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Trend Following is for Everyone

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My only beef with Michael is that he advocates long-term TF as a strategy for everyone. I only wished he would emphasize that long-term TF ‘works’ because of diversification (I believe he is very much aware of it; so, there is no need for him to be ‘told’ so) and would alter his message to include such. Otherwise, I think, he is a good source of information on long-term TF.

Thanks for the nice words, but TF is for everyone. Whether they invest with whatever fund, manager or DIY (futures, ETFs, etc.).

Find Your Way to Trend Following Diversity

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Hi Michael,

I’ve read your books and am now onto the podcasts and really like the stuff. Very helpful. The podcasts are especially great because they can be digested easily while on the treadmill (as Jerry Parker says in your interviews).

So one of the realities of trend following is admitting you don’t know what comes next and to counter this inability to predict the future all markets will be traded to “diversify” hoping that one or two big winners pay for all the losers. In theory this is great. In practice, it can be rather difficult to get enough capital together to actually run a diverse portfolio of futures contracts…I suppose ETFs could work…Thoughts?

Thanks,
[Name]

The best way to find diversity as a trend following trader, and trading a diversified tracking portfolio, is via one of three instruments:

1. futures
2. leaps
3. etfs (leveraged)

Those give coverage on all market types.

Ep. 338: K.D. Angle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

K.D. Angle
K.D. Angle

Michael Covel speaks with K.D. Angle on today’s podcast. Angle began trading the futures markets in 1979 and developed his first rules-based trading strategy in 1984. In 1985 he created a newsletter called “The Timing Device” that specialized in making specific trade recommendations in the futures markets. After 1995, Angle retired the newsletter and went into asset management on a full time basis while investing the majority of his time and resources into researching and developing rules-based strategies. Covel and Angle discuss Angle’s father’s history, who turned a two million dollar gold investment into a hundred million in just six months, and the lessons learned; whether there was an early trend trading influence beyond looking at Angle’s father’s career; Angle’s experience with Dunn Capital; freedom of location; 100% rule-based and systematic trading vs. adding discretionary elements to your system; and why the client part of the business is so important. For more information on K.D. Angle, visit anglecm.com.

Listen to this episode:

Managed Futures Describes an Instrument, Not the Strategy. It’s Trend Following

Wall Street types love to call trend following trading ‘managed futures’. That makes no sense. Futures are an instrument, NOT a strategy. The largest so-called managed futures firms are trend followers. If you want acceptance, if you want confusion alleviated, then call the strategy something that makes sense. Jerry Parker, an original Turtle who runs a trend following managed futures firm, has said it well:

“I think another mistake we made was defining ourselves as managed futures, where we immediately limit our universe. Is our expertise in that, or is our expertise in systematic trend following, or model development. So maybe we trend follow with Chinese porcelain. Maybe we trend follow with gold and silver, or stock futures, or whatever the client needs. It’s called managed futures because that was the profit center at the FCMs. We’re trading these great systems, and testing, and making sure what we do has worked in the past. And being disciplined, and unemotional, and applying our methods to the futures markets. But limiting our trading to this one group of markets. We need to look at the investment world globally and communicate our expertise of systematic trading. You have Big Blue beating the world chess champion, and everybody saying yeah, that makes sense, I can understand that. We’ve not been able to maximize our opportunities with systematic trading. People look at systematic and computerized trading with too much skepticism. But a day will come when people will see that systematic trend following is one of the best ways to limit risk, and create a portfolio that has some reasonable expectation of making money. We’ve got to be there and ready to take advantage of the opportunity. I think we’ve mis-communicated to our clients what our expertise really is. Systematic trading is going to be better for everyone in the long run. Our methods will work on lots of different markets. The ones that are hot today, the ones that are not hot today. We don’t want to pigeon-hole ourselves as managed futures or commodities.”

Excerpts: Managed Account Reports

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