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Tag: system

Ep. 46: Ralph Vince Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ralph Vince
Ralph Vince

My guest today is Ralph Vince. Vince is by profession a computer programmer writing analytical programs for funds, large traders and professional gamblers. He is the author of five books on investing in his field of expertise, portfolio management and portfolio/trade optimization.

The topic is trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Optimal bet sizes
  • Whether Ed Thorp’s work and the Kelly criteria had any effect on Vince’s work
  • The importance of knowing the optimal spot depending on your criteria
  • Why maximizing profits can result in a large drawdown – and why you should be happy about that
  • If diversification really does give you a free lunch
  • The importance of learning the wrong approach

Listen to this episode:

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Trend Following Philosophy: Dedication and Belief

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Let me start by saying thanks for taking trend following to the masses. The podcasts are excellent. Listening to how successful system traders started out, most of them quite modestly, reinforces my discipline and “belief” (Van Tharp) in trend following. I’ve been committed to systems trading for about a year now. I had researched Trend Following online and ultimately ordered Trend Following and The Little Book. After reading those I never looked back.

I’m definitely not high net worth, so the best I can do to support your endeavor is buy your books (done, done, done & done) and watch Broke (also done). I also left a good podcast review on iTunes a while back. I like your no bullshit delivery. Saying stuff like “hey guys, buy my books already” is so refreshing (or genius marketing). I got a kick out of your “amazon purchase” challenge in a recent podcast. Ironically, I had ordered Commandments and TurtleTrader only a few days before which I look forward to reading.

I also promote your stuff to anyone who will listen but I must admit that finding an audience is not that easy. Example, I loaned Trend Following (my bad, should have gifted) to a friend who is a computer programmer and talks about investing a lot, thinking it would click for him. I was disappointed when he returned the book unread. I was also hoping he might work with me to tinker with system development and testing. So much for that.

I’m currently trading a group of fairly liquid ETFs listed on the TSX offered by Horizons. They have interesting leveraged products with exposure to basic commodities, sectors, and indices. Both directional and inverse which allow you to go short without getting stuck not being able to borrow shares. My system is very basic and I believe fairly robust. I’ve back tested it manually, incorporating proper position sizing across all the ETFs that I track (major work) and it showed positive returns.

I love that the trading component of my approach only requires 20 minutes a day adjusting orders and stops. This really fits my personality, mindset and schedule since I have a day job. I have yet to be profitable (equity curve attached), but I think the fact that I’m sticking with it is an indication that I get it. My diversification needs improvement so I’m considering Futures trading to get away from high-ish correlation of the ETFs I track. First, I need to get some trades (and equity) under my belt.

Anyway, keep the podcasts coming, but please find time to write new chapters to your “bible“.

Discovering trend following is reward enough and I just wanted to say thanks.

Cheers! Georges

Thanks!

More on the philosophy of Trend Following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1: Mike Dever Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Dever
Michael Dever

My guest today is Mike Dever, an American businessman, futures trader, entrepreneur, and author. Dever is the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, Inc., an investment management firm founded in 1982.

The topic is Trend Following.

Listen to this episode:

Pencil and Paper: The Secret to Success?

Posted on by Michael Covel

One of John W. Henry’s associates elaborated on the early days:

“Originally all of our testing was done mechanically with pencil and graph that turned into lotus spreadsheets, which was still used extensively in a lot of our day to day work. With the advent of some of these new modeling systems like system writer, day trader and some of the other things, we’ve been able to model some of our systems on these products. Mostly just to back test what we already knew, that trend following works.”

Had this same conversation this year with one of the interviewees for my book The Little Book of Trading. The difference? He was not talking of thirty years ago, but about being success today!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Richard Dennis Trading Misrepresentation

Posted on by Michael Covel

From a reader:

Michael, I am interested in learning about trend trading and read a lot of amazing things about the turtles. However, I tried to find something online about Richard and his staggering losses during the late 80’s and 90’s. Maybe I am missing something here, but is there a reason that his system was not working after a certain period? Is there an article or resource you could point me to? Thank you.

Your premise/predicate is off. You got it correct that Dennis had losses, but you need to see the whole picture. The full story of these issues is here.

Lesson? The Internet is a limited source of knowledge. Find out more about Richard Dennis books here.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Visual Way to NOT Be a Trend Follower

Posted on by Michael Covel

This is not the trend following day:

A top trend following office resembles that of an attorney, CPA or insurance salesman–no busy types glued to screens pretending to be masters of the universe. Trend following is an intellectual game, not a software/screen/juice game.

Note: Before someone screams bloody murder, of course for some multi-billion dollar fund there might need to be more daily execution issues, but the trend following itself is not about being connected to a screen 24/7.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Man Investments Employee Sounds Off

Posted on by Michael Covel

Someone from Man Investments posted this today:

“As an employee of one of the largest CTAs I can catagorically [sic] state that we do change our models. This is, amongst other things, what us researchers are employed to do. I think that the assumption that all major CTAs run the same or similar models is also fairly amusing. Not all CTAs using EWMAs for example. At our shop we use four types of models to determine the level of momentum from markets, EWMAs being just one.”

Later in the day the same person posted:

“I agree that they are not changed every day but it is not as black and white as you appear to be making it.”

So you have a system that changes the system at Man?

Isn’t that a system?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.