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Tag: Trend Following

Are You Profiting From the Market Panic?

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Michael,

I received a call from my dad asking if I was OK with the market panic selloff. Even though I had explained how I trade he and many others still think a drop in markets is bad for everyone. Naturally the panic selling was not the start of the down trend so I was nicely short the Dow prior to sell off.

I still can’t believe how robust this system is. Conceptually, I felt I understood it in the past but you just don’t get it until you trade it. And I am still amazed that the general market still thinks that you can only profit from stocks and commodities going up. At the same time I am profiting from that ignorance, so I am inclined to enjoy it.

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks.

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“Improve Our Odds While Controlling the Risk”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I have read one of your books, bought your movie, “/broke/”, from Amazon.com, and have been a podcast listener/fan for over 2 years now. I am a William O’Neill-style, long [term] stock trader, but as a computer programmer and system architect by trade, I am refining my own trading style on more of a trend following rooted philosophy. That is why I cannot stop listening to your podcast. It is great from your insight/commentary to the top-notch and interesting guests that you showcase! I would say it rivals the quality of TED Talks for me.

Anyway, I appreciate you making this information available so those traders like me can continue to learn and improve our odds while controlling the risk. Take care!

Sincerely,
[Name]

Thanks for the nice words.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
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• Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

New Trend Following Trader in Israel

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

First, let me tell you how I learn and get boosted mentally from your podcast. I was on the path of systematic trading before I got to know about you but the great diversity of people and subjects of knowledge make your podcast a joy to listen to. Specially if you are in the business of increasing the confidence that one have in pursuing his own way of living and investing. Now, I tried to enter my appreciation about the podcast in iTunes but could not do it because we cannot see your podcast in the iTunes defined for Israel. If you would like a recommendation here, in LinkedIn, I would really be happy to give it to you.

Please send me the PDF about the new system. I am sure I can learn a lot from it although I am not a TradeStation user.

Thanks for everything and keep the good work,
[Name]

Thanks! I will always take a nice recommendation!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Ride the Comet”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

I don’t know if you have seen this one already. It’s from the 1999 Australian documentary Bulls and Bears, about the Sydney Futures Exchange. A trader talks about the need to “ride the comet” when staying with a winning position. I couldn’t get just the excerpt, but the quote runs from 2:00 to 2:52:

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent chat thread about “Why has the turtle trend-following system stop working?” [not accurate headline]:

Forum guest: The drawdowns are horrendous for long term trend following systems. Don’t go near them!

Covel: Chris Clarke has good insight on this podcast ep. for those that scream “drawdown” when discussing trend following.

Also, drawdown goes far beyond trend following. Consider an excerpt from PragCap:

Another way to illustrate this is if you look at something like Berkshire Hathaway. BRK has gone down 50% three times in the past (or maybe more). Once in the early 1970′s, once in 1999 and then again during the recent crisis. Of all the investors who owned BRK in 1970, how many have done better than the 20% or so return of the stock over the years by getting in and out of it in order to avoid the 50% drawdowns?

Big returns over time come with big drawdowns. Buffett has also said himself:

“Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.”

No wisdom there (heavy sarcasm).

My thoughts on Michael J clark of Clark Capital Management, one of the Trend Following Legends.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 371: Alexander Ineichen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Alexander Ineichen
Alexander Ineichen

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My guest today is Alexander Ineichen, the founder of Ineichen Research and Management AG, an independent research firm established in October 2009 focusing on investment themes related to nowcasting and risk management. Alexander started his financial career in derivatives brokerage and origination of risk management products at Swiss Bank Corporation in 1988.

The topics are his books Absolute Returns: The Risk and Opportunities of Hedge Fund Investing and Asymmetric Returns: The Future of Active Asset Management.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Seeing through the market forecasting flash
  • The importance of “check box” methodology
  • Simplification as sophistication
  • The concept of nowcasting
  • Understanding the whole, so you know what can be eliminated
  • Learning to watch for trend reversals

“If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” – George Soros

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Trend Following Weekly Moving Averages

Posted on by Michael Covel

Reader: I saw the documentary you posted on Twitter regarding fractals and I am extremely happy to see that you studied the source. There are very rare people that do that. I tested some systems based on weekly moving averages/breakouts in futures markets. The results are very good, but one has to wait the whole week & it requires tremendous patience. What say regarding weekly strategies in futures markets?

Covel: Weekly. Yes! Many top pros do so too. Were you looking for a quick confirm?

Reader: Yes, because I used to trade daily time frames. Never thought of weekly. Now when I tested I found it to be smooth. Although there are sometimes only 4-5 trades a year. Also, in some stock futures I backtested and found the results slightly negative over 10 years. But in combination of overall portfolio it was greatly positive. Also, I think that the majority will not think of weekly time frames while trading futures in this High Frequency world of today.

Covel: I agree. Many agree. It works. Has for decades. Patience is an issue for any strategy.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.