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Ep. 271: The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Ep. 270: Laurie Santos Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Laurie Santos
Laurie Santos

My guest today is Laurie Santos, a professor of psychology and cognitive sciences at Yale University. Her research explores the evolutionary origins of the human mind by comparing the cognitive abilities of human and non-human primates. Santos is able to look at monkeys and their behavior in markets and money, and see the similarities with humans.

The topic is cognitive abilities.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Santos’ early “ah-ha” moments
  • Teaching monkeys about currencies
  • Whether the monkey economy is as irrational as ours
  • The endowment effect
  • How monkeys’ behavior in markets quantitatively matches human behavior
  • Whether some monkeys took to the experimental economy better than others
  • Mistakes and predictable errors
  • Why humans might be uniquely irrational when it comes to enjoying what we pay more for
  • Vernon Smith’s work
  • Relationships between Santos’ work and the financial crisis of 2008
  • Bubbles, monkeys, and Daniel Kahneman
  • The “G.I. Joe fallacy”
  • Why we have trouble accepting cognitive limitations rather than our biological limitations

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Ep. 269: Robert Aumann Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Aumann
Robert Aumann

My guest today is Robert Aumann, the fourth Nobel Prize winner to appear on this podcast. Aumann is an Israeli-American mathematician, and a member of the United States National Academy of Sciences. He is a professor at the Center for the Study of Rationality in the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

The topic is game theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Conflict and cooperation through game theory analysis
  • World via his game theory perspective
  • Meeting John Nash and Aumann’s early background
  • What game theory is trying to accomplish
  • The economic definition of rationality
  • The idea of a strategy matrix
  • The world champions of peace and the best way to maintain peace
  • The 2008-09 bailouts from Aumann’s perspective and a game theory outlook
  • Behavioral economics
  • Game theory, diplomats, and the Cuban Missile Crisis
  • The existence of nuclear weapons and the Cold War

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Singapore Calling!

Feedback in:

Dear Michael:

Having just recently finished ‘The Complete Turtle Trader’, I must commend you on a very informative (& readable) analysis on the development, success & continued relevance of the original Turtle program. For guide, I am based in Singapore as part of [Name] derivative trading team. As you spend a fair bit of time in the region, it would be a pleasure to meet for lunch (or dinner) on your next stay here.

Regards,
[Name]

Next time, 100%.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Listen, I surrender, you beat me Mr. Market, now where do you want to go?”

Feedback in:

Hey Michael,

Recently I started listening to your podcast and have been researching a bit of what you have been saying. I find your podcast I be extremely informative. I think sometimes it’s the kind of kick in the ass the public needs so I am glad you are out there speaking your mind on a lot of important topics.

I did find a lot of research verifying that trend following is a valid strategy and one where a lot of people have made a decent amount of money. However, I couldn’t find very good information as far as annual returns over the long-term goes. Can you send me some of this?

The trend following system, in general, makes a lot of sense. Trends happen, obviously. Those who want to be a passenger can be and can make a lot of money. Intuitively I like the idea. It appeals to my sense of logic. You’re not trying to figure out anything. You’re merely saying, I don’t know where this will go, it seems to be going somewhere, and you buckle your seat belt. The seat belt is the stop-loss in this analogy.

Anyhow, just wanted to send a kudos your way. Keep up the good work. Would like to hear you talk more about a lot of people that are in boats they never thought they’d be in. For instance, in my case, I got myself into a lot of debt via students loans. It’s not an easy ride in this economy to have a degree no one cares about (I have an MBA). Agree with the entrepreneurial lifestyle. I worked a dead-end job for a bit of time and now am ready to move on to something new and try to get out of the “zombie-like” mindset.

I have subscribed to a while to value investing and found lots of research to show it does work. The problem with value investing, compared to trend following, is that it takes a tremendous amount of work to try to figure out something the market doesn’t already know or find where the market differs from the underlying value of a company. Trend following seems to hold up the white flag and say, “Listen, I surrender, you beat me Mr. Market, now where do you want to go?”

Regards,
Larry H.

Thanks! Data? See.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 262: Terry Burnham Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Terry Burnham
Terry Burnham

My guest today is Terry Burnham, an economist who studies the biological and evolutionary basis of human behavior. He has a Ph.D. in Business Economics from Harvard University, a Masters from the MIT Sloan School with a concentration in finance. Terry was a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, the University of Michigan, and the Harvard Business School. His non-academic experiences include working briefly for Goldman, Sachs & Co., being the chief financial officer for Progenics Pharmaceuticals , a start-up biotechnology company, and being the director of portfolio management for Acadian Asset Management, a quantitative equity manager.

The topic is his book Mean Markets and Lizard Brains: How to Profit from the New Science of Irrationality.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Burnham removed $1 million from his Bank of America account and said “I don’t trust the banks”
  • The two ways to think about risk
  • Separating the ideas of luck and skill
  • The lizard brain and how it relates back to our choices
  • A story about interacting with Paul Tudor Jones
  • Why markets have momentum
  • The great driver of conformity
  • Rationality and irrationality
  • Captive chimps vs. chimps in the wild and the differences in behavior
  • Predicting when the Fed will step in
  • Thinking of the worst case scenario for equities and looking to Japan for an example
  • Negative interest rates

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Ep. 261: Andy Puddicombe Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Andy Puddicombe
Andy Puddicombe

My guest today is Andy Puddicombe, the founder of Headspace, an award-winning digital health platform that provides guided meditation sessions. Puddicombe is a former Buddhist monk with a degree in Circus Arts.

The topic is meditation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Puddicombe’s background and how he came into the position he is in today
  • Some traumatic events which may have had an influence on Puddicombe’s decision to become a monk
  • Covel’s own meditation experience
  • Comparing mindfulness and meditation
  • The importance of a daily practice
  • Stress and the science behind meditation
  • Neuroplasticity
  • The wandering mind and unhappiness
  • The idea of the present moment, and how traders that embrace the present moment have an advantage
  • Intuition

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