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Deeper Issues At Play for Day Traders

Ed Seykota on day trading: “Traders use it medicinally as distraction from deeper issues.”


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Long Term Capital Management; Never Goes Out of Style!

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I am a trend-follower from Norway (the cold country in Europe!), for about 5 years. I just wanted to thank you for all the great information and books you are writing/providing. I have been trading the markets for about 10 years, but the first 5 years with losses. After the first 5 yrs, I sat down and did a great job of analyzing my mistakes, and with Amazon’s help, I found books that led me in the right direction (Starting with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator). I recommend this video [see video below] about LTCM. Very interesting. (related to risk management and black swan events). Thanks again.
Best regards,
Niels

Thanks! If you have not watched it–watch now.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 109: Richard Russell and Dow Theory with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Richard Russell and Dow Theory with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Richard Russell and Dow Theory with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My guest today is Richard Russell, an American writer on finance. He began publishing a newsletter called the Dow Theory Letters in 1958. The Letters covered his views on the stock market and the precious metal markets.

The topic is Dow Theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Views about the economy and the Fed
  • Gentleman’s blogpost in further detail, and notes how taking hold of data such as trading volume and confirming the Dow and transports together are almost fundamental-like in their approach
  • Local Malaysian food, Yoga, getting the tar beat out of him in a Thai massage, General Patton, and invites listeners to write in with questions about predictive vs. reactive technical analysis
  • Clip from famed basketball coach John Wooden at UCLA

Listen to this episode:

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Dave Ramsey, Rick Edelman & the Anal Probing of Investors

A reader writes:

Hey Mike. Davie [name] Here. You know Mike, there is something that I keep hearing from two of the most prominent financial advisers in the country and it drives me crazy every time I hear it. I can’t understand how two men who are obvious very intelligent and gifted can be so ignorant of the truth. The two men are Dave Ramsey, and Rick Edelman. I have heard them both on more than one occasion in which they were promoting their buy and hold philosophies that there are no “market timers in the forbes 400 wealthiest list”. Then they go on they point out that “however, the number 2 guy on the list, Warren Buffet is a long term buy and hold guy”. This just drives me crazy Mike because it simply isn’t true and two men who are “experts” in money ought to know better. Sure there is one guy who claims to be a buy and holder on the list named Warren Buffet though as you have pointed out, he really may not have built the bulk of that wealth through classic buy and hold strategies. But that’s beside the point. The point is that of course there are many many more than that one guy who are on that same list who are indeed market timers which is just a fancy word for trader. What is it with Ramsey and Edelman Mike? Have they not heard of George Soros, or Ray Dalio, or T Boone Pickens, Stevie Cohen, James Simons, Paul Tudor Jones, Stephen Feinberg, Bruce Kovner, Eddie Lampert, David Shaw, Louis Bacon, Jeffrey Gendell, Stephen Mandel, Israel Englander, Richard Perry, David Tepper, Stanley Drunkenmiller, William Von Mueffling, John Arnold, John Paulson, or Julian Robertson??? I could go on. All of these guys to my knowledge are billionaires whose net worth is high enough to be qualify for the Forbes 400 list. And that’s not to mention the hoards of “market timers” who may not be wealthy enough to be on the list but certainly are among the top one tenth of one percent of the world wealthiest individuals. Men such as Boaz Weinstein, or Bill Dunn. You know Mike, I can name a heck of a lot more super wealthy “market timers” than I can long term buy and holders. The only super wealthy buy and holders I can name are Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch. It really annoys me that Dave Ramsey and Rick Edelman continue to claim that no one can make any money by trading. It simply isn’t true. I was the guy who sent you the article from yahoo news about the guy who lost in faith in the market. If you read that article, you would have noticed that near the end of the article, they pointed out that the man they highlighted in the article had lost about 90% of his money and only had $800K left. Unbelievable Mike! You talk about taking a 50% draw down with buy and hold! This guy was a multimillionaire with about $8 million in his retirement account, and his buy and hold strategy combined with obvious additional poor choices resulted in him losing about $7.2 million dollars! Meanwhile, these “market timers” I mentioned above had their net worths rise and rise and rise through the past few years. I know this because, I remember reading about many of them in trader monthly magazine back in 2006 and many of them had not even accumulated a billion dollar net worth by then and now most of them are multi billionaires. I really wish Ramsey and Edelman would educate themselves more on this issue before they speak. There! I’m done ranting! I love ya man!

Thanks Davie, but Ramsey and Edelman do what they do on purpose. Very much on purpose. It’s up to everyone out there to figure out their motivations for misleading. Hints for their “why” can be found here: Dave Ramsey 5 foundations.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Is Objective, But Many Forms of Technical Analysis Are Subjective

If it sounds too good to be true, it is. Consider this excerpt pulled from “Winner Take All” by William R. Gallacher:

There is little point in exploring the Elliott Wave Theory because it is not a theory at all, but rather the banal observation that a price chart comprises a series of peaks and troughs. Depending on the time scale you use, there can be as many peaks and troughs as you care to imagine. Elliott thought that a bull market consisted of five peaks interrupted by five troughs. Trouble is, no two people can agree on what constitutes a peak or a trough, so there are as many interpretations as there are chartists.

Hmmm… some of my thoughts on day trading.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Wall Street Jargon Defined from a Trend Following Perspective

A few of Wall Street’s favorite catch phrases need to be defined:

CTA: CTA stands for commodity trading advisor. It is a government term used to classify regulated fund managers who primarily trade futures markets. Almost all successful CTAs trade as trend following traders. CTAs are the other quants the media never seems to cover accurately.

Managed Futures: This is a term that describes regulated fund managers who use futures to trade for clients. It is an awful term because it fixates on the instrument (futures), not the strategy. Here’s the dirty little secret: Almost all successful managed futures trading firms use a trend following strategy. The term is often used interchangeably with CTA. Noted radio host and author Dave Ramsey recently had this to say about managed futures: “The term managed futures is virtually an oxymoron…with managed futures you’re basically betting on the future price of a commodity. What’s the price of gold, or oil, or wheat going to be somewhere down the road? You’re guessing as to what the future will bring, and managing a group of those guesses. What a joke!” If you share Dave Ramsey’s view and understanding, I recommend a full frontal lobotomy as your best wealth-building plan.

High Frequency Trading: High frequency trading is the latest term to describe arbitrage— at whatever time frame. It is about getting an advantage through speed and access. Most people are not going to enter the world of high frequency trading (or be Goldman Sachs). It’s a nonissue for your trading success.

Global Macro or Systematic Global Macro: Global macro is another term used to describe trend following traders, but indirectly. They do not say managed futures, and they do not say hedge fund, so it is global macro. It might make wealthy investors in Liechtenstein and Saudi Arabia feel more secure. The strategy is still trend following.

Hedge Fund: Think unregulated mutual fund that can trade in all markets up and down. Most hedge funds have terrible strategy: They are long only on leveraged stocks. That’s it. Not as sexy as the press makes it. Of course, it all depends, and some hedge funds do make a killing. Usually, they are of the systematic trend following variety.

Long Only: Long only means you make one bet. You bet that the market will always go up.

Buy and Hold: Buy and hold strategy (hope) is the same as long only.

Index Investing: You buy the S&P 500 Index and whatever it does is the return you get.

Value Investing: Attempts to use fundamentals to uncover undervalued stocks. The belief is you are buying cheap or low (terms that can mean anything to anyone). When that doesn’t work out, you call the government and ask for a bailout.

Quant: You use formulas and rules, not daily discretion or fundamentals to make trading decisions. That said, unless quant is defined with precision you can never know what it means exactly. Trend following is a form of quant trading.

Repeatable Alpha: Alpha is return generated from trading skill. If you buy and hold the S&P 500 Index, and if it makes a positive return, that’s not alpha. That return is beta for there was no skill involved. Repeatable alpha is simply the nice academic way of saying profit from skill. Trend following’s argument as the only repeatable alpha is tough to counter.

Beta: The return you get for accepting the average. There is no skill involved. Think about a monkey aimlessly throwing darts against the wall— it’s that level of skill. Long: You buy a stock or futures contract.

Excerpted from Trend Commandments.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Bailout Nation Started in 1998 with Long Term Capital Management

Bailout nation started in 1998 with the bailout of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). Here was their annual report (PDF) that made them the darling of the investing world back in the day. Why bring it up today? LTCM is arguably at the root of current 2012 chaos. The first cut so to speak.

Shout to Barry Ritholtz for the title borrow!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.