Subscribe now and watch my free trend following VIDEO.

Tag: Trend Following

Ep. 22: Mike Aponte Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mike Aponte
Mike Aponte

You can listen to my interview with famed MIT card counter Mike Aponte:

My guest today is Mike Aponte, a professional blackjack player and a former member of the MIT Blackjack Team. Aponte was featured in the bestselling book “Bringing Down The House” as the player Jason Fisher, which was adapted into the movie “21”.

The topic is investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Due to his systematic approach, he’s definitely not a gambler; he’s an investor
  • Aponte’s beginnings
  • The similarities between systematic card counting and trend trading; the psychology behind the two
  • How even some of the more advanced mathematicians at MIT didn’t have the risk-taking constitution it took to make the cut
  • Some revealing anecdotes along the way, including a run in with casino security that ended with them actually asking for his autograph

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

How to Beat the Odds at Judging Risk

Posted on by Michael Covel

Fast, clear feedback is crucial to gauging probabilities; for lessons, consult weathermen and gamblers:

Most of us have to estimate probabilities every day. Whether as a trader betting on the price of a stock, a lawyer gauging a witness’s reliability or a doctor pondering the accuracy of a diagnosis, we spend much of our time—consciously or not—guessing about the future based on incomplete information. Unfortunately, decades of research indicate that humans are not very good at this. Most of us, for example, tend to vastly overestimate our chances of winning the lottery, while similarly underestimating the chances that we will get divorced.

Psychologists have tended to assume that such biases are universal and virtually impossible to avoid. But certain groups of people—such as meteorologists and professional gamblers—have managed to overcome these biases and are thus able to estimate probabilities much more accurately than the rest of us. Are they doing something the rest of us can learn? Can we improve our risk intelligence?

Yes. One of my better efforts at explaining that yes.

Article Excerpt: Source.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 19: Todd Miller Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Todd Miller
Todd Miller

My guest today is Todd Miller, a trader who runs a systematic trend following firm, Availeth Capital, with partner Jim Byers. Availeth is a small fund which was started in February 2011, and Covel relates Miller’s start to his chapter in ‘The Little Book of Trading’ on trader David Druz.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Miller got his start working at Fidelity, and how observing the annual returns of one of Fidelity’s biggest mutual funds after the tech bubble burst led him to adopting a trend following mindset
  • The path he took that eventually led him to starting Availeth Capital
  • Importance of in-person interaction
  • The issue of survivorship bias
  • How trend following is the only strategy that can take advantage of the uncertainty that is coming
  • How some trend following traders have followed other passions once they’ve made their billions
  • Covel also discusses his upcoming 10,000 (!) page book, Trend Following Analytics.

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

The Median Isn’t the Message by Stephen Jay Gould

Posted on by Michael Covel

A nice reminder from a great thinker:

If a little learning could ever be a dangerous thing, I had encountered a classic example. Attitude clearly matters in fighting cancer. We don’t know why (from my old-style materialistic perspective, I suspect that mental states feed back upon the immune system). But match people with the same cancer for age, class, health, socioeconomic status, and, in general, those with positive attitudes, with a strong will and purpose for living, with commitment to struggle, with an active response to aiding their own treatment and not just a passive acceptance of anything doctors say, tend to live longer. A few months later I asked Sir Peter Medawar, my personal scientific guru and a Nobelist in immunology, what the best prescription for success against cancer might be. “A sanguine personality,” he replied. Fortunately (since one can’t reconstruct oneself at short notice and for a definite purpose), I am, if anything, even-tempered and confident in just this manner.

Hence the dilemma for humane doctors: since attitude matters so critically, should such a sombre conclusion be advertised, especially since few people have sufficient understanding of statistics to evaluate what the statements really mean? From years of experience with the small-scale evolution of Bahamian land snails treated quantitatively, I have developed this technical knowledge – and I am convinced that it played a major role in saving my life. Knowledge is indeed power, in Bacon’s proverb.

A passage for trend followers? Hmmm… lion or gazelle.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 16: Francisco Vaca Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Francisco Vaca
Francisco Vaca

My guest today is Francisco Vaca, the chairman, CEO, a principal trader for Vaca Capital Management, and a commodity trading advisor (CTA) established in 2000. Vaca began his career in the futures industry in 1996 as an executive researcher for C&D Commodities co-founded by Richard Dennis of “Turtles” fame. His responsibilities included the research and implementation of systematic trading strategies for the futures and equities markets. Dr. Vaca holds a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Chicago in addition to his undergraduate degrees in both physics and mathematics.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Bottom of the source of profits in the futures markets
  • Why people who are on the losing side of trades still play the game
  • Importance of diversification
  • Why you should take every signal you can

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Trend Following Little League Team

Posted on by Michael Covel

My first year Little League sponsorship emblazoned TurtleTrader on the uniform, but now a slight shift to be even more trend following inclusive:

Trend Following Little League Team

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Flight Plans with Trend Follower Kevin Bruce; No Battlestar Galactica Screens Needed

Posted on by Michael Covel

Trend follower Kevin Bruce once had the opportunity to go to New York and see one of the major brokerage firms’ trading floors. He found it like Battlestar Galactica, with more screens and lights than you could imagine. He decided: “I couldn’t think in this environment.” You can never make decisions when the market is open; everything is like a flight plan, it’s got to be pre-planned. Trying to make decisions when the market is open is going to lead to emotional decisions. Everything must be thought out ahead of time. Know what you are going to do if it goes up, if it goes down, and if it doesn’t do anything. When all that is figured out, you put your system on autopilot. It almost sounds too simple, but that’s the way you need to do it, and that’s why you don’t need to stress out about anybody’s opinion.

More? See: The Little Book of Trading.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.