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Category: Podcasts

Ep. 301: Jim Rogers Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jim Rogers
Jim Rogers

My guest today is Jim Rogers, an American businessman, investor and author currently based in Singapore. He is the Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc. He was the co-founder of the Quantum Fund and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI). Rogers does not consider himself a member of any school of economic thought, but has acknowledged that his views best fit the label of Austrian School of economics.

The topic is investment.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why it shows that the kind of people that travel are the kind of people you want in your country
  • Infrastructure in China
  • Stereotypes of various countries in Asia
  • China’s military
  • Current Fed policy in America
  • What “can-do” spirit can do in a state of decline
  • Why the next crisis might be worse than the last
  • The importance of language skills
  • Participating in big long-term bets with regard to countries
  • Why, if he could, Rogers would put all of his money into North Korea

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Ep. 300: Travis Jamison Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Travis Jamison
Travis Jamison

Please enjoy my monologue Michael Covel Monologue and Travis Jamison Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 299: Scot Billington & Jon Boorman Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Scot Billington & Jon Boorman
Scot Billington & Jon Boorman

My guests today are Scot Billington and Jon Boorman.

Billington is one of the managers of Covenant Capital along with Brince Wilford. Billington is the Chief Manager, Head Trader, and is responsible for all system development at Covenant.

Boorman is the President and CEO of Broadsword Capital, LLC, a Registered Investment Adviser in Charlotte, NC. Boorman has spent over two decades in global markets, witnessing first-hand some of the most tumultuous periods in financial history. Boorman started the Alpha Capture blog in January 2013 to keep a record of trading signals and market commentary, and demonstrate to a wider audience what could be achieved through trend following. The primary aim has always been to inform and educate.

The topic is trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Billington discuss his firm’s exceptional performance in September of 2014; why low volume and low volatility tend to be accompanied by low returns; whether all of Billington’s trend following trading is predicated on a weekly system; Billington’s background and what got him into the systematic trend following space; why simplicity is the ultimate sophistication; marketing vs. trading reality; why certain investors try and disguise their trend following strategies as something else; why trend following is one of the most repeatable, teachable strateges; why the world still believes in the efficient market hypothesis; why trends continue to emerge as a function of the marketplace; the idea of a barbell strategy; and why upside volatility is not such a bad thing.
  • Covel and Boorman discuss the fear of public speaking; the idea of ego in the context of both trend following and buy & hold systems; why you’d seek to minimize rather than eliminate both ego and emotion in the context of trading; how Boorman and Jerry Parker connected and Parker’s early influence on Boorman; both Parker and Boorman’s views on exit strategies; how Twitter changes the level of access we have to each other; whether Boorman’s RIA might move into a fund structure; and process vs. outcome.

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Ep. 298: Emanuel Derman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Emanuel Derman
Emanuel Derman

My guest today is Emanuel Derman, a South African-born businessman and writer, best known as a quantitative analyst. Derman, who first came to the U.S. at age 21, in 1966, is currently a professor at Columbia University and Director of its program in financial engineering. Until recently he was also the Head of Risk and a partner at KKR Prisma Capital Partners, a fund of funds.

The topics are his books My Life As A Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance and Models Behaving Badly.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why economics can be an ‘incestuous’ field
  • Economics as a moral science
  • Why all four of the US investment banks were not allowed to go by the wayside
  • Derman’s background and his PhD in theoretical physics
  • Derman’s early eye-opening experiences at Goldman Sachs
  • Model building, and how Derman was indoctrinated into the world of model building
  • The financial model and science and the physics model and science
  • Short volatility models vs. long volatility models
  • How one estimates risk
  • Models vs. theories
  • Whether Derman finds a certain amount of pushback from others in the academic community

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Ep. 297: Gabriele Oettingen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Gabriele Oettingen
Gabriele Oettingen

My guest today is Gabriele Oettingen, a Professor of Psychology at New York University and the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on how we think about the future, and how this impacts cognition, emotion, and behavior.

The topic is her book Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Positive thinking, optimism and over-confidence
  • How positive thinking can reign in your sense of urgency
  • The effect of positive thinking on us from a scientific viewpoint
  • Whether Oettingen views her work as an attack on the self-help industry
  • Oettingen’s process and how she views data
  • The WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan) process
  • Understanding each component part of WOOP
  • “Ah-ha” moments in Oettingen’s early development
  • The idea of WOOP as mental contrasting
  • Non-conscious processes

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Ep. 296: Ewan Kirk Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ewan Kirk
Ewan Kirk

Michael Covel interviews Ewan Kirk on today’s podcast. Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation. Covel and Kirk discuss how consistent and predictable profits are the Holy Grail–you’re never going to get there. Covel and Kirk also explore Kirk’s background, and how someone with a PhD in mathematical physics ends up going to work for Goldman Sachs; why computer programming is “today’s literacy”; standing out from the crowd; trend following in the European scene vs. America; weighting positions based on risk; talking to clients and explaining that losses are statistically inevitable; whether the demand for discretionary traders is waning; how discretionary traders look at a trader like Kirk who is 100% systematic; why discretionary intervention in a systematic trading strategy disqualifies it from being truly systematic; proving a strategy as broken rather than proving that it’s right; why randomness is everything; uncertainty and convictions about technique; capturing the realism of the world in your trading strategy; what actually benefits the economy, society, and the world; seeking client feedback and understanding a client’s drivers; and the importance of consistent marginal improvements.

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Ep. 295: Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink
Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink

My guests today are Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink.

Gigerenzer is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy.

Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University.

The topics are Gigerenzer’s book Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions and Wansink’s book Slim by Design: Mindless Eating Solutions for Everyday Life.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer’s views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin’s ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics.
  • Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose.

Listen to Susan Peirce Thompson’s views on dealing with willpower and using healthy eating habits to maintain the mental strength required for making financial decisions.

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