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Social Security Drama; It Never Dies!

Consider an excerpt from Trend Commandments [Update: Audio book now available!]:

Social Security is dead? Easier said than done.

On Meet the Press, one United States governor appeared confused: “If you care about democracy and what the everyday citizen believes, and you want to empower them, they don’t want the Social Security system to be dismantled, and they don’t want the Medicare system to be dismantled… this is a compact between generations to be able to make sure that all of our seniors have the funds when they retire, that they’re not going to be homeless, so they’re not going to have to go to a shelter.”

Did she know that the inflation adjusted return of Social Security is just 2 percent? A United States Senator on Meet the Press apparently did not: “Social Security is a program that works. It is fully funded for the next 40 years. Stop picking on Social Security. It’s not a crisis. Social Security is fine.”

Those politicians are not stupid; rather, they have ceased to think. Or, do they just need to tell a certain story to ensure power for whatever party with which they are affiliated? Waiting or hoping for your politician, on the right or the left or anywhere in between, to win an election is an investment strategy of your ignorance.

Behind the scenes and in the halls of Congress; drunks, perverts, and losers addicted to fame and power. Both sides. You can’t make money from them or social security. There are other options.

Process v. Outcome
Process v. Outcome

Ep. 440: My Sins My Own with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My Sins My Own with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
My Sins My Own with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Today on Trend Following Radio Michael Covel talks about personal responsibility. Michael brings in basketball references from the Boston Celtics and their head coach Brad Stevens. He goes into the accomplishments of Stevens as a coach and as a quant. Stevens coaching is all about numbers and probabilities.

Michael plays a clip from Chris Mannix of the Vertical Podcast with Brad Stevens. Stevens explains how he uses statistical analysis in his coaching and how the “best of the best” like to be coached. Most don’t care about a numbers to numbers speech but everybody wants to know how they can best play and attack situations. Michael circles the conversation back to trading markets and trading on the numbers. Mannix then asks Stevens if coaching is just coaching being on an NBA sideline as opposed to other sidelines? He says that the longer he has been a coach the more he has been able to take emotion out of the game and it has become a job. By the time a game nears the end he isn’t even thinking of the game, he is thinking of the next practice, and how he can make the team better.

Michael ends with reading interview questions that were asked to Stevens; “Is your calm demeanor a part of your coaching philosophy?” He says that his philosophy is doing 99% percent of the work behind the scenes and hopefully that is enough to prepare him for the next game. He is always thinking about the next play, therefore you will not see him doing cartwheels on the sidelines very often. Stevens is also asked, “How is the style of play at the professional level evolving?” He says the game use to be about height and weight as opposed to skill. The game is now being flipped around.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Process vs. outcome
  • Sports and trading analogies
  • Statistical thinking

“Think through all the possibilities, know the probabilities and be ready.” – Michael Covel

“Progress was not in the result, the progress was in the poise.” – Brad Stevens

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