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The Great Fundamentals Debate and Emotional Response

Emotional Rescue 911

A recent email interchange:

Hello there Michael, I’m a 20 year old Swede who really likes trading, as well as your work. First of all I would like to thank you dearly for your great podcasts and books. It surely is an entire joy every Monday & Friday when a new podcast comes out. More important, it seems quite amazing that you share more or less all the fundamental views I hold toward the world. Actually, I, just like you, read Ayn Rand at an early age which changed me a lot. And finding you who preserves those views is fantastic! Since I respect you so much I would like to ask you some things about trading. Now, I know you are really in to the trend following path, and I agree on most part of your analysis towards it. However, I believe that the fundamentals sometimes can be really important as well. For instance, one strategy that has served me well has been to short gold whenever the market tends to believe 3-4 rate hikes is on the play, and then go long on gold whenever the market tends to believe the rate hikes is off the table. This of course is related to the gold being priced in USD and then obviously gains when the USD fall. Now that might not be a fundamental strategy but more of a “market sentiment orientated strategy…” However, I wonder, do you ever use any fundamental analysis or do you only use technical tools such as SMA & EMA? Least but last, I would like to ask you if it would be possible to hold an interview with someone from Zero Hedge?


“Tends to believe”?


“On the play”?

Everything I just put in [bold] is guessing? No specificity? There are exact rules with precise numbers? Or just intuition or hunches? See the problems here?


I really don’t get why you need to be so mean? Just because you need to have an 100% absolute concrete trading strategy doesn’t mean that everything else sucks. It’s just pathetic to respond to me like that, so regarding my initial question, never fucking mind!

This interchange offers observers a great chance to go investigate the work of Daniel Kahneman. Read my Email Debate on Drawdowns.

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