Once you see how the system is trying to manipulate you, you can’t go back to your old way of thinking. The talking heads and holy grails are everywhere you turn:
Michael, I saw this on the front page of the Yahoo finance page this morning and got a good laugh. After listening to your podcast I notice these little nuggets all the time.
Hi Michael. Keep up the great work and the podcasts. Love ’em. I haven’t emailed you (as former customer) for years BUT I thought of you when I read this (ignore the website, it’s only ever bearish, but the CNBC clip attached is hilarious!). Why is it so funny? Because after Fed minutes the market tanked, then CNBC talking heads apparently said to buy it, then it rallied, then they came on TV and all gave themselves high fives for “nailing” such a great call as it went unchanged. But in the last half hour it tanked and I don’t think they told the viewers they’re retracting their high fives! One of the good things about trading in Australia is that you can sleep thru the BS because the NYSE closes at 6am, so we wake up to the only thing that really matters; the closing price!
Media volatility makes more people and more ideas famous for ever shorter periods of time. What the fine art market shows us, though, is that real value isn’t created by this volatile fame. Consistently showing up on the radar of the right audience is more highly prized than reaching the masses, once then done. This works for every career, even if you’ve never touched a brush.
My work, my creativity, my thought–is driven around reaching the right people–not necessarily the masses.
Think about what drives the masses.
But: “Covel, Why Are You Not on CNBC All of the Time?”
“If you torture data sufficiently, it will confess to almost anything.”
When you hear market cons talking of data mining, endless optimization, & torturing data, etc., check to see if your wallet is still around. Good trend following trading systems fit like a loose mitten, not a tight glove.
Yes, you need a technical indicator as part of your trend following system, but you need those links even more for a chance at profit in our charmingly chaotic world.
Is it all good out there? Stuff I found to be white noise, but clearly popular:
My new book Trend Commandments tackles financial news head on. An excerpt where I analyze a CNBC interview with trend trader David Harding:
Joe Kernen is not devoid of academic intelligence. He holds a bachelor’s degree from the University of Colorado in molecular, cellular, and developmental biology and master’s degree from Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He worked at several investment banks including Merrill Lynch. I am no Harding fanboy or apologist, but I have spent time with him. That research time, coupled with his public career and track record, make him one of the most learned trend trading voices of the past twenty years. It is clear to me that Kernen had a preformulated agenda [in the interview]. His questioning was a transparent attempt to marginalize Harding and trend following. Why would Kernen do that? Imagine if the interview started like this:
“We at CNBC believe in efficient markets and the use of fundamental analysis. Our business model requires viewers to watch. Today, we have a guest on who has made billions with trend following trading, which does not require fundamental analysis or CNBC. Would you like to know how to make money without ever watching our channel again? Welcome David Harding!”
So was Joe Kernen really that clueless before interviewing David Harding? Or was his apparent lack of knowledge regarding trend following done on purpose to try and marginalize Harding?