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Ep. 461: Robin Hanson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson

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My guest today is Robin Hanson, an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known for his work on idea futures and markets, and he was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute’s Foresight Exchange and DARPA’s FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Consensus Point (where Hanson is Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signalling.

The topic is his book The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life when Robots Rule the Earth.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Singularity
  • Robots taking over
  • Artificial intelligence
  • Slavery
  • Reversible computing
  • Virtual reality
  • Future of politics
  • Democracy in the future

“As an economist and a social scientist I often analyze the world as if nobody is in charge. As if it is not a matter of people voting on it, it is a matter of people doing lots of little things in local self interest that end up accumulating into the net effect that we all see.” – Robin Hanson

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Social Security Drama; It Never Dies!

Consider an excerpt from Trend Commandments [Update: Audio book now available!]:


Social Security is dead? Easier said than done.

On Meet the Press, one United States governor appeared confused: “If you care about democracy and what the everyday citizen believes, and you want to empower them, they don’t want the Social Security system to be dismantled, and they don’t want the Medicare system to be dismantled… this is a compact between generations to be able to make sure that all of our seniors have the funds when they retire, that they’re not going to be homeless, so they’re not going to have to go to a shelter.”

Did she know that the inflation adjusted return of Social Security is just 2 percent? A United States Senator on Meet the Press apparently did not: “Social Security is a program that works. It is fully funded for the next 40 years. Stop picking on Social Security. It’s not a crisis. Social Security is fine.”

Those politicians are not stupid; rather, they have ceased to think. Or, do they just need to tell a certain story to ensure power for whatever party with which they are affiliated? Waiting or hoping for your politician, on the right or the left or anywhere in between, to win an election is an investment strategy of your ignorance.

Behind the scenes and in the halls of Congress; drunks, perverts, and losers addicted to fame and power. Both sides. You can’t make money from them or social security. There are other options.

Process v. Outcome
Process v. Outcome

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Buckle Up, It Will Soon Be Fun!

Feedback in:

Michael,

We must be close, Sir.

Not that I would expend an ounce of energy to defend any NY-based hedge fund (says the Chicago CTA), but as if this has just been a typical period since Mar ’09 “No more than 23% of active managers in any segment of the U.S. equities market outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 5 years” practically brings tears to my eyes – in laughter. And also hope. Hope that we are close to the next “unforeseen sequence of events” typically favorable for our preferred style of trading.

Attached is from this weekend’s Wall St. Journal in case you missed it.

Keep up the great work!

Thanks!

The Deranged Trust Pension Funds
The Deranged Trust Pension Funds

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
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About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 449: Neil Pasricha Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Neil Pasricha
Neil Pasricha

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My guest today is Neil Pasricha, an author, entrepreneur, podcaster, and public speaker characterized by his advocacy of positivity and simple pleasures. He is also an established speaker and his TEDx talk, “The 3 A’s of Awesome”, is ranked as the ninth most inspiring TEDx talk with over 3 million views to date. In total, he has sold over 1 million books. The book and TED talk are based on Pasricha’s blog, 1000 Awesome Things. The blog has won three Webby Awards and ranked in PC Magazines list of top blogs and websites in 2009 and 2010.

The topic is his book The Happiness Equation: Want Nothing + Do Anything = Have Everything.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Happiness
  • Retirement is a lie
  • Loving your work
  • The lottery
  • The note card system
  • Criticism
  • Goals are never ending
  • Having less wants in life

“The action proceeds the motivation.” – Neil Pasricha

“Wealth exists not in having great possessions but in having few wants.” – Epictetus

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Ep. 447: Ben Hunt Interview with Michael Covel and Trend Following Radio

Ben Hunt
Ben Hunt

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My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Co-Founder and Partner at Second Foundation Partners. He is also the author of Epsilon Theory, a weekly publication that examines capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history. Since its launch in June, 2013 more than 100,000 copies of Epsilon Theory notes have been read by professional investors in more than 110 countries.

The topic is his Epsilon Theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Monetary policy
  • What drives the value of currency?
  • Economics in recessions
  • Systematic models
  • Central Banks
  • Policy controlled markets
  • Expectations of the public markets

“Markets are too important to be left to investors.” – Ben Hunt

“It goes back to what I was saying about the overwhelming debt that sloshes around in the world and there are only three ways to get out of that: You can grow your way out, you can inflate your way out or you can assign losses and try to reset.” – Ben Hunt

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Ep. 445: Parag Khanna Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Parag Khanna
Parag Khanna

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My guest today is Parag Khanna, an international relations expert, a CNN Global Contributor and Senior Research Fellow at the National University of Singapore. He is also the Managing Partner of Hybrid Reality, a geostrategic advisory firm, and Co-Founder & CEO of Factotum.

The topic is his book Connectography: Mapping the Future of Global Civilization.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Supply chains
  • Connectivity
  • Cities vs. State
  • Chinese infrastructure growth
  • Trade
  • Trust among China’s neighbors
  • Territory borders
  • Globalization
  • Winners and losers in the 21st century
  • The idea of “not in my backyard”
  • Growth of Dubai

“The truth is that winners and losers in the 21st century will be determined by old versus new. Not any of these ideological things. Who has newer and better stuff and is able to maximize the utility of that stuff to improve the welfare of their population.” – Parag Khanna

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Hillary Clinton’s Selective Dot Com Bubble Memory

In a March 2016 debate Hillary Clinton declared:

You know, if we’re going to argue about the 1990’s instead of talking about the future, which I’d much prefer because I think every election is about the future, and you all deserve to know what we will do to help you have a brighter future — but, if we are going to talk about the 1990’s I think it’s only fair to say that at the end of the 1990’s, after two terms of my husband’s presidency, the unemployment rate in Michigan was 4.4 percent.

The 1990s were the biggest stock market bubble in USA history. And now 16 years later, via slight of hand and a fantasy timeline, shes brag about the then great economy that magically only concluded at the tail end of her husband’s Presidency.

Bottom line, politicians are never the path to wealth and their words never tell anywhere close to a full story. Here are the 1990s in Nasdaq chart form:

NASDAQ Bubble Chart
NASDAQ Bubble Chart

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.