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Ep. 96: Critical Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Critical Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Critical Thinking with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Critical Thinking the Trend Following Way with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 91: The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Six Inches Between Your Ears with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Wisdom from William Eckhardt

1. What is the state of the market?
2. What is the volatility of the market?
3. What is the equity being traded?
4. What is the system or the trading orientation?
5. What is the risk aversion of the trader or client?

Regardless of how you trade or invest … you better have those answers in advance of betting real money. Thank William Eckhardt for those perspective pearls. And yes–you answer with a number.


More on Pricetrader Bill Exkhardt.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Wall Street Jargon Defined from a Trend Following Perspective

A few of Wall Street’s favorite catch phrases need to be defined:

CTA: CTA stands for commodity trading advisor. It is a government term used to classify regulated fund managers who primarily trade futures markets. Almost all successful CTAs trade as trend following traders. CTAs are the other quants the media never seems to cover accurately.

Managed Futures: This is a term that describes regulated fund managers who use futures to trade for clients. It is an awful term because it fixates on the instrument (futures), not the strategy. Here’s the dirty little secret: Almost all successful managed futures trading firms use a trend following strategy. The term is often used interchangeably with CTA. Noted radio host and author Dave Ramsey recently had this to say about managed futures: “The term managed futures is virtually an oxymoron…with managed futures you’re basically betting on the future price of a commodity. What’s the price of gold, or oil, or wheat going to be somewhere down the road? You’re guessing as to what the future will bring, and managing a group of those guesses. What a joke!” If you share Dave Ramsey’s view and understanding, I recommend a full frontal lobotomy as your best wealth-building plan.

High Frequency Trading: High frequency trading is the latest term to describe arbitrage— at whatever time frame. It is about getting an advantage through speed and access. Most people are not going to enter the world of high frequency trading (or be Goldman Sachs). It’s a nonissue for your trading success.

Global Macro or Systematic Global Macro: Global macro is another term used to describe trend following traders, but indirectly. They do not say managed futures, and they do not say hedge fund, so it is global macro. It might make wealthy investors in Liechtenstein and Saudi Arabia feel more secure. The strategy is still trend following.

Hedge Fund: Think unregulated mutual fund that can trade in all markets up and down. Most hedge funds have terrible strategy: They are long only on leveraged stocks. That’s it. Not as sexy as the press makes it. Of course, it all depends, and some hedge funds do make a killing. Usually, they are of the systematic trend following variety.

Long Only: Long only means you make one bet. You bet that the market will always go up.

Buy and Hold: Buy and hold strategy (hope) is the same as long only.

Index Investing: You buy the S&P 500 Index and whatever it does is the return you get.

Value Investing: Attempts to use fundamentals to uncover undervalued stocks. The belief is you are buying cheap or low (terms that can mean anything to anyone). When that doesn’t work out, you call the government and ask for a bailout.

Quant: You use formulas and rules, not daily discretion or fundamentals to make trading decisions. That said, unless quant is defined with precision you can never know what it means exactly. Trend following is a form of quant trading.

Repeatable Alpha: Alpha is return generated from trading skill. If you buy and hold the S&P 500 Index, and if it makes a positive return, that’s not alpha. That return is beta for there was no skill involved. Repeatable alpha is simply the nice academic way of saying profit from skill. Trend following’s argument as the only repeatable alpha is tough to counter.

Beta: The return you get for accepting the average. There is no skill involved. Think about a monkey aimlessly throwing darts against the wall— it’s that level of skill. Long: You buy a stock or futures contract.

Excerpted from Trend Commandments.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 76: Jack Schwager Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jack Schwager
Jack Schwager

My guest today is Jack Schwager, a recognized industry expert in futures and hedge funds and the author of a number of widely acclaimed financial books. Schwager is one of the founders of Fund Seeder, a platform designed to find undiscovered trading talent worldwide and connect unknown successful traders with sources of investment capital. Previously, Schwager was a partner in the Fortune Group (2001-2010), a London-based hedge fund advisory firm.

The topic is his book Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don’t).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Schwager was able to make “Market Sense and Nonsense” accessible to both professionals and laymen and touch on some of the subjects contained within: market fallacies and misconceptions
  • The idea of cable news “experts”, and what would happen if you actually followed all of the picks made by people like Jim Cramer and other talking heads
  • Comparing performance streams against each other, and why you have to consider more than just the number
  • Volatility vs. risk
  • If coming to a good risk adjusted return is based more on a scientific approach or personal preference
  • Leveraged ETFs
  • The fear of hedge funds
  • The idea of leverage and why much of “Market Sense and Nonsense” was built around trying to understand it
  • Why fund-to-fund managers putting a large group of trend following traders together in one portfolio might not be a wise move
  • Presidential election and discuss why whoever is selected to be the next president might not make much of a difference in the markets

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Ep. 61: Your First Loss is Your Best Loss with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Your First Loss is Your Best Loss with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Your First Loss is Your Best Loss with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Your First Loss Is Your Best Loss with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 57: Dr. Alexander Elder Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Dr. Alexander Elder
Dr. Alexander Elder

Alexander Elder is on the podcast:

My guest today is Dr. Alexander Elder, a trader, educator and author. Dr. Elder’s unique and inspiring story starts with his dissatisfaction with the system in his home country of Estonia. At 23, while working as a ship’s doctor, he jumped a Soviet Union ship in Africa and received political asylum in the United States; he also ended up on the KGB’s wanted list. Dr. Elder worked as a psychiatrist in New York City and taught at Columbia University.

The topic is his book Trading for a Living: Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Experience as a psychiatrist provided him with a unique insight into trading
  • Psychology of trading
  • How a high degree of education can sometimes be a hindrance
  • The most dangerous personality traits to have as a trader
  • The stages of trader development
  • The importance of money management
  • The importance of keeping records and diaries of your trades
  • The notion of exiting long positions and shorting weakness
  • The similarities and differences between traders in different geographic locations
  • How financial markets can be like manic depressive patients

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