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Higher Education… Not All it’s Cracked Up to be (Mailbag)

David Ricardo (19 April 1772 – 11 September 1823) was an English political economist, often credited with systematizing economics, and was one of the most influential of the classical economists, along with Thomas Malthus, Adam Smith, and John Stuart Mill. According to an 1838 book, The Great Metropolis, Volume 2, Ricardo had certain golden rules:

“As I have mentioned the name of Mr. Ricardo, I may observe that he amassed his immense fortune by a scrupulous attention to what he called his own three golden rules, the observance of which he used to press on his private friends. These were: 1. Never refuse an option* when you can get it, 2. Cut short your losses, and 3. Let your profits run on. By cutting short one’s losses, Mr. Ricardo meant that when a member had made a purchase of stock, and prices were falling, he ought to resell immediately. And by letting one’s profits run on he meant, that when a member possessed stock, and prices were raising, he ought not to sell until prices had reached their highest, and were beginning again to fall. These are, indeed, golden rules, and may be applied with advantage to innumerable other transactions than those connected with the Stock Exchange.”


Building off that consider a story sent in from a listener:

Michael,

I live in Guernsey, which is a small island with several single track lanes in the rural parishes. I was driving yesterday when I came across two cars which were almost bumper to bumper. (I knew the lady driving the car going in the direction we were traveling in, she is a robust lady who is the wife of a close friend.)

Anyway the man driving the other car refuses to back up a few yards to a passing point, and is already getting out of the car, to argue with her, when I drive up behind her, she gave him short shrift and by the time he had acquiesced and decided to reverse a car had come up behind me and he had a lorry approach behind him.

He eventually reversed making a meal of this – and the whole process took a lot longer than it would have if he had just swallowed his pride and reversed immediately.

The moral of the story is – cut your losses short, before they have the opportunity to get your ego involved and the whole situation escalates beyond sensible proportions.

Kind regards,
[Name]

True that!

More feedback in:

Wish you and Taleb did a podcast together. Thank you again for not wasting my time talking about damn beer, the now cool thing to fill time on podcast.

[Name]

Beer is the cool talking point, eh? I am so far out of the loop!

More feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Firstly a quick thank you for all your books, most of which I own and have reread multiple times. I can’t overstate how invaluable they have been in helping develop my views and approach to trading. And thank you for all the other open source sharing of knowledge that you provide in your podcasts and trend following update emails, again I really appreciated them both for the information provided and for the motivation and new trading ideas they have inspired.

I know your views on tertiary education, however I was given an opportunity to study a Masters in Finance and am now mid way through the degree. I’m exploring ideas to focus my research on for my final project and want to use the project as an opportunity to deepen my understanding of the CTA industry. Ultimately I’m aiming for my project to have real value to someone within the industry by sharing new knowledge and insights or ideally providing a solution to an issue they face.

You have a deep understanding of the CTA industry and an amazing network of contacts so I wanted to ask you whether there were any areas you felt required further research. Otherwise whether there were any problems the industry faced that you or your contacts had identified that I could research and challenge myself to solve. I want my research to be relevant and offer practical application and value to the industry, rather than being exclusively an academic exercise so I would appreciate any feedback you could share.

Kind Regards
[Name]
Cape Town, South Africa

Thanks for your nice words.

I don’t have a research idea for you. But going through my world of books and podcast will push serious ideas I suspect.

More feedback in:

BTW, I like how you say PhDs are not necessary…I have a PhD in Microbiology and Immunology and a law degree, bought into the whole education thing. It’s fine as far as making a living but definitely not what it’s cracked up to be.

Indeed.

Michael Covel Trex
Michael Covel Trex

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“Stick with what you know best, so you don’t sound like a complete idiot”

Feedback in based on my recent podcast:

“I think you should have named the most latest episode abject stupidity, and lack of human decency. Stick with what you know best, so you don’t sound like a complete idiot. Now you can go ahead and read this email on your podcast like you’ve done to others in the past, but I think you should stop and think for a second that you might be annoying the very people you are expecting to money off of.”

A great excerpt from Ayn Rand, John Galt, in Atlas Shrugged:

“The symbol of all relationships among [rational] men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader. We, who live by values, not by loot are traders, both in manner and spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit – his love, his friendship, his esteem – except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect. The mystic parasites who have, throughout the ages, reviled the trader and held him in contempt, while honoring the beggars and the looters, have known the secret motive of the sneers: a trader is the entity they dread – a man of justice.”

A good retort.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“There’s no way in hell I’m listening to a 4-hour episode with Tom Basso!”

Feedback in:

I said to myself: “There’s no way in hell I’m listening to a 4-hour episode with Tom Basso…” And then I got to hour 3 and said to myself “I owe you an apology” holy **** this is amazing. 95 pages into Trend Following and just bought The Complete TurtleTrader today… thank you for doing this amazing show.

Tom is great.

Tom Basso
Tom Basso

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Great Fundamentals Debate and Emotional Response

Emotional
Emotional Rescue 911

A recent email interchange:

Hello there Michael, I’m a 20 year old Swede who really likes trading, as well as your work. First of all I would like to thank you dearly for your great podcasts and books. It surely is an entire joy every Monday & Friday when a new podcast comes out. More important, it seems quite amazing that you share more or less all the fundamental views I hold toward the world. Actually, I, just like you, read Ayn Rand at an early age which changed me a lot. And finding you who preserves those views is fantastic! Since I respect you so much I would like to ask you some things about trading. Now, I know you are really in to the trend following path, and I agree on most part of your analysis towards it. However, I believe that the fundamentals sometimes can be really important as well. For instance, one strategy that has served me well has been to short gold whenever the market tends to believe 3-4 rate hikes is on the play, and then go long on gold whenever the market tends to believe the rate hikes is off the table. This of course is related to the gold being priced in USD and then obviously gains when the USD fall. Now that might not be a fundamental strategy but more of a “market sentiment orientated strategy…” However, I wonder, do you ever use any fundamental analysis or do you only use technical tools such as SMA & EMA? Least but last, I would like to ask you if it would be possible to hold an interview with someone from Zero Hedge?

“Sometimes”?

“Tends to believe”?

“Whenever”?

“On the play”?

Everything I just put in [bold] is guessing? No specificity? There are exact rules with precise numbers? Or just intuition or hunches? See the problems here?

Response:

I really don’t get why you need to be so mean? Just because you need to have an 100% absolute concrete trading strategy doesn’t mean that everything else sucks. It’s just pathetic to respond to me like that, so regarding my initial question, never fucking mind!

This interchange offers observers a great chance to go investigate the work of Daniel Kahneman. Read my Email Debate on Drawdowns.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Financial Predictions v. Weather Predictions

Cuter than CFAs
Cuter than CFAs

Feedback in:

Michael, I just wanted to take a moment to thank you for your work. I have read most of your books and they are exactly what I needed. You see I am a veteran of the brokerage business (30 Years) and I have always known intuitively that something about the entire business was, and is, a lie. Analysts have no skin in the game, management doesn’t care if you make money, it’s all about assets under management that’s why they will never say sell. “Just buy more.” You see I used to look at CFA’s as the smartest people in the room. Now I know that they are really just financial weathermen trying to predict the future. Something that can’t be done. I have adopted for my clients a simple trend following rules based strategy, and it amazes me how hard it is to change minds. It is so simple they somehow think it can’t work. But I will keep plugging away and I know you will to. The business needs to change even the other brokers in my office look at me like a freak when I tell them to stop listening to analyst’s and “stop buying stocks that are going down.” Old habits die very, very hard. Just wanted to say thanks.

Thanks!

Looks like this feedback was inspired by my recent interview here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Tim Pickering: “Investments can be broken down into essentially two types: Convergent and Divergent”

Tim Pickering of Auspice Capital offers wisdom:

Investments can be broken down into essentially two types: Convergent and Divergent.

Convergent risk tasking strategies are characterized by many small gains but also occasional devastating losses. These strategies are generally based on market fundamentals and the human tendency for logical sense. The returns look a lot like the equity markets. Convergent strategies are comfortable for people because many small gains feed the human need for constant gratification (ex. Yield, making returns every month, quarter, year). Most traditional and alternative asset are convergent. See Chart.

Divergent strategies [like Trend Following] do something different. They are characterized by many small losses but also with occasional big wins. These strategies are generally based on a systematic, repeatable investment process that has no fundamental bias. They are agnostic to market direction. The returns look like paying option premium or time value before the hockey stick gain of a call option. The most common way to achieve this return stream is trend following (CTA / Managed Futures). Divergent strategies go against human need as they feel like a lot of small paper cuts before the payoff. They are hard to get your head around as we all want constant gratification.

But the real beauty of the 2 strategies is that the losses in one often get covered by the gains of the other. The power is using both. They are not only non-correlated, they are negatively correlated at critical times. Ask yourself – what is Divergent in my portfolio?

Great explanation of Trend Following.

Convergent v. Divergent
Convergent v. Divergent

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Curiosity and Strong Passion for Trend Following

Feedback in:

Mr. Covel,

My name is [Name]. I wanted to send you an email saying thank you for all of your publications about trend trading. I started trading when I was 15 based on all curiosity and now has grown into a strong passion. I’m 23 years old and have followed your work for 3 years now and now drastically increased my returns but also my view point on the market.

After the fund I worked at sold its assets, I was laid off. Once that happened I went through your books again and it has only kept me more focused on my goals of running my own fund one day. Your work is very appreciated and anyone I know that trades or wants to get into trading, I forward them to your website and to all the books and podcasts.

Thank you Mr. Covel.

Best,
[Name]

You are welcome! As you know Curiosity drives Trend Following.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.