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Tag: michael covel

Ep. 168: Larry Williams Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Larry Williams
Larry Williams

My guest today is Larry Williams, an American author, stock and commodity trader, and politician from the state of Montana.

The topic is trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • IRS and Congress
  • Targeting of individuals and groups by the government
  • Facing the government in a court case and negotiating with the IRS
  • How Williams approached trading at the beginning, and his motivations to do so
  • How growing up in Montana affected Williams personally
  • How Williams came to run for Senate and his reasoning for doing so
  • The importance of speculation, and the difference between speculation and gambling
  • How Williams made the migration from stocks to thinking about futures
  • How Williams approached the emotional and money management sides of the equation
  • Risk control
  • Understanding what kind of system “fits” you best
  • The changing condition of markets
  • Keeping it simple
  • The importance of learning from injury
  • How Williams came to his Libertarian mindset

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Ep. 167: Ryan Holiday Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ryan Holiday
Ryan Holiday

My guest today is Ryan Holiday, an American author, public-relations strategist, bookstore owner and host of the podcast The Daily Stoic. He is a former director of marketing for American Apparel.

The topic is his book Growth Hacker Marketing: A Primer on the Future of PR, Marketing, and Advertising.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The definition of “growth hacking”
  • The different forms of growth hacking
  • Why many other marketing books pertain to big business rather than startups
  • The startup mentality
  • How Holiday turned to Bittorrent to launch Tim Ferriss’ “The 4-Hour Chef”
  • Platforms in the growth hacking mindset
  • Letting others be lucky
  • Growth hacking in the context of startups
  • The idea of a product market fit, changing your product, and assessing its strengths and weaknesses
  • The marketing implications of knowing that “the product is never done”
  • Standing by your convictions but being open minded to change
  • The anachronism of press releases
  • Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
  • The concept of other people’s money, the lack of flexibility that goes along with that, and the importance of being able to change

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Ep. 166: Harry Binswanger Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Harry Binswanger
Harry Binswanger

My guest today is Harry Binswanger, an American philosopher, writer, and Objectivist as a long-time associate of Ayn Rand.

The topic is his article on the value of 1%.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Being inspired by the 1%, and why his article caused such an uproar
  • The nature of trade
  • Envy and jealousy
  • Understanding where entrepreneurs start and how wealth is created
  • The bailouts of 2008
  • Wal-Mart and its many innovations
  • Why money isn’t the root of all evil
  • Seeing Ayn Rand’s work woven into the cultural fabric
  • Statism
  • Navigators and the new health care laws
  • Why the wealthiest counties in America all surround Washington, DC
  • Why we’re at the “tipping point” in society today
  • Thoughts on Ron Paul vs. the principles of Ayn Rand

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Ep. 164: Richard Noble Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Richard Noble
Richard Noble

My guest today is Richard Noble, a Scottish entrepreneur who was holder of the land speed record between 1983 and 1997. He was also the project director of ThrustSSC, the vehicle which holds the current land speed record, set at Black Rock Desert, Nevada in 1997.

The topic is entrepreneur.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • What 600 MPH feels like to someone who has never been there before
  • The mental processes when you’re going at high speeds
  • Process vs. outcome
  • The danger of emotional highs
  • Noble’s entrepreneurial spirit
  • How Noble got the desire for the land-speed record at the age of six
  • Whether Noble views his endeavors as “life threatening”
  • The idea of “higher risk” in life and society today
  • The importance of taking risks
  • The idea of developing a “risk culture”
  • Motivating people to come over to your own perspective
  • The difficulties Noble experienced with British culture, the media, and with big companies
  • The parallel experiences Covel and Noble have had on the web
  • Where Noble stands on breaking the 1000 MPH barrier right now

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richard noble

More awesome Noble pictures: 1, 2, 3, 4.

Ep. 156: Patrick Boyle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Patrick Boyle
Patrick Boyle

My guest today is Patrick Boyle, a fund manager, academic, and author. Boyle is the Founder of Palomar Capital Management, a UK-based hedge fund.

The topic is fund management.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Directional trading
  • Timeframes in trading and short-term trading
  • Boyle’s background and how he came to be a founding partner of Palomar
  • Boyle’s time working with Victor Niederhoffer
  • Niederhoffer and his teaching lineage
  • David Harding and Bill Dunn
  • Boyle’s political stances, the Fed, and the SEC
  • Risk and running a directional fund
  • Performance correlation to the S&P and the trend following CTA’s
  • The big picture takeaways that Boyle learned under Niederhoffer
  • Correlations to people who have come out of Niederhoffer’s shop
  • Monroe Trout
  • Testing ideas
  • How quantitative analysis is different from technical analysis
  • The book publishing industry, and why all the secrets might not be in a $20 book
  • Where Palomar Fund Management is at today
  • Foundational advice to the budding fund manager
  • Libertarianism

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17% Per Year?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Hey Mike, I’ve been wondering something about the returns of trend followers throughout the decades and I would like to hear your opinion. I believe I once heard you say that the average trend follower according to the data available indicates an average return of about 17% annually (Correct me if I’m wrong). However, I can’t help but think of the incredible returns of hundreds to thousands of percent that Jesse Livermore and others in day like Bernard Baruch (don’t know if he was a trend follower) was able to achieve. If I remember correctly, at one point, Livermore was doubling his money almost weekly. What do you think is the reason for such astronomical returns? I think there was more to it than just the 10 to 1 stock leverage of their era. Do you think it was because of Livermore’s poor money management? He did have a tendency to bet to entirely too much on his trades. Perhaps it was the combination of betting too much plus the 10:1 stock leverage. What do you think?

There is not some one set return number for Trend Following (i.e. 17%). Those old guys? You have their audited returns?

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Who’s Your Daddy?

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent email conversation:

Ray: I’ve read all the books and saw the movie. I really enjoy the podcast. I’ve learned a lot from you work and look forward to seeing what new projects your working on. At times i may not agree with your rants, but it does make me think Thank you for all you’ve done.

Covel: Thanks. What do you disagree on?

Ray: Perhaps agree or disagree is not the proper term, for I find your work very enlightening. Though I agree with the argument you are making, at times I wonder if there is a better way to make. For instance, the image of Big Ben kissing me on the lips and tucking me in is not the most pleasant. I understand and agree with your point of view just not the visual image. Maybe it’s just the green tea talking.

Covel: Ah I see. Two ways I see that. Gross and a better image to be used perhaps. Or spot on and it makes people terribly uncomfortable to think about how much power they have entrusted to him. And that his position has truly become daddy-esque.

Ray: Did we entrust him with the power? He’s not elected. Or did he just take the power? 2008 provided a great opportunity for someone to grab power and Ben took as much as he could.

Covel: People have voted for the overall system (that includes Bernanke) to take care of them from cradle to grave. Sort of like when we are 5 years old and our parents tuck us in and give us a kiss.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.