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Ep. 298: Emanuel Derman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Emanuel Derman
Emanuel Derman

My guest today is Emanuel Derman, a South African-born businessman and writer, best known as a quantitative analyst. Derman, who first came to the U.S. at age 21, in 1966, is currently a professor at Columbia University and Director of its program in financial engineering. Until recently he was also the Head of Risk and a partner at KKR Prisma Capital Partners, a fund of funds.

The topics are his books My Life As A Quant: Reflections on Physics and Finance and Models Behaving Badly.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why economics can be an ‘incestuous’ field
  • Economics as a moral science
  • Why all four of the US investment banks were not allowed to go by the wayside
  • Derman’s background and his PhD in theoretical physics
  • Derman’s early eye-opening experiences at Goldman Sachs
  • Model building, and how Derman was indoctrinated into the world of model building
  • The financial model and science and the physics model and science
  • Short volatility models vs. long volatility models
  • How one estimates risk
  • Models vs. theories
  • Whether Derman finds a certain amount of pushback from others in the academic community

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Ep. 297: Gabriele Oettingen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Gabriele Oettingen
Gabriele Oettingen

My guest today is Gabriele Oettingen, a Professor of Psychology at New York University and the University of Hamburg. Her research focuses on how we think about the future, and how this impacts cognition, emotion, and behavior.

The topic is her book Rethinking Positive Thinking: Inside the New Science of Motivation.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Positive thinking, optimism and over-confidence
  • How positive thinking can reign in your sense of urgency
  • The effect of positive thinking on us from a scientific viewpoint
  • Whether Oettingen views her work as an attack on the self-help industry
  • Oettingen’s process and how she views data
  • The WOOP (Wish, Outcome, Obstacle, Plan) process
  • Understanding each component part of WOOP
  • “Ah-ha” moments in Oettingen’s early development
  • The idea of WOOP as mental contrasting
  • Non-conscious processes

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Ep. 296: Ewan Kirk Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ewan Kirk
Ewan Kirk

Michael Covel interviews Ewan Kirk on today’s podcast. Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation. Covel and Kirk discuss how consistent and predictable profits are the Holy Grail–you’re never going to get there. Covel and Kirk also explore Kirk’s background, and how someone with a PhD in mathematical physics ends up going to work for Goldman Sachs; why computer programming is “today’s literacy”; standing out from the crowd; trend following in the European scene vs. America; weighting positions based on risk; talking to clients and explaining that losses are statistically inevitable; whether the demand for discretionary traders is waning; how discretionary traders look at a trader like Kirk who is 100% systematic; why discretionary intervention in a systematic trading strategy disqualifies it from being truly systematic; proving a strategy as broken rather than proving that it’s right; why randomness is everything; uncertainty and convictions about technique; capturing the realism of the world in your trading strategy; what actually benefits the economy, society, and the world; seeking client feedback and understanding a client’s drivers; and the importance of consistent marginal improvements.

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Ep. 295: Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink
Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink

My guests today are Gerd Gigerenzer and Brian Wansink.

Gigerenzer is currently director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy.

Wansink is the John Dyson Professor of Marketing and the Director of the Cornell Food and Brand Lab in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University.

The topics are Gigerenzer’s book Risk Savvy: How to Make Good Decisions and Wansink’s book Slim by Design: Mindless Eating Solutions for Everyday Life.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Gigerenzer discuss the differences between Daniel Kahneman and Gigerenzer’s views; heuristics vs. statistics; the notion of medical check-ups, prostate cancer, and the PSA test; taking risks, and instincts vs. expert advice; relative vs. absolute risk; Benjamin Franklin’s ledger, heuristics, and romance; intuition, facts, unconscious intelligence, and gut decisions; being risk savvy and ordering in upscale restaurants, why Risk Savvy is an alternative to many other outlooks; the two tools to being risk savvy; the gaze heuristic and athletics; complex problems and simple heuristics.
  • Covel and Wansink discuss weight and obesity; our genes and environment as an effect on our health; “doing what skinny people do” and studying buffets; modeling the behavior of slim people; the advantages of chopsticks; the power of the grocery shopper of the household; triggers and tips to avoid unhealthy behavior that happens in restaurants; correlations between where you sit in a restaurant and eating choices; the three types of people in the context of nutrition; the influence of the environment on our eating habits; being slim by design vs. being slim by willpower; pursuing happiness vs. pursuing a purpose.

Listen to Susan Peirce Thompson’s views on dealing with willpower and using healthy eating habits to maintain the mental strength required for making financial decisions.

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Ep. 294: Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek
Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek

My guests today are Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek.

Nigol Koulajian’s firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following–specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies.

Donald Wieczorek is the Founder and President of Purple Valley Capital, Inc. He officially launched PVC and began managing client capital professionally using his systematic risk management strategy. He is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian’s background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulajian’s work today as a fund manager. the S&P 500 as a trading system; crowd psychology; replication strategies; price action as a trigger for different strategies; volatility, volatility compression, and why volatility is not the way to measure risk in the markets anymore; the Flash Crash; and trend following as a hedge to equity risk.
  • Covel and Wieczorek discuss Wieczorek’s early track record; Salem Abraham; drawdowns; Wieczorek’s first exposure to trend following; why losing early in your trading career can be a good thing; why you don’t need to predict market movement to make money; Jack Schwager and the Market Wizards series; and why systematic trading is more than just the technical system. Next, Covel and Wieczorek break apart some of Wieczorek’s monthly performance windows (trendfollowing.com/don.pdf), picking apart the psychology and context of certain months in Wieczorek’s career. Covel and Wieczorek continue on to talk about correlation between famous trend following traders; volatility and risk; and the value of crisis alpha.

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Ep. 293: The State Episode with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The State Episode with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The State Episode with Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My guests today are Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Smith.

Casey is the founder and chairman of Casey Research, a provider of paid subscription newsletter services espousing libertarian viewpoints as the justification for the purchase of highly speculative microcap stocks, precious metals, and other investments.

Smith is an American writer and blogger. He is the chief writer for the site “Of Two Minds”. Started in 2005, this site has been listed No. 7 in CNBC’s top alternative financial sites. Smith’s economic works stress the value and efficacy of decentralizing power and wealth, the individual’s power of self-determination and the value of community, which in his view has been diminished by the state.

The topics are state power and central planning.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Casey and Covel discuss what it’s like having traveled to over 175 countries and where one can find social and economic liberty today in this world; the advantages of being a perpetual tourist; why Casey describes himself as an anarchist; if whether there is a purpose anymore to voting in the United States of America; loyalty to the country where you were born; those who rule out the possibility of a financial panic in the future; quantitative easing and currency debasement; and what was the trigger for Casey’s turn at life as a global traveler.
  • Smith and Covel discuss how winners and are being selected by the state as exemplified by the 2008 financial crisis; alliances between corporations and the state; why there might be an uproar if equity markets were not at all-time highs; what happens when the typical wage earner can no longer substitute debt for earned income; stagnant wages and tradable labor; building your life around non state controlled opportunities; the decentralization of power and wealth; and the reliance on secrecy in politics to avoid accountability.

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Ep. 292: Christopher Cruden Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Christopher Cruden
Christopher Cruden

My guest today is Christopher Cruden, Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why price is an unimpeachable fact
  • Early “lightbulb” moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today
  • The notion of going currency only
  • Why Cruden’s program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather
  • Riding increased volatility and increased directional trending
  • Getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money
  • Benchmark selection and time period selection
  • Why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers
  • The duration of trades
  • Why if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it
  • How Cruden’s strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro
  • How markets teach humility
  • Why Cruden only trades once a day

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