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Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin LeFevre: A Trend Following Bible

An excerpt from REMINISCENCES OF A STOCK OPERATOR by Edwin LeFevre (Copyright 1923):

I NEVER hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up. I don’t mean of course that in a bear market caused by a war, ammunition shares do not go up. I speak in a general sense. But the average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think. It is too much bother to have to count the money that he picks up from the ground. Well, I wasn’t that lazy, but I found it easier to think of individual stocks than of the general market and therefore of individual fluctuations rather than of general movements. I had to change and I did. People don’t seem to grasp easily the fundamentals of stock trading. I have often said that to buy on a rising market is the most comfortable way of buying stocks. Now, the point is not so much to buy as cheap as possible or go short at top prices, but to buy or sell at the right time. When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying, the reverse is true. I must buy on a rising scale. I don’t buy long stock on a scale down, I buy on a scale up. Let us suppose, for example, that I am buying some stock. I’ll buy two thousand shares at 110. If the stock goes up to 111 after I buy it I am, at least temporarily, right in my operation, because it is a point higher; it shows me a profit. Well, because I am right I go in and buy another two thousand shares. If the market is still rising I buy a third lot of two thousand shares. Say the price goes to 114. I think it is enough for the time being. I now have a trading basis to work from. I am long six thousand shares at an average of 111-3/4 and the stock is selling at 114. I won’t buy any more just then. I wait and see. I figure that at some stage of the rise there is going to be a reaction. I want to see how the market takes care of itself after that reaction. It will probably react to where I got my third lot. Say that after going higher it falls back to 112-1/4, and then rallies. Well, just as it goes back to 113-3/4 I shoot an order to buy four thousand at the market of course. Well, if I get that four thousand at 113-3/4 I know something is wrong and I’ll give a testing order that is, I’ll sell one thousand shares to see how the market takes it. But suppose that of the order to buy the four thousand shares that I put in when the price was 113-3/4 I get two thousand at 114 and five hundred at 114-1/2 and the rest on the way up so that for the last five hundred I pay 115-1/2. Then I know I am right. It is the way I get the four thousand shares that tells me whether I am right in buying that particular stock at that particular time for of course I am working on the assumption that I have checked up general conditions pretty well and they are bullish. I never want to buy stocks too cheap or too easily.

Timeless.

Jesse Livermore Books:

• How to Trade in Stocks (PDF)
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (PDF)


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“The podcasts help…to inspire, educate and reinvigorate my ‘animal spirits’ as I ride the bucking bronco each and every day.”

Feedback in:

Michael: I wanted to reiterate my ongoing appreciation for your passionate pursuit of trend following. The podcasts help a great deal and they serve to inspire, educate and reinvigorate my “animal spirits” as I ride the bucking bronco each and every day.

Recognizing a free market is not a free lunch, and that your generous and copious free content must be supported, I bought kindle versions of Trend Commandments and The Little Book during the past month. They occupy space with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator*, The Capitalist Spirit by Yale Hirsch and Morales & Kacher’s book Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple. (*The Jon Markman version is a great edition of this trading classic, offering deep historical context throughout the entire book.)

In fact, the very first kindle book I purchased was a new edition of Trend Following, putting the “smart” into my smart phone. 🙂

Whenever new editions come out, of course, they will be purchased.

It all began with email back in 2003 or so. That first tuition seemed “pricey” but I have made (and lost and made) multiples of that over time. The real tuition was the time spent putting the lessons into practice.

Thank you again for the spark, for I shall keep the fire burning bright and hot.

Best,

Edward

Thanks Edward!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Trend Is Our Friend White Paper

Read The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Global Asset Allocation. Abstract:

We examine the effectiveness of applying a trend following methodology to global asset allocation between equities,bonds,commodities and real estate.The application of trend following offers a substantial improvement in risk-adjusted performance compared to traditional buy-and-hold portfolios. We also find it to be a superior method of asset allocation than risk parity. Momentum and trend following have often been used interchangeably although the former is a relative concept and the latter absolute. By combining the two we find that one can achieve the higher return levels associated with momentum portfolios but with much reduced volatility and drawdowns due to trend following. We observe that a flexible asset allocation strategy that allocates capital to the best performing instruments irrespective of asset class enhances this further.

More trend following white papers.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 49: David Cheval Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

David Cheval
David Cheval

My guest today is David Cheval. Cheval was an inside witness to Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt’s famed Turtle experiment. Through the involvement of his former wife, famed original TurtleTrader Liz Cheval, David Cheval’s history and background for the Turtle story comes from a unique vantage point.

The topic is Turtle Trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Events surrounding the Turtle experiment, including his own interesting part in alerting his former wife to the opportunity (he is still an investor in her firm)
  • Cheval’s progression from a runner on the Chicago pits, to the formation of his CPO (Dearborn Capital Management), to his career in law today
  • The presence of Richard Dennis on the Chicago Board of Trade in the years prior to the Turtle experiment
  • Some of the lessons that can be gleaned from some of the most successful Turtles
  • The difference between volatility and risk
  • Why basic trend following philosophies are timeless

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Ep. 48: Michael Gibbons Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

 

Michael Gibbons
Michael Gibbons

My guest today is Michael Gibbons, a market timer (otherwise known as a trend following trader) who runs a firm called Gibbons Trading. Gibbons started as an economics major and quickly realized that much of what he was taught in academia didn’t add up. He has been trading since 1971, and was one of the first to discover what is now known as stock index arbitrage. He was one of the first to use computerized trading and currently provides his proprietary research primarily to large traders and hedge funds.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Gibbons started in the markets
  • The fallacies of buy & hold and fundamental analysis
  • Trading prices apart from everything else (and how this is close to playing the market like a video game, i.e. pong)
  • The problem of when the media is simply “making things up”
  • How trading can be primarily psychological
  • The problems of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and academia
  • The benefits of having a trend following strategy during chaotic times; the danger of gurus
  • Separating your ego from your trading

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Ep. 46: Ralph Vince Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Ralph Vince
Ralph Vince

My guest today is Ralph Vince. Vince is by profession a computer programmer writing analytical programs for funds, large traders and professional gamblers. He is the author of five books on investing in his field of expertise, portfolio management and portfolio/trade optimization.

The topic is trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Optimal bet sizes
  • Whether Ed Thorp’s work and the Kelly criteria had any effect on Vince’s work
  • The importance of knowing the optimal spot depending on your criteria
  • Why maximizing profits can result in a large drawdown – and why you should be happy about that
  • If diversification really does give you a free lunch
  • The importance of learning the wrong approach

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Ep. 45: Howard Getson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Howard Getson
Howard Getson

My guest today is Howard Getson, an entrepreneur and president & CEO of Capitalogix. Getson is an associate of Stendahl. Getson has a degree in psychology and philosophy from Duke University, an MBA and law degree from Northwestern, and has practiced corporate law. Getson is running a hedge fund today as well as a quant research shop, and he’s in the business of systematically finding edges through all sorts of different approaches – not only trend following. Getson started his first business in the sixth grade, and he has always had the mind of an entrepreneur.

The topic is entrepreneurship.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Getson’s legal background and how being a practicing corporate attorney influenced his trading and other business practices – as well as how a diverse background can help
  • “E-gene”, and how entrepreneurism is at the core of what both Getson and Covel practice
  • How hunches can be dangerous
  • Turning your hobby into your business
  • Recognizing patterns
  • The “three levels of mastery” – cognitive, emotional, and physical
  • How minimum standards can define your life
  • How systematic trading can define your minimum standards
  • Controlling emotions through automation
  • Importance of travel with a focus on Southeast Asia in particular and why this area of the world is so important to keep an eye on

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