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Ep. 349: Donald MacKenzie Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Donald MacKenzie
Donald MacKenzie

Michael Covel speaks with Donald MacKenzie on today’s podcast. MacKenzie is a Professor of Sociology at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland. He works on the sociology of markets, focusing on automated trading, the use of mathematical models, and the evaluation and trading of bonds. MacKenzie has worked in the past on topics ranging from the sociology of nuclear weapons to the meaning of proof in the context of computer systems critical to safety or security. Covel and MacKenzie discuss economic models; self-fulfilling prophecies and economics; our beliefs and the social world; the definition of performativity; Mackenzie’s analysis and study of the Black-Scholes model; Long Term Capital Management; reflexivity; the intellectual gap between purveyors of the efficient market hypothesis vs. behavioral economists as reflected in the 2014 Nobel Prize winners; and the arms race in high frequency trading. Donald MacKenzie’s book mentioned is called An Engine, Not A Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets.

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Ep. 348: Michael Covel Monologue and Interview on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel Monologue and Interview on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel Monologue and Interview on Trend Following Radio

Today on the podcast, Michael Covel opens up with a monologue and closes with an interview of him covering trend following ‘fundamentals’. Covel opens up by discussing how the phrase “black box” is used to marginalize those who practice trend following trading. Next, Covel plays an interview clip from James Simons, the chairman of Renaissance Technologies, who generated for himself over 14B USD all through models. The second part of today’s episode are highlights of Andrew Horowitz’s interview with Covel–an interview *of* Covel this time. Covel and Horowitz discuss the TurtleTrader story; black boxes, emotions, and computers; what trend following is from the most basic level; the question of “why”, and why it might not be as important as many people think; finding which markets to enter; finding the optimal bet size; and how Fed intervention plays into the market.

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Ep. 346: Gavin Serkin Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Gavin Serkin
Gavin Serkin

Michael Covel speaks with Gavin Serkin on today’s podcast. Serkin has been writing about developing economies for the better part of two decades as the Editor of Portfolio International magazine and more recently as the head of the emerging markets international desk at Bloomberg News in London. Serkin led Bloomberg’s coverage of the credit and derivatives markets from 2004 to 2008, winning the Society of American Business Editors & Writers’ Best in Business Award and the Society of Professional Journalists’ Deadline Club Award. Frontier, his new book, is a vivid travelogue of ten countries with the potential to lead economic growth in the coming decade. Covel and Serkin talk about safety issues in frontier lands; men and women in frontier countries; global brands and the direction we’re headed; going through Vietnam with Mark Mobius; Myanmar and violence; relations between the US, China, Vietnam, and Myanmar; Nigeria’s economy and where it’s headed. For more information on Gavin Serkin, visit frontierfunds.org.

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Ep. 345: Spyros Makridakis Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Spyros Makridakis
Spyros Makridakis

Michael Covel speaks with Spyros Makridakis on the show today. Makridakis is the Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is famous as the organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. His calling is to poke holes in the notion that we can forecast with accuracy. Covel and Makridakis discuss known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns; the two main types of uncertainty–“subway” and “coconut”; Jim Collins, one of the best-selling business book authors of all time, and why it might not have any use to us; medicine and chance; the placebo effect; acceptance of an uncertain world; and the illusion of control. Whitepapers mentioned in episode: https://www.trendfollowing.com/2015/04/23/spyros-makridakis-interview-followup.

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Ep. 339: Tim Price Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Tim Price
Tim Price

Michael Covel speaks with Tim Price on his second appearance on the podcast. Price is the London-based Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management. Price has over 20 years of experience in both private client and institutional investment management. Price regularly shares his views on his blog, The Price of Everything. What can we see in the central banks? What actinos have taken place in the last few years? Covel and Price discuss why the fundamentals are so ‘shocking’; FDR and the Great Depression; why government taking its hands out of the equation can be the solution in a recession or depression; why savers suffer in silence; the three scenarios that occur when you accept that much debt simply cannot be paid back (growth, default, or inflation); the standoff between Germany and Greece, and how the average German might feel today about common currency; and the lack of outrage of zero interest rate policy. For more information on Tim Price, visit thepriceofeverything.typepad.com.

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Ep. 338: K.D. Angle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

K.D. Angle
K.D. Angle

Michael Covel speaks with K.D. Angle on today’s podcast. Angle began trading the futures markets in 1979 and developed his first rules-based trading strategy in 1984. In 1985 he created a newsletter called “The Timing Device” that specialized in making specific trade recommendations in the futures markets. After 1995, Angle retired the newsletter and went into asset management on a full time basis while investing the majority of his time and resources into researching and developing rules-based strategies. Covel and Angle discuss Angle’s father’s history, who turned a two million dollar gold investment into a hundred million in just six months, and the lessons learned; whether there was an early trend trading influence beyond looking at Angle’s father’s career; Angle’s experience with Dunn Capital; freedom of location; 100% rule-based and systematic trading vs. adding discretionary elements to your system; and why the client part of the business is so important. For more information on K.D. Angle, visit anglecm.com.

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Ep. 335: The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel speaks with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh on today’s two-part Bitcoin episode. Andreas Antonopoulos is a technologist and serial entrepreneur who has become one of the most well-known and well-respected figures in Bitcoin. With Antonopoulos, Covel discusses acceptance of Bitcoin, and if the State could outlaw it; Third World and Second World acceptance of Bitcoin; the infrastructural needs for Bitcoin; Bitcoin fees and the cost of securing the network; currency issuance; why Bitcoin doesn’t rely on trust; why financial transactions are the most surveilled part of your life in America; the privacy aspect of Bitcoin; currency volatility and the difference between volatility and stability; and where you can get started with Bitcoin. Harry Yeh is Managing Partner at Binary Financial. Binary Financial LLC is an Investment management company focused on the crypto currency space, trading and facilitating large block trades for high net worth individuals and institutions. With Yeh, Covel discusses why Bitcoin is the most volatile alternative asset class, but why it still might be worth it to trade; how Bitcoin is a split between a commodity and a currency right now; being a speculator in Bitcoin and trading Bitcoin like futures contracts; Bitcoin adoption in China; why Bitcoin is tough as a store of value, but as great a trading opportunity; and finally, recommendations on Bitcoin wallets.

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