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Hocus Pocus, Smoke and Mirrors Is Not Trend Following

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Very stimulating to hear [listen] an “original Turtle” still thrilled and verifying the TF he learned in 1983. Like Jerry Parker, as I read your books, validated in your course, I believed it “hook, line, and sinker.” The rest is hocus pocus, smoke and mirrors. Been there, done that.

Thanks,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 329: Terrance Odean Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Terrance Odean
Terrance Odean

My guest today is Terrance Odean, the Rudd Family Foundation Professor and Chair of the Finance Group at the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley. Odean has extensively researched into the empirical data on active trading. He is very well-known for his work in behavioral finance and is once of the early pioneers.

The topic is his extensive research into the empirical data on active trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Odean describes his work
  • How Odean started his work looking at individual broker statements
  • The disposition effect
  • How Odean was able to get individual investor data when he was starting out
  • Looking at early thinkers in the arena of behavioral finance
  • Why people buy low and sell high
  • Why statistics are one of the best ways to understand what’s going on in the market
  • The difference between male and female investors
  • Why overconfidence hurts investors
  • Attention and how we make decisions
  • Why a simple heuristic from Seinfeld could be the best way for most investors

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Ep. 328: Robert Seawright Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Seawright
Robert Seawright

My guest today is Robert Seawright, the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California. Seawright is also a columnist for Research magazine, a Contributing Editor at Portfolioist as well as a contributor to the Financial Times, The Big Picture, The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch, Pragmatic Capitalism, and ThinkAdvisor.

The topic is his blog A New Kind Of Investment Outlook.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Seawright was able to put together this blog piece
  • Perfection and prediction
  • Bias blindness
  • Volatility vs. risk
  • Separating your politics from your investing
  • Financial media as entertainment
  • Whether Seawright encountered any pushback after putting out his article
  • Letting go of the high leverage idea
  • Why the more we trade
  • The worse we do
  • Nobel laureate David Baltimore
  • Adversarial collaboration

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“David Stockman Everyone Should Hear It”

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Really enjoyed your interview with David Stockman. EVERYONE should hear it.

What struck you about David’s episode in particular?

What struck me: an entirely believable and rational explanation for world events that followed the slaughter of WW1. I have not read his book, but have now ordered it and look forward to hearing his take on the causes of that horrible and horribly unnecessary conflagration (WW1). I believe it was bankers that were at the root of it, as I believe they have been at the root of all wars since. A horrible, horrible bunch of psychopaths.

And the method by which bankers wreak their havoc is through fiat money, its issuance and their control of interest rates. They have to keep the world ignorant of this, which they do by control of the media and what is taught at universities (this they achieve by financing university chairs and appointing people that will not teach what is really going on in the world of finance).

Hopefully the major events presently taking place will lead to profound changes. In the meantime we rely on brave and honest people like you and David Stockman to do your profoundly important work of educating the ignorant.

Very best wishes,
[Name]

Thanks.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 326: Kabir Sehgal Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Kabir Sehgal
Kabir Sehgal

My guest today is Kabir Sehgal, a New York Times bestselling author and Grammy Award-winning producer. He is currently a vice president at JPMorgan Chase. Sehgal’s new book, Coined: The Rich Life of Money and How Its History Has Shaped Us, caught Covel’s eye. This is a subject layered in complexity and depth. Just about everything that goes on in our lives is decided by money and Sehgal digs into its story on a micro level.

The topic is his book Coined: The Rich Life of Money and How Its History Has Shaped Us.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Sehgal’s history
  • Sehgal’s experience winning a Grammy for production and the idea of “no boxes”
  • Why Sehgal sees his life like a jazz composition
  • Defining money as a symbol of value
  • The neurological effects and artistic aspects of money
  • The currency of the natural world
  • Whether Sehgal sees “money as the root of all evil”
  • The idea of charity
  • The politics of money
  • The internationalization of currency
  • Hyperinflation
  • Gold, and Sehgal’s experience going to the basement of the New York Fed
  • Digital money and bitcoin

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Ep. 324: David Stockman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

David Stockman
David Stockman

My guest today is David Stockman. Those that follow business and politics in the United States will recognize his name. Stockman has been a businessman, a Congressman, and Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan.

The topic is his book The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Woodrow Wilson piece
  • How Wilson brought the US into World War I and how the pain of the 1930’s and the pivot point of the 20th century was connected
  • Why the ATM’s going dark in 2008 wasn’t a true possibility
  • Zero interest rate policy and how we’re forcing people to spend down principal
  • How the Fed can generate massive bubbles

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Ep. 323: Jerry Parker Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jerry Parker
Jerry Parker

My guest today is Jerry Parker, an original Turtle, trained by Richard Dennis. However, since then he has very successfully run a managed money firm called Chesapeake Capital.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Series of tweets written by Parker and use them as a jumping-off point for conversation. Topics include price action, “normal” market behavior
  • Recent moves in the Swiss Franc
  • Paying attention to entries as well as exits
  • Why investors are often their own worst enemy
  • The first moment that Parker heard about price-based trading
  • Becoming obsessed with asymmetrical risk and reward
  • Why looking at trend following losses is important
  • Why you can tell a system is robust if it has big drawdowns
  • Backtesting and treating all trades with equal weight

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