Subscribe now and watch my free trend following VIDEO.

Tag: covel

Ep. 468: Irrationality with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Irrationality with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Irrationality with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Irrationality with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Law of demand
  • Behavioral economics
  • Experimental economics
  • How do you make bubbles go away
  • Using algorithms over emotions
  • Noise reduction
  • Statistical thinking
  • Understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty
  • Probability theory
  • Risk Communication
  • Unconscious things that make us fearful

At the beginning of the 20th century, the science fiction author Herbert H. Wells made the following prediction, ‘If we want efficient citizens in a modern technological society we need to teach them three things: Reading, writing and statistical thinking.’ That is, a good way to deal with risk and certainty. Now, today almost 100 years later we have taught in the investment world almost everyone to read and write, more or less, but not to think with risk and uncertainty. – Gerd Gigerenzer

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 466: Don’t Worship the Computer with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Don’t Worship the Computer with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Don’t Worship the Computer with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Don’t Worship the Computer with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • “Super computers”
  • Systematic trading
  • Creating algorithms
  • Coding
  • Machines replacing humans
  • Breaking down the use of software

“…The power of computers owes nothing (save speed) to the causal peculiarities of electrons darting about on silicon chips…” – Daniel Dennett

“Trend following trader = CPA not AI singularity theorist.” – Michael Covel

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 463: Jack Schwager Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jack Schwager
Jack Schwager

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

My guest today is Jack Schwager, an American trader and author. He is the author of the Market Wizard series. His books have remained relevant over the past 25 years, and for many traders they are the best trading books on the shelves today.

The topic is his Market Wizard series.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Trading legends
  • Futures markets
  • Equity markets
  • Gaining clients as a new trader

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Ep. 462: Axe Capital with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Axe Capital with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Axe Capital with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Axe Capital with Michael Covel on Trend Following. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Baseball politics
  • Asking for permission
  • “Billions” (TV show)
  • Insider trading

“Why do we have to tell them what they need to hear, why can’t we tell them what they want to hear.” – Ron Burgandy, Anchorman II

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Trend Following Is Not Day Trading

Posted on by Michael Covel
If your desk looks like this you are in trouble.
If your desk looks like this you are in trouble.

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

This is [Name] from Malaysia. I am inspired by your book series, Trend Following, TurtleTrader, The Little Book of Trading and Trend Commandments. For the past two months I have been doing paper trading using the turtle trading system I learned from your book and the results were promising.

Last night I listened to your podcast episode 458 on continuous improvement. In the speech you mentioned if one is using trend following in day trading, go away! I was shocked to hear that. For the past two months, I am using the 15 min and 30 min charts on most of my commodities and futures trading. The reason is if I use the daily chart to trade, the N value (ATR) is too big and my capital is very limited, plus the difference in currency exchange between USD and MYR.

Moreover, in the same podcast you mentioned it is gambling staring at the computer screen whole day–which is what I might result in doing if I use the 15 min or 30 min chart. And trend followers don’t do that?

With regards,
[Name]
Malaysia

Not a new message from me about day trading. I say across my books. I say here.

You can’t effectively trade a 6 month move as a day trader, for example. You can find more here:

trendfollowing.com/resources

trendfollowing.com/capital

trendfollowing.com/products

Limited capital? It will probably be even more limited soon enough with more day trading!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Great Fundamentals Debate and Emotional Response

Posted on by Michael Covel
Emotional
Emotional Rescue 911

A recent email interchange:

Hello there Michael, I’m a 20 year old Swede who really likes trading, as well as your work. First of all I would like to thank you dearly for your great podcasts and books. It surely is an entire joy every Monday & Friday when a new podcast comes out. More important, it seems quite amazing that you share more or less all the fundamental views I hold toward the world. Actually, I, just like you, read Ayn Rand at an early age which changed me a lot. And finding you who preserves those views is fantastic! Since I respect you so much I would like to ask you some things about trading. Now, I know you are really in to the trend following path, and I agree on most part of your analysis towards it. However, I believe that the fundamentals sometimes can be really important as well. For instance, one strategy that has served me well has been to short gold whenever the market tends to believe 3-4 rate hikes is on the play, and then go long on gold whenever the market tends to believe the rate hikes is off the table. This of course is related to the gold being priced in USD and then obviously gains when the USD fall. Now that might not be a fundamental strategy but more of a “market sentiment orientated strategy…” However, I wonder, do you ever use any fundamental analysis or do you only use technical tools such as SMA & EMA? Least but last, I would like to ask you if it would be possible to hold an interview with someone from Zero Hedge?

“Sometimes”?

“Tends to believe”?

“Whenever”?

“On the play”?

Everything I just put in [bold] is guessing? No specificity? There are exact rules with precise numbers? Or just intuition or hunches? See the problems here?

Response:

I really don’t get why you need to be so mean? Just because you need to have an 100% absolute concrete trading strategy doesn’t mean that everything else sucks. It’s just pathetic to respond to me like that, so regarding my initial question, never fucking mind!

—

This interchange offers observers a great chance to go investigate the work of Daniel Kahneman. Read my Email Debate on Drawdowns.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Financial Predictions v. Weather Predictions

Posted on by Michael Covel
Cuter than CFAs
Cuter than CFAs

Feedback in:

Michael, I just wanted to take a moment to thank you for your work. I have read most of your books and they are exactly what I needed. You see I am a veteran of the brokerage business (30 Years) and I have always known intuitively that something about the entire business was, and is, a lie. Analysts have no skin in the game, management doesn’t care if you make money, it’s all about assets under management that’s why they will never say sell. “Just buy more.” You see I used to look at CFA’s as the smartest people in the room. Now I know that they are really just financial weathermen trying to predict the future. Something that can’t be done. I have adopted for my clients a simple trend following rules based strategy, and it amazes me how hard it is to change minds. It is so simple they somehow think it can’t work. But I will keep plugging away and I know you will to. The business needs to change even the other brokers in my office look at me like a freak when I tell them to stop listening to analyst’s and “stop buying stocks that are going down.” Old habits die very, very hard. Just wanted to say thanks.

Thanks!

Looks like this feedback was inspired by my recent interview here.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.