My guest today is Jack Schwager, an American trader and author. He is the author of the Market Wizard series. His books have remained relevant over the past 25 years, and for many traders they are the best trading books on the shelves today.
The topic is his Market Wizard series.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
I wonder how many fundamental analysts could have “predicted” the market’s reaction to the Brexit news. It amazes me how many people still believe these “experts” on TV know what they are talking about. Hopefully some day people will learn that trend following is the only way to prepare for these 100-year floods that seem to happen quite often. Thank you for your podcasts and continuing to educate those who are looking for the right way to trade.
At a philosophical level, it is important to understand that while Brexit is in some respects novel and shocking (no country has ever left the European Union and many polls suggested that Britain would stay), from a broader perspective, Brexit is no different than any of the many exogenous geopolitical events that have periodically disrupted markets over the course of our 37 year investment history. As we see it, Brexit is simply another example of an “unexpected” event happening and investors overreacting to that event in such a way that it causes a great deal of immediate market turmoil.
The financial pain caused by this turmoil is real, it is not enjoyable and it is generally not good for the global financial system or people’s faith in that system, particularly in the short term. However over the long haul, as history has proven over and over again through world wars, revolutions, and numerous other types of global disruptions, markets are resilient and ultimately right themselves to some kind of equilibrium level. Accordingly, our approach to Brexit has been quite similar to the approach we’ve taken to numerous other global shocks and that is to plan, prepare and then “keep calm and carry on” as the British would say.
Last night I listened to your podcast episode 458 on continuous improvement. In the speech you mentioned if one is using trend following in day trading, go away! I was shocked to hear that. For the past two months, I am using the 15 min and 30 min charts on most of my commodities and futures trading. The reason is if I use the daily chart to trade, the N value (ATR) is too big and my capital is very limited, plus the difference in currency exchange between USD and MYR.
Moreover, in the same podcast you mentioned it is gambling staring at the computer screen whole day–which is what I might result in doing if I use the 15 min or 30 min chart. And trend followers don’t do that?
With regards,
[Name]
Malaysia
Not a new message from me about day trading. I say across my books. I say here.
You can’t effectively trade a 6 month move as a day trader, for example. You can find more here:
My guest today is Robin Hanson, an associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. He is known for his work on idea futures and markets, and he was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute’s Foresight Exchange and DARPA’s FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Consensus Point (where Hanson is Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signalling.
The topic is his book The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life when Robots Rule the Earth.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Singularity
Robots taking over
Artificial intelligence
Slavery
Reversible computing
Virtual reality
Future of politics
Democracy in the future
“As an economist and a social scientist I often analyze the world as if nobody is in charge. As if it is not a matter of people voting on it, it is a matter of people doing lots of little things in local self interest that end up accumulating into the net effect that we all see.” – Robin Hanson
I said to myself: “There’s no way in hell I’m listening to a 4-hour episode with Tom Basso…” And then I got to hour 3 and said to myself “I owe you an apology” holy **** this is amazing. 95 pages into Trend Following and just bought The Complete TurtleTrader today… thank you for doing this amazing show.
Please enjoy my monologue Billionaire Words with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
