I’ve been listening to your podcasts. Couple of things:
• Swearing… you swear less than me and I ain’t bad. I wouldn’t worry about it.
• I find everything I’ve listened to universally informing and amusing. If it wasn’t entertaining I’d have problems listening.
• I actually find your monologues more engaging than the interviews and they’re great.
• I started to listen when you were mentioned by Simon Black, and another person/group I read… Bill Bonner’s group. At about the same time.
On the podcast you offer to help me start. Please do! I don’t think I’d want to live in Saigon, but touring the area in a sail boat would be a wonderful way to spend a Wyoming winter. Assuming I can avoid pirates!
I thought you might like this. I found a cute little paragraph about trend following (use of technical analysis) in CFA level 2 Schweser notes. Love the last sentence:
Cheers,
Peter Schenk, Portfolio Manager, CIM
Trend Following Confusion
Thanks. Not surprising. Misinformation on top of misinformation.
Please enjoy my monologue Powerball Manipulation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
Trump as President
Lottery and Powerball
Changing American politics
Getting something for nothing
“Gambling is a tax on stupidity.” – Samuel Johnson
Josh Charlson, director of alternative-strategies research at Morningstar:
“It’s [Trend Following] a little bit of a black-box approach: We can understand the contours of it, but it’s not easy to see all the inside mechanisms.”
In 2016 those referring to trend following as black-box should be [blank].
My guest today is Bill Bonner, an American author of books and articles on economic and financial subjects. He is the founder of Agora Financial, as well as a co-founder of Bonner & Partners publishing. Bonner has written articles for the news and opinion blog LewRockwell.com, MoneyWeek magazine, and his daily financial column Bill Bonner’s Diary.
The topic is his book Hormegeddon: How Too Much Of A Good Thing Leads To Disaster.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Declining marginal utility
Unemployment
Negative interest rates
Myth vs. Reality
Government polling
“The fed’s try and stretch the addiction out as long as possible. Why? Because running a rehab clinic can be a good business, especially if the patients never recover. Patients are never allowed to hit bottom. They never get better, and the quacks bring more and more wealth and power to themselves and their friends.” – Bill Bonner
I was watching survivor last night with my mom and my mind was blown when the person who got kicked out said this:
I was very confident that whether we won or lost [the challenge] things would work out for me. I really don’t know what happened that made my tribe want to vote me out tonight. I don’t think the numbers lied to me, it’s the people that lied to me and when you count fictitious promises you get a fictitious total.
She was saying that she got kicked out because of the people, not the “numbers”, but the people are the numbers. They are who vote. Just like saying you don’t lose money because of what the market does, you lose money because of what other people do to make the market go up and down. Just trying to blame your loses on the “people” rather than “the numbers.” It’s all the same thing. The game is made up of people who make up the numbers.
