Archive
Category: Black Swan Thinking
- September 19, 2012Revisiting Kat’s Managed Futures and Hedge Funds: A Match Made in Heaven from Sunrise Capital
Why Tactical Macro Investing Still Makes Sense — Further Revisiting Kat’s “Managed Futures and Hedge Funds: A Match Made in Heaven” (PDF): In November 2002, Cass Business School Professor Harry M. Kat,…
- September 18, 2012Ep. 59: Don’t Let Them Fuck You Around with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Please enjoy my monologue Don’t Let Them F*** You Around with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive. Listen to this episode:…
- September 17, 2012The Illusion of Control: Dancing with Chance
From INSEAD: First you accept that there are things you can’t control. Then you try to assess the uncertainty and finally augment your plan to make sure you manage risk more effectively.…
- September 11, 2012Rapid shifts are the hallmark of climate change, epileptic seizures, financial crises, and fishery collapses…
From SEED: Nonlinear systems, however, are not so well behaved. They can appear stationary for a long while, then without anything changing, they exhibit jumps in variability—so-called “heteroscedasticity.” For example, if one…
- August 18, 2012Ep. 46: Ralph Vince Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
My guest today is Ralph Vince. Vince is by profession a computer programmer writing analytical programs for funds, large traders and professional gamblers. He is the author of five books on investing…
- June 17, 2012Too Much Data Is Toxic–Trend Followers Get This Terribly Important Principle Deep in Their Gut
An excerpt (source): In business and economic decision-making, data causes severe side effects —data is now plentiful thanks to connectivity; and the share of spuriousness in the data increases as one gets…
- June 8, 2012Ep. 22: Mike Aponte Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
You can listen to my interview with famed MIT card counter Mike Aponte: My guest today is Mike Aponte, a professional blackjack player and a former member of the MIT Blackjack Team.…