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Ep. 281: Vineer Bhansali Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Vineer Bhansali
Vineer Bhansali

My guest today is Vineer Bhansali, the managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is “Tail Risk Hedging”. He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”
  • Trend following in the classical sense
  • How trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO
  • Introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients
  • The three hypotheses tested in “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”
  • Currency trading and trend following returns
  • Why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets
  • Trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches
  • Connecting Bhansali’s hobbies to the quantitative world
  • Structure and thinking in terms of code
  • Imagining and building simulations
  • Being distribution aware
  • Why being at all-time highs is not the time to feel satisfied

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Vineer Bhansali: 10 Things My Hobbies Have Taught Me About Investing

Vineer Bhansali’s interesting paper (PDF) mentioned in our podcast.

Note: Used with permission from Pacific Investment Management Company LLC.


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Ep. 280: Joey Reiman and John Brenkus Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Joey Reiman and John Brenkus
Joey Reiman and John Brenkus

My guests today are Joey Reiman and John Brenkus.

Reiman, who runs Brighthouse, has been called the “father of ideation”. He’s emerged as the subject matter expert in the area of purpose inspired leadership, marketing, and innovation. His breakthrough purpose methodology and frameworks have been adopted by the likes of the Boston Consulting Group, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, KPMG, and many other Fortune 500 companies across the globe. As an adjunct professor at the Goizueta School of Business at Emory University, he teaches tomorrow’s executives his revolutionary theories and applications for purpose-inspired profit.

Brenkus is the host of the ESPN show, Sport Science. Sport Science is an ongoing television series that explores the science and engineering underlying athletic endeavors.

The topics are marketing and sports science.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Reiman discuss Reiman’s background and mission in life; looking for meaning; figuring out your “why”; the process of teaching, and the areas where certain people may get tripped up; looking back to your beginnings; the destructiveness of outside voices; calmness and contemplation; solitude vs. aloneness; “money doesn’t create ideas–ideas create money”; why daydreaming isn’t necessarily a bad thing; creativity and environments; changing the world through changing your routine; routine and creativity; thinking with your heart as much as your mind; Apple vs. Google; raw talent, creativity, and environment; lucky people and “yes” people; the power of “slow”; and the importance of storytelling.
  • Anything about statistics and science has the potential to inspire Covel and with John Brenkus, he goes straight into it; Also discussed: what triggered the science and sports connection in Brenkus’ brain; science and martial arts; measuring human performance; why success doesn’t follow a straight line; Brenkus’ college experiences and how they are relevant to his work today; the idea of physical limits being reached; why Brenkus became a crash test dummy; the advantage of applying science to any aspect of life; and the Iron Man competition.

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Handling the Biases: Trend Following

Trend following handles the biases:

biases

Chart H/T: James Montier.


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Murray Gell-Mann: Beauty and Truth in Physics


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 279: Mark Broadie Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mark Broadie
Mark Broadie

My guest today is Mark Broadie, the Carson Family Professor of Business and Vice Dean at the Columbia Business School. His research focuses on quantitative finance and sports analytics. His golf research has appeared in academic journals and many golf publications. He developed the new strokes gained approach to analyze the performance of amateur and professional golfers and worked with the PGA Tour on their implementation of the strokes gained putting stat.

The topic is his book Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How he became, in Covel’s words, the “Bill James of golf”
  • How Broadie connected his finance work to the sport of golf
  • Why certain golfers win
  • Why approach shots are the most important
  • “Drive for show, putt for dough”
  • How Broadie started, the software he used, and how he got better data
  • Whether Broadie had any sense of where the data might go when he first collected it
  • Power as a separator
  • The connection between sports anaylitics, business analytics, and investing
  • The psychology of golf
  • First putts vs. second putts
  • The world golf rankings, and how these can be fixed

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Humans Naturally Follow Crowd Behavior

Great article in the Wall Street Journal by Alison Gopnik titled, “Humans Naturally Follow Crowd Behavior”:

It happened last Sunday at football stadiums around the country. Suddenly, 50,000 individuals became a single unit, almost a single mind, focused intently on what was happening on the field—that particular touchdown grab or dive into the end zone. Somehow, virtually simultaneously, each of those 50,000 people tuned into what the other 49,999 were looking at.

Becoming part of a crowd can be exhilarating or terrifying: The same mechanisms that make people fans can just as easily make them fanatics. And throughout human history we have constructed institutions that provide that dangerous, enthralling thrill. The Coliseum that hosts my local Oakland Raiders is, after all, just a modern knockoff of the massive theater that housed Roman crowds cheering their favorite gladiators 2,000 years ago.

(For Oakland fans, like my family, it’s particularly clear that participating in the Raider Nation is responsible for much of the games’ appeal—it certainly isn’t the generally pathetic football.)

In fact, recent studies suggest that our sensitivity to crowds is built into our perceptual system and operates in a remarkably swift and automatic way. In a 2012 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, A.C. Gallup, then at Princeton University, and colleagues looked at the crowds that gather in shopping centers and train stations.

In one study, a few ringers simply joined the crowd and stared up at a spot in the sky for 60 seconds. Then the researchers recorded and analyzed the movements of the people around them. The scientists found that within seconds hundreds of people coordinated their attention in a highly systematic way. People consistently stopped to look toward exactly the same spot as the ringers.

The number of ringers ranged from one to 15. People turn out to be very sensitive to how many other people are looking at something, as well as to where they look. Individuals were much more likely to follow the gaze of several people than just a few, so there was a cascade of looking as more people joined in.

In a new study in Psychological Science, Timothy Sweeny at the University of Denver and David Whitney at the University of California, Berkeley, looked at the mechanisms that let us follow a crowd in this way. They showed people a set of four faces, each looking in a slightly different direction. Then the researchers asked people to indicate where the whole group was looking (the observers had to swivel the eyes on a face on a computer screen to match the direction of the group).

Because we combine head and eye direction in calculating a gaze, the participants couldn’t tell where each face was looking by tracking either the eyes or the head alone; they had to combine the two. The subjects saw the faces for less than a quarter of a second. That’s much too short a time to look at each face individually, one by one.

It sounds impossibly hard. If you try the experiment, you can barely be sure of what you saw at all. But in fact, people were amazingly accurate. Somehow, in that split-second, they put all the faces together and worked out the average direction where the whole group was looking.

In other studies, Dr. Whitney has shown that people can swiftly calculate how happy or sad a crowd is in much the same way.

Other social animals have dedicated brain mechanisms for coordinating their action—that’s what’s behind the graceful rhythms of a flock of birds or a school of fish. It may be hard to think of the eccentric, gothic pirates of Oakland’s Raider Nation in the same way. A fan I know says that going to a game is like being plunged into an unusually friendly and cooperative postapocalyptic dystopia—a marijuana-mellowed Mad Max.

But our brains seem built to forge a flock out of even such unlikely materials.

For more see:

Nice perspective.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.