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Category: Trend Following

Go Zen With the Markets

Posted on by Michael Covel

A little Zen can go a long way in the markets:

You. Right. Again. http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/01/a-little-meditating-helps-you-make-better-business-decisions/

Gary

Thanks. Excerpt from the research:

Research participants who had spent just 15 minutes in “mindfulness” meditation, focusing on their breathing, were 77% more likely than others to resist what’s known as the “sunk-cost bias,” the tendency to stick with a less-than-optimal strategy merely because a lot of money has been sunk into it, says a team led by Andrew C. Hafenbrack of Insead business school in France. In a fictional scenario, the participants had to decide whether to buy a highly efficient $10,000 machine shortly after spending $200,000 on equipment that was much less efficient (and couldn’t be sold). Meditation’s impact on the sunk-cost bias may have to do with its ability to improve mood and decrease people’s focus on the future and past, the researchers suggest.

Source: Go.

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Speculation: The Root of All Evil?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Is speculation the root of all evil? Consider this excerpt from my third book, Trend Commandments:

The film director Oliver Stone believes that speculation is evil. That’s interesting. He has written some fantastic scripts. He has directed Oscar-winning films. Nevertheless, to say that speculation is “the mother of all evil” is disingenuous. When Stone sets forward to make a new film, he’s speculating that you will spend your money and watch his film. There is nothing wrong with that. That’s life. That’s a good thing.

Speculation in markets is essential too. Think about what drives a market. It is millions of people speculating to make money. One of the most successful trend following traders knows deep down how important speculation is to finding opportunity:

“Speculari, the Latin root of the verb “to speculate” has the literal meaning to observe. To be successful this observation must, of necessity, be detached and unemotive and thus where great social and moral issues are at stake, it is perhaps not surprising that distrust and hostility among the general population can arise particularly when the speculator profits at a time of general discontent. Yet this detached observation is clearly in the spirit of the natural scientist and the act of speculating for money is in the spirit of the empirical scientist’s restless yearning to add to empirical knowledge and put theories to the test.”

Regardless of whether you win or lose, you are speculating—trying to get ahead. Every time you get into a car, you are speculating. If you go to the Apple store to buy an iPhone you are speculating the phone is more valuable than your dollars. Additionally, you are speculating the iPhone will work. When you turn on a show you are speculating that it is worth more than something else. All of these activities don’t always work out, and that is the nature of speculation. All speculators are not winners.

So why is it bad to take advantage of an opportunity that you recognize? It’s not.

Speculate this: Do you consider yourself an investor or a trader? Investors put their money into investments hoping value will increase over time. Typically, they have no plan if it goes down. They usually hold on, praying value will reverse and go back up. Investors typically succeed in bull markets and lose in bear markets. They usually have no coherent response when the losing starts. They often hang tight and continue to lose even more.

Traders are different. They have a defined strategy to put money to work for a single goal: profit. Wise trend traders do not care what they buy or sell as long as they end up with more money in the long run. Bottom line, winning traders don’t invest, they trade. It is a massive distinction. Consider timeless qualities essential to speculation:

    1. Self-reliance: A man must think for himself and must follow his own convictions. Self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.
    2. Judgment: That equipoise, that nice adjustment of the faculties of one to the other, which is called good judgment—essential to the speculator.
    3. Courage: That is, confidence to act on the decisions of the mind. In speculation, there is value in the dictum: Be bold, still be bold; always be bold.
    4. Prudence: The power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. There should be a balance of prudence and courage; prudence in contemplation, courage in execution.
    5. Pliability: The ability to change an opinion, the power of revision. He who observes and observes again is always formidable.

I don’t care whether you ever trade, but those precepts should be the first life lessons taught to grade school kids.

Live it. I like that Covel. Wise excerpt.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following in Bulgaria

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel, My name is [name] and I am Assistant professor in Investments at Faculty of Economics and Business Administration at Sofia University in Bulgaria. I am also a portfolio manager, trader and since last year – sole publisher of books on investments. In 2012 and 2013 with the help of some friends (traders) I organized [seminars here]. These seminars were open to anybody in Bulgaria, willing to hear from professionals how to trade and to follow the trend. One of the lecturers last year [name] suggested to us your book The Complete TurtleTrader. I read it and I liked it very much. And I thought that it will be a good idea if I translate it and publish it in Bulgaria (there are people, who trade or would like to trade, but do not know enough English to read it). I saw on your website that you have other books too. So, I am writing to you to ask you if you would like to sell the rights to translate in Bulgarian and publish your books (or at least one of them) in Bulgaria? Also, would you like to participate on the next Trend Following seminar as lecturer? The seminar will be most likely in April this year. The lectures are done by Skype call.

What do you think?
Best regards,
[name]

Yes, my publishers can be connected with you to discuss rights issues. Which book? Seminars? What is your proposal? Do you ever have these where the presenter is there in person?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trade Your Way to Freedom

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent interchange:

Drew West: I love your podcast. What days do you regularly have it loaded?

Covel: No set schedule yet — maybe I need to fix that!

Drew West: How does a finance grad get a legit job in finance. Do I build a personal website and SEO it? I’ve listened to every podcast from day one and some multiple times, love the recent Tom Demark one…

Covel: I would first ask what you consider a legit finance job? Does job mean you work for someone?

Drew West: Almost anything as long as I’m not selling life insurance and bogus annuities driving around all day.

Covel: I would work more at getting more specific. Right now I have no clue what you know or what you want to do.

Drew West: I love trading.

Covel: Why are you not trading?

Drew West: Poor student loans. If I knew what I know now, I might not of went to college.

Covel: Make cash. Start trading. The way you make cash first might not be in finance nor does it have to be.

Drew West: I’m connected to Ned Davis on LI and tried meeting with him but I’ve learned he sold out like everyone else I know.

Covel: Who cares about anyone else. You have cash, you can trade. Get cash.

Drew West: Well I’ve tried quibids – but I’ve learned it would take tremendous capital to make profitable.

Covel: Never heard of that. Go standards: stocks, futures and options. That’s what to trade.

Drew West: Oh its just an auction site – alternative trading.

Covel: No gimmicks. Unless that is how you make the cash to go to real markets.

Drew West: Well I’ll take that into consideration… Save cash… Thx, do you prefer Michael or Mr. Covel?

Covel: Mike fine. Read “Linchpin” By Seth Godin.

Drew West: I did. I love Godin.

Covel: Don’t chase finance jobs.

Drew West: Ok I’m going to do pharma sales. I have medical experience and seems best option without doubt hopefully. Actually you don’t like hope, so I’m working towards doing that.

Covel: Make the cash. Then you have time and choices otherwise known as freedom.

Drew West: Cool thanks. Talk another time. Stay warm if you’re in that Virginia area, let me know if you come down to Florida. Ya freedom! Agreed.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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• Frequently Asked Questions
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 202: Barry Schwartz Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Barry Schwartz
Barry Schwartz

My guest today is Barry Schwartz, an American psychologist and author. He is a professor of Social Theory and Social Action at Swarthmore College. Schwartz’s psychological work is right there at the foundation of why any trader or investor will have success.

The topics are his books The Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less and Practical Wisdom: The Right Way to Do the Right Thing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Choice and practical wisdom
  • Choice in selecting a mutual fund, and how Schwartz has seen that unfold in corporations
  • The paradox of options
  • Having too much choice
  • Democracy and choice
  • The idea that decision-making has shifted from the expert to the individual
  • Why prescription drugs are marketed to people who can’t buy them outright
  • If choice drives clinical depression
  • Expectations
  • The idea of practical wisdom
  • Judgment and discretion in the workplace
  • Wisdom and the education system
  • Having a “script” from your employer that prevents you from thinking outside of the box
  • The importance of working with like-minded people
  • How things have changed since the 2008 financial crisis

Listen to this episode:

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I Want the Hate Too

Posted on by Michael Covel

Caught this review of my podcast while discussing “troll” aspects of modern life with my sister:

Michael Covel interviews some great guests on his podcast, and that’s the part I love about his podcast. When h[e] allows the guests to go deep into a topic, the interviews are tremendous. Things I dislike about these podcasts? Michael Covel constantly diverts conversations into meaningless specula about fed policy or starts a monologue about value investing and buy-and-hold. Good to hear once, but not on e[very] podcast! Also, he over all tends to talk like a “know-it-all”. Michael, allow guests to talk more about topics they’re good at and stop trying to be a “life” coach.

She then says remember the scene from Howard Stern’s film? I said no, so looked it up. Self-explanatory:

Researcher: The average radio listener listens for eighteen minutes. The average Howard Stern fan listens for, are you ready for this, an hour and twenty minutes.

Stern Associate: How can that be?

Researcher: Answer most commonly given: “I want to see what he’ll say next.”

Stern Associate: Okay, fine, but what about the people who hate Stern?

Researcher: Good point. The average Stern hater listens for two and a half hours a day.

Stern Associate: But… if they hate him, why do they listen?

Researcher: Most common answer: “I want to see what he’ll say next.”

Stern has made me laugh many times in my life.

Note: Great piece on dealing with haters.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Choosing a Fund Manager: Where to Start?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Michael, my name is Myles [name] and I am from Dublin, Ireland. I am 43 years old and my back ground is in construction. I have studied trading for the last 18 months, your books, podcasts and website have become the core of my research. Before I go any further, thank you for your work, it will be life changing for me and my family. I have recently purchased your latest system. So as you say yourself let me jump right in!

I came across your fantastic work while reading THE NEXT BIG INVESTEMENT BOOM by Mark Shipman. I think the story of how he started at 16 with almost no formal education and retired with a small fortune at 33 having borrowed £60k from family and friends would be a great story for your listeners. I would love to hear Mark interviewed on your podcast some day. Mark called the property crash in 2007 and also the commodity boom. Mark gives a couple of basic trend following systems using weekly charts.

Michael, I have read all your books and lots more that you have recommended. I realized I needed to educate myself further other than just reading books so I enrolled with the IIFT (Irish Institute Financial Trading) in Dublin, so I could understand the terminology and how to read charts, etc. IIFT are mainly Day Traders, and I realized that this was not for me over the long term, but I learned what I needed and also met two excellent teachers.

My intention is to continue developing my own trading plan and education through my enrollment in your training system. I feel more comfortable trading small until I progress over the years with help from your team. If I may please ask can you suggest any small to medium size trend following fund managers that I might engage with for the medium term with a view to investing 50/100K?

I understand the relevance of perhaps choosing a manager on a drawdown, and also the importance of understanding and agreeing the risk element of any investment, can you suggest other criteria particular to choosing professional fund managers? Finally, I should say that my inquiries may not be strictly within the bounds of your support package but this is where I am and I know I am solely and fully responsible for my own investments now and always. I am already extremely grateful for your guidance and I would very much like to meet you and have a snake heart in Saigon someday, or hopefully in Singapore this year, until then its fish and chips!

Sorry for rambling on, thank you.
Myles

I think the best option for finding a manager is to investigate the ones mentioned in my books. There are others of course and I implore you to investigate those too. In the context of my training we can also have some back/forth about the issues associated with selection.

Thanks for the nice feedback Myles.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.