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Is Your Only Strategy “Trust”?

Peter Schiff states:

“The Fed’s failure yesterday to announce some sort of tapering of its QE program, despite the consensus of an overwhelming percentage of economists who expected action, once again reveals the degree to which mainstream analysts have overestimated the strength of our current economy. The Fed understands, as the market seems not to, that the current “recovery” could not survive without continuation of massive monetary stimulus. Mainstream economists have mistaken the symptoms of the Fed’s monetary expansion, most notably rising stock and real estate prices, as signs of real and sustainable growth. But the current asset price bubbles have nothing to do with the real economy. To the contrary, they are setting up for a painful correction that will likely be worse than the one we experienced five years ago. Following this playbook, the Fed will likely maintain the pretense that tapering is a near term possibility and that it has a credible plan on the shelf to bring an end to QE. In reality the Fed is stalling for time and hoping that the economy will inexplicably roar back to life. Unfortunately, hope is not a strategy.”

Stanley Druckenmiller (from Zero Hedge) states:

“A stock market at an all-time high would suggest we don’t have a problem with financial conditions.” In fact, Druckenmiller continues, the Fed “blew it… they had a freebie,” they could have started the process to “get us off the dope.” This action, or inaction, he warns “is going to make it so much harder for the next Chairman to start the process.” In fact, he concludes, that from beginning to end – once markets adjust from these subsidized prices – that the wealth effect of QE will have been negative not positive…this has forced us to buy securities at subsidized prices and when they adjust, at whatever point in the future, they will adjust immediately and on no volume.”

I don’t know the timing of when their wisdom will unfold, they don’t either.

But it will.

And what will you do?

Do you have a plan beyond trusting daddy government to tuck you in at night?


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Retirement Gamble on PBS

PBS Frontline throws cold water on the retirement dream. I paint a similar picture here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Performance
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Markets to Trade
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Right and Wrong

A recent conversation:

Luis: Hi Michael this last podcast is really amazing with Harry Dent. To be honest I live in Portugal and I don´t know what we need more to open our eyes from our Global State of Coma. Keep going with this amazing podcast.

Michael: Why did you like this one so much?

Luis: It is amazing that you keep explaining the manipulation in so many different ways and we just can´t see. And this one is from a more fundamental I hope more people understand now people just love this kind of numbers.

Michael: Some people think it is bad to discuss these issues–trade price alone they say. Sure trade the price for trading, but we as human beings can’t keep ignoring what is the appropriate way to run societies. There is a right and wrong.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Where Will All the Jack Come from to Pay All the Government Workers?

A CNBC excerpt:

Detroit, you’re not alone. Across the nation, cities and states are watching Detroit’s largest-ever municipal bankruptcy filing with great trepidation. Years of underfunded retirement promises to public sector workers, which helped lay Detroit low, could plunge them into a similar and terrifying financial hole.

ZIRP pushes stocks up & pension promises to government workers brings ’em down?

Who knows the answer.

But bet on volatility. Bet on trends.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Performance
Research
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Michael Mauboussin Will Make You Think

Michael Mauboussin appeared in my film Broke a few years back and I have always enjoyed his efforts. While not a trend follower much of his work dovetails nicely with the heart and soul of trend following success: human behavior and inefficient markets. Two recent Mauboussin works worth reading (PDF):

The Importance of Expectations. The Question that Bears Repeating: What’s Priced in?
Shaking the Foundation: Revisiting Basic Assumptions about Risk, Reward, and Optimal Portfolios


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
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About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Bailout Nation Started in 1998 with Long Term Capital Management

Bailout nation started in 1998 with the bailout of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). Here was their annual report (PDF) that made them the darling of the investing world back in the day. Why bring it up today? LTCM is arguably at the root of current 2012 chaos. The first cut so to speak.

Shout to Barry Ritholtz for the title borrow!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 27: Scott Patterson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Scott Patterson
Scott Patterson

My guest today is Scott Patterson, an American financial journalist and bestselling author. Patterson has made a career of reporting the subterranean inner-workings of the markets, writing for the Wall Street Journal, Rolling Stone, and Mother Earth News. His first book, The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It, was released in 2010.

The topic is his book Dark Pools: High-Speed Traders, A.I. Bandits, and the Threat to the Global Financial System.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Trace the history of high speed trading and electronic communication networks (ECNs) back to Josh Levine, who founded Island, the computer system that led to the high frequency trading we see today
  • Technological revolution behind Island, and how its transparency led to dark pools – opaque markets where bids and offers are not made public
  • Patterson goes on to propose that the entire market has gone dark
  • The relation of dark pools to the flash crash
  • The regulation of dark pools
  • How the real New York Stock Exchange is in a data center in the countryside of New Jersey

Listen to this episode:

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