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Who’s Your Daddy?

A recent email conversation:

Ray: I’ve read all the books and saw the movie. I really enjoy the podcast. I’ve learned a lot from you work and look forward to seeing what new projects your working on. At times i may not agree with your rants, but it does make me think Thank you for all you’ve done.

Covel: Thanks. What do you disagree on?

Ray: Perhaps agree or disagree is not the proper term, for I find your work very enlightening. Though I agree with the argument you are making, at times I wonder if there is a better way to make. For instance, the image of Big Ben kissing me on the lips and tucking me in is not the most pleasant. I understand and agree with your point of view just not the visual image. Maybe it’s just the green tea talking.

Covel: Ah I see. Two ways I see that. Gross and a better image to be used perhaps. Or spot on and it makes people terribly uncomfortable to think about how much power they have entrusted to him. And that his position has truly become daddy-esque.

Ray: Did we entrust him with the power? He’s not elected. Or did he just take the power? 2008 provided a great opportunity for someone to grab power and Ben took as much as he could.

Covel: People have voted for the overall system (that includes Bernanke) to take care of them from cradle to grave. Sort of like when we are 5 years old and our parents tuck us in and give us a kiss.


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No “Calls” Here and No Apologies

Feedback in:

Can you please send me a list of all the historical trade recommendations you have made in the last 3 years? I am thinking of subscribing and would like to see your results. Thanks, Gary

I am not in the business of giving trade recommendations. My services are clear.


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Talking Loud and Saying Nothing

This email came in:

I am an avid listener of you podcast, I have read and seen much of your material and I have to say enjoy your controversial approach. I find it hilarious how you poke fun at the technical charting ‘fan base’, but like the many I have to say I would disagree that trend following is the only proven way. In short, I think we both agree risk management is the key to longevity whatever style you adopt, from many of the legends have been quoted that the style of trading is not the issue but finding a system which suits your personalty is critical. As 90 percent of any trade is psychological any system in the wrong hands is doomed to fail if executed emotionally even trend following. There are many famous technical traders all of which would have there profit and loss available to see from the same resources you produced when showing all the successful trend followers. I don’t think your argument towards the technicals is valid, but l do agree that trend following works and is a great trading strategy, l just think its a little naive to think its the only one. Keep up the good work, I really like your material.
Regards
James

Where is the data for the predictive technical analysis traders? Send me the decades of performance data. James Brown, and I say this with a smile, saw it:


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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John Paulson -65%

Davie Tate III writes:

Hey Mike. Davie Tate here. I was thinking about your recent podcast where you talked about how the sharks were posting Bill Dunn’s worst years to demonstrate the failure of trading. It reminded me of the recent articles on John Paulson. You may have read that his gold fund is doing horribly this year. Down 65%. Just like with Bill Dunn, people who don’t understand trading are just salivating over this demonstration of the “failure of trading”. The fund only represents 2% of Paulson’s funds. If this fund operates totally independently of his others funds then I might be inclined to agree with some of the criticism Mike. I can’t understand how any professional trader of Paulson’s caliber could allow his fund to lose 65% of assets. Also, I can’t understand why any professional trader could have looked at a gold chart for the past few years and decide to go long which is the only way that I can imagine that he could be down 65%. If he does incorporate counter trending strategies and was long then I don’t understand why his stops didn’t prevent such a massive loss. On the other hand Mike, if this fund does not operate totally independent, but operates as part of all of his assets, then my view would be totally different. A 2% investment of total funds under management while a bit high, is not a totally unreasonable amount for a professional to risk on a trade. Furthermore if that is the case, just think about it Mike. A 65% unrealized loss on a particular trade means you’re still in the trade. We are actually willing to risk 100% of the 1% or so that we risk on each trade. I don’t think some people realize that. If you have $100,000 trading account and you risk $1000, 65% down in that trade means you are still in the trade. The trade doesn’t end until you either get stopped at a 100% loss of the $1,000 or you take profits of 2:1 or 3:1 on that trade. Some people don’t seem to realize that about trading.

65% loss in one market is not trend following. Where is the cutting of loss? Maybe his strategy will work, but it’s not loss cutting. Dunn’s DD was from taking many small losses across many markets. Those add up to a DD. No one drop on one market. Plus, there really can’t be a TF fund on one market alone. No diversification.


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When the Trend Following Light Bulb Hits

Excerpts from nice feedback in tonight:

Michael, I want to thank you for pursuing your passion for trend following so tenaciously. I consider myself very new to the concept of trend following. I was first introduced to this style of trading and the story of the turtles traders in 2007 by a mentor of mine. I was 25 years old. At the time, I had become very interested in trading, stocks, and the allure of making money in the market. All the “knowledgeable and older” people I spoke to of this passion said there’s no such thing as fast money and it was best to stick with a buy and hold strategy. The message was, I should save 10% of my income and wait 40 years and I’d retire as a wealthy person. During this period, I read a few books on trading, mostly about using fundamental analysis and executing a buy and hold strategy to identify stocks with a high growth potential. I executed a few trades, made some money, lost some money and than walked away from trading believing it just wasn’t for me. I started funding my IRA and 401K using run of the mill mutual funds and put my active trading interest on hold. Fast forward to last summer, I am sitting in a tent in Kandahar, Afghanistan working for the U.S. Air Force. It’s the middle of the night and after reading on the Internet for days about trend following and the turtle traders story, I declared to a partner of mine. “I am going to teach myself how to trade.” He laughed at me and said you’ll likely lose all your money and for Gods sakes don’t buy some canned trading training program. He told me if your going to learn to trade, teach yourself, because that’s probable the only way that’s you’ll be successful. I thought it was good advice and I followed it. By the middle of the summer of 2012, I had become disgusted with the options I had for a executing a traditional buy and hold strategy. I had watched friends and family lose thousands of dollars in the 2008 crash, than gain some of it back, but at the same time, intuitively it didn’t seem right to me that I should be investing my hard earned money in mutual funds knowing those fund managers must be making millions on us “Joe Public”. Do they have my best interests in their hearts? What makes them smarter than me? How come it seems like the game everyone is playing is fixed? Additionally, I felt like having to be an expert in stock picking by reading companies balance sheets, or discerning broad trends, or by identifying hot market sectors through the news wasn’t going to work for me. I thought diversification only meant buying and holding different asset classes based on a defined time horizon. I didn’t understand what technical analysis was. By this time, I was trading here and there, but all the time, I felt like my activity was no better than guessing. I had no idea how much of an equity to buy, how long to hold, or what the function of a stop loss was. I didn’t understand the concept and application of trending following. I’d never heard of an automated trading system. Sitting in that tent, that very night, I went on Amazon bought 3 of your books, had them shipped to me in Afghanistan. I than began reading everything I could find on trending following, the turtle story and alternatives to discretionary trading. After I made this decision to teach myself to trade, it was as though something clicked in my mind. Ed Seykota says “intention = results”. Well I intended to learn to trade and I intended to use trending following as the vehicle. Thanks to the guidance, data, results, and discussions on trading software outlined in your books I’ve been able to make this happen. From your books, I’ve learned 90 percent of what I need to know about trend following and the rest was filled in by additional reading and through though trial and error. I kept thinking back to my past trading successes and failures, and realized I had been blindly making classic trading mistakes. After I made the decision to pursue developing an automated trending following system. I found the work in your books invaluable in solidifying and clearly defining a path to an alternative way of thinking and trading. Something about your descriptions of taking emotion out of the trading process was deeply appealing to my mind. Armed with all the evidence and knowledge from your work, I am now able to confidently say trend following is really the only method for trading that I can see will win in the long term. It was through your work that you lifted the val on this style of trading for me, and I’m sure, many other people like. In closing, I want to thank you for being so passionate about this style of trading. It comes through clearing in your books, on your websites, and in your podcast. Without your dedication and passion for trend trading, I wouldn’t be applying my own passion for being successful in my life. I just wanted to tell my story about teaching myself how to trade; going from zero to an active trading system by sheer determination with an intention to following a different path outlined through your work and others like you. Hopefully, I can endure the inevitable draw downs and second guessing that comes with trend following. Armed with the knowledge outlined in your work, I think I can.

Thanks,
Daniel

Winners just win. They want it. He wants it.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Secrets, Secrets, Secrets!

A composite conversation had over the years:

Why are you teaching trend following secrets?

There are no secrets. There is only knowledge you don’t yet possess.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Why Do Things Trend?

Feedback:

Michael, I very much appreciate your podcasts you do. As I have been working to do more and more trend following trades, I am finding my job very boring. In a good kind of boring way though! The podcasts keep me inspired. Also a thought for you. Have you spent much time listening to the sports broadcasts on ESPN or other sports channels? I feel like when I flip to CNBC anymore it is like fingers down a chalk board with all of the babbling. I have never been a big sports fan, but I do tune in during college football season a little more. I am now finding that Sports center is becoming like fingers down a chalk board as well. It is the same as CNBC, a lot of research and predictions based on very little other than opinions and drivel that often times never pans out the way one would expect! Thanks again for the work you do!

Does that mean I am not the chalkboard!?

You are definitely not the Chalk board…I thoroughly enjoy your material and it has helped me immensely! In fact I like it well enough I give your books out to some of my clients and bought the DVD trading course! I am going to apologize upfront that this email may get a little long and I know you are extremely busy but there is something weighing in my head that I thought you may be able to shed some light on, or point me in the right direction for some added information. I have been putting a lot of thought into the “Why” of Why a market moved up or down. I have posed this rather simple question to myself “Why do markets move higher or why do markets move lower – essentially why do they trend?” I think I have read nearly all of your material as well as several other books and have done some online research but have not yet found a satisfying explanation of why price moves higher or why price moves lower. I am not being critical of the information I have read and it may even be my own fault that I have glazed over something significant and may have missed the answer to my own question in your writings but for myself the question of “why” a market moves (trends) has been nagging at me for the last several months. As I have posed the question to myself, I have chosen to examine the question in the most general terms and in a way that is most robust to any market. Meaning that I am looking at in the broadest context and not necessarily in the minutia of the every few day moves or intraday moves but more generally why does price continue to generally keep moving in one direction or another for a period of time. From another perspective, I am looking at it in the context of what is the one common element across ALL markets that makes price go higher or go lower. I have two motivations for getting to the bottom of my “why” question. First, I have clients that call everyday with the same dumb question and it goes something like this – “why did the corn go up today or why did the cattle go down today?” I sort of feel like a dumbass when I tell them things like it rained out today, or exports were better than expected or the cash cattle market is stronger because I know that to the root of why a market did what it did has nothing to do with any of my standard answers, but for the moment that’s what they like to talk about and I’m not sure I really have anything better that will satisfy them. So essentially I would like to give them a better answer to their why question. My second motivation which is the stronger of my two reasons for going in search of the “why” is my stronger motivator. My thoughts are that if I better understand the “Why” of Why a market is higher or lower (or trending) I think it lays a better foundation to my own understanding of why trend following works so well. I see that markets trend and your information offers a lot of compelling information for trend following, but I really have been struggling with Why they trend. My thoughts have been that if I can fully understand and articulate why they trend I will become an even better trend following trader. Over the course of the last couple of months I have come up with my own hypothesis to the question and am fairly satisfied at least in my own mind why markets move in one direction or the other but have yet to find any writings that truly validate my thoughts. My hypothesis of the “Why” is so extremely simple that I am sitting here thinking to myself… Can it really be that simple? So here I am posing the question to you… In your writings or in others writings that you have come across, have you found a very straight forward answer to “Why” markets trend or why markets are higher or lower. Essentially we see that markets do trend in one direction or another but why do they trend?

No one knows exactly why. Some don’t like such a short answer… the lack of a fixed for sure answer unnerves some. Don’t let it unnerve you. That’s the trick. The goal is after all to make money, right? The goal is not to know why is it?


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.