis and trend following; “invest as if the market was efficient”, and “restrict your attempts to beat the market”

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arvid hoffmann

Ep. 249: An Agenda or Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

An Agenda or Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
An Agenda or Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue An Agenda Or An Acting Job with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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