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Category: Trading 101

Ep. 311: Mebane Faber Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mebane Faber
Mebane Faber

My guest today is Mebane Faber, a noted author (The Ivy Portfolio), blogger, and portfolio manager with Cambria Investment Management. Faber is involved in many different areas of the market, extremely practical and pragmatic.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The podcast medium
  • Trend following, buy & hold, and emotions
  • Anti-fragility
  • Ray Dalio, risk parity, and his strategies All Weather and Pure Alpha
  • Asset allocation as a buy and hold investor
  • Faber’s five ETF’s, and his factors for starting one
  • Deflation, inflation, Japan, why traders run out of the store when things are on sale
  • Value investing
  • What if governments didn’t meddle with markets

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Ep. 310: Daniel Simons Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Daniel Simons
Daniel Simons

My guest today is Daniel Simons, an experimental psychologist, cognitive scientist, and Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Illinois. Simons is most well known for his work on change blindness and inattentional blindness, two surprising examples of how people can be unaware of information right in front of their eyes. His research interests also include visual cognition, perception, memory, attention, and awareness.

The topics are experimental psychology and cognitive science.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Simons’ YouTube success
  • The definition of inattentional blindness
  • Why our intuition about our own minds is often wrong
  • Money managers and weather forecasters
  • Serial tasking, multitasking, and focus
  • How Simons became immersed in this area of study
  • Memory and attention, and the myths and misconceptions surrounding them
  • The notion of intuition, gut decisions, and Simons’ thoughts on Malcolm Gladwell’s “Blink”
  • The idea of preparation in relation to expert performance
  • The science behind eyewitness testimony
  • How our minds don’t work the way we think they do

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Ep. 309: Mark Mobius Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mark Mobius
Mark Mobius

My guest today is Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team which is based in 18 global emerging markets offices, and manages emerging markets portfolios. Mobius oversees a team of more than 50 people managing some $45 billion.

The topic is economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Key events that happened along Mobius’ development and moved him to find emerging markets as his passion
  • Growth across Asia
  • The importance of being on the ground to see what’s happening in China to have a true picture of what’s going on
  • Why what’s happening in China now is entirely different from the USSR in the early 1980’s
  • The two Koreas, and whether we’ll see one Korea eventually
  • The impact of both North and South Korea on their own
  • Mobius’ outlook on Myanmar
  • Singapore as an emerging market, and as it is compared to a city in the States
  • India, its growth, and how Mobius sees it moving forward
  • The importance of travel, and how it changes everybody that goes out there and experiences it

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Ep. 307: Bryan Caplan Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Bryan Caplan
Bryan Caplan

My guest today is Bryan Caplan, an American economist and professor of economics at George Mason University, research fellow at the Mercatus Center, adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute, and blogger for EconLog. He works in public choice theory. His books include The Myth of the Rational Voter and Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids. He has also written extensively on open borders and pacifism.

The topic is economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Voting, rationality
  • Defining “rational irrationality”
  • What voting patterns in America might look like if the American stock market looked like the Japanese stock market
  • Economic growth in benevolent dictatorships vs. republics like the USA
  • The anti-poverty program in China
  • Caplan’s view on immigration and its effect on the economy
  • The case for more kids, and why Caplan was so passionate and so inspired as to put out a book on the subject
  • Why genetics matter more than the style in which you raise your kids
  • Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century” and wealth and income inequality

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Ep. 306: Tom Basso Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tom Basso
Tom Basso

My guest today is Tom Basso, the trader most famously known as “Mr. Serenity” in Jack Schwager’s “New Market Wizards”. Basso, now retired from managing client money, was president and founder of Trendstat Capital Management. Basso became a registered investment advisor in 1980, a registered commodities advisor in 1984, and was elected to the board of the National Futures Association in 1998. Today, he is a private trader.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • 50% drop in oil and why trend followers have done especially well with this price movement
  • Why people like to blame speculators, and the value of speculation; emotional rushes and emotional devastation
  • Mentally rehearsing catastrophic events
  • Focusing 1,000 trades into the future
  • Separating your trading from your political opinion
  • Trend following and behavioral economics
  • The importance of not letting your trading define you
  • Basso’s advice to newcomers to the CTA industry

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There Is Only One Turtle Story

Posted on by Michael Covel

How do you make it on Wall Street? Some feedback:

Dear Mr. Covel, My name is [Name] and I just finished reading “The Complete TurtleTrader” for the second time. I recently graduated college as a psychology major but I am determined to work in the finance/investment world. Therefore, two quotes from page 15 and 16 really spoke to me:

“I think it’s far more important to know what Freud thinks about death wishes than what Milton Friedman thinks about deficit spending.” “Go down to Wall Street today after work with the hot-shot traders all earning $500,000 a year at the big banks and you’ll find very few who talk about Freud being the ticket to making millions.”

I’m writing this email to get your advice. I’ve applied to many big investment firms and haven’t even gotten a call back. I’ve even applied to Vanguard as a lowly Client Relationship specialist just to get my foot in the door. I did get a call back from them, but it’s been two months.

How can I secure the career I desire? It seems as if nobody recognizes the importance of psychology in finance. I’ve read well over 100 investment books in the past two years, I’ve beaten the market and I’ve even started an investment/personal finance website. I’ve included this in my cover letters and there’s STILL nothing. Right now I plan to go at it on my own and take my Series 65 soon, but I wonder if there’s a better way.

Because your work really affected me and it seems as if you (and Richard Dennis) understand how I feel, what should I do?

Thanks a lot. I appreciate your time, keep up the amazing work!

[Name]

But you missed a big issue. The role of entrepreneur in investing, trading. Trading has a few stories of working for someone else, but the real way to freedom and success in the space is DIY. I would recommend a non-trading book: Linchpin by Seth Godin. 50 pages in I suspect you might see the flaw in your pursuit.

PS. Only one Turtle story.

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Ep. 304: Crude Oil Folly with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Crude Oil Folly with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Crude Oil Folly with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Crude Oil Folly with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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