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Tag: covel

I’m An Elitist

Posted on by Michael Covel

Great blog post from Seth Godin:

I’m an elitist

(You might be as well).

The market isn’t always right. It’s merely the market.

Mass appeal is not always better than doing something that matters.

Increasing shareholder value is not the primary purpose of a corporation.

News with a lot of clicks isn’t always important news.

Selling out to get popular is selling yourself short.

Lowering the price at the expense of sustainability is a fool’s game.

Only producing tools that don’t need an instruction manual takes power away from those prepared to learn how to use powerful tools. And it’s okay to write a book that some people won’t finish, or a video that some don’t understand.

Giving people what they want isn’t always what they want.

Curators create value. We need more curators, and not from the usual places.

Creating and reinforcing cultural standards and institutions that elevate us is more urgent than ever.

We write history about people who were brave enough to lead, not those that figured out how to pander to the crowd.

Elites aren’t defined by birth or wealth, they are people with a project, individuals who want to do work they believe in, folks seeking to make an impact. Averaging down everything we do so that it becomes cheap and ubiquitous and palatable to all is a hollow goal.

Love it. That has been my goal since day 1.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Your Podcast Is the Best Thing in Media”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Todd Foster writes:

Just wanted to say that your podcast is the best thing in media. Content is so thought provoking. Your style with guests is gracious and engaging. You appear to be a great example of purposeful living, and you’re positive energy is contagious. Thank you!

Thanks Todd.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 213: Jonathan Hoenig Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jonathan Hoenig
Jonathan Hoenig

 

My guest today is Jonathan Hoenig, an American, founding member of the Capitalist Pig hedge fund, and a regular contributor to and regular panelist on Fox News Channel’s Cashin’ In, Your World with Neil Cavuto, Red Eye w/ Greg Gutfeld and WLS 890’s morning show, Don Wade & Roma.

The topic is his documentary Pit Trading 101.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Hoenig’s branding for his hedge fund, Capitalist Pig
  • Why capitalism has become demonized
  • The difference between capitalism and crony capitalism
  • Ayn Rand and capitalism as the “unknown ideal”
  • How Hoenig ended up in the Chicago trading pits, and what we can learn from studying pit trading today
  • The physical type of pit traders
  • The subculture of the pits
  • Where Hoenig sees futures markets going
  • The blame of speculators
  • America’s place in the world today

Listen to this episode:

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Games People Play: Trend Following A Wise One

Posted on by Michael Covel

Always make sure you are a player in the game whether it be sports, business, or just life. Never let yourself be the one being played. Below is a chapter taken from Trend Commandments:

You can make your first million—and that is the hard number. Anyone can do it. Of course, billions, and degrees of billions, require some luck. However, an educated person, no matter how they get their education, can indeed saddle up to their iPad and make a small fortune. To say otherwise is disingenuous.

The world has changed. The game is different. If you are sitting around waiting for a job to magically appear, or if you are listening to talking heads rambling on about politicians creating jobs, or worse yet, you think China is the enemy to your wealth creation, it has to be asked: “Are you a masochist?”

There is another game to play. Trend following trading is that game, but it is terribly important to avoid becoming the game—a game I have explained in a multitude of ways. So think about the three types of players in any game:

  • Those who know they are in the game.
  • Those who do not know they are in the game.
  • Those who do not know they are in the game and have become the game.

Within a half hour of playing any game, if you do not know the patsy, you are it. Said another way: You are the game. That is serious talk for the serious game of your financial health and wealth.

Always be aware and stay ahead of the game.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

High Winning Percentage: Not Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Michael, I’ve enjoyed your books on trend following and your podcast for several years. The foundational truth and simplicity in trend following inspired me to create my own ETF trend following trading strategy in 2007. I call this [name].

The objective of [name] is to identify markets that are trending up and to sell or to short markets that are trending down and to avoid and significant losses on any single trade. No surprises here for you.

The composite average of my returns over the past six years has been solidly better than the benchmark averages as illustrated below:

The six year cumulative return (2008-2013) by asset class, of my [name] signals is as follows:

Benchmark. [name]
US Stock Indexes. 36.6%. 221.1%
S&P Sectors 36.6%. 474.1%
Commodities. (29.9%). 399.2%
World Stock Indexes. (27.0 %). 87.4%
Currencies. 0.7%. 2.1%
Bonds. 11.7%. 55.0%

[name] winning trade signals were 78% winners in 2013 on 265 trades covering all markets that I follow. Historically this winning trade percentage is around 85%.

I have published a weekly newsletter since [date] that gives my readers buy and sell signals at times for 40 different markets. I’ve now narrowed that coverage to just under 30 markets over five different asset classes: US Stock Indexes, S&P 500 Sectors, Commodities, World Stock Indexes, and Bonds. I use to cover Currency but returns were so small after six years that I’ve abandoned this asset group.

I don’t have a strong readership following as I guess I’m not the best marketer. To be honest this is not my full time job. I’ve been a Aerospace Industry CFO since [date]. As managing risk is one of my core responsibilities, trend following seemed a very logical approach to investing to me. I did get my start in the securities business in 1981 after graduating college. So I’ve been an active trader since. I’ve found nothing more effective to use in my personal trading experience, which is where and why I started. After reading your books you gave me the inspiration to try to find a an approach that would work for me. Upon coming up with my strategies, I started to share it with my friends. As of now, no one is paying for my service, I just like sharing my approach with close friends and a few people who had paid me for a subscription in the past.

I’ve attached my past six years history performance for of my signals compared to my benchmark markets as well as my current newsletter.

As the world’s leading authority on trend following I would respectfully enjoy hearing your comments.

Regards,

[Name]
[Country]

Thanks for the note. I have a full schedule now, but perhaps in months to come can examine in detail.

Your winning percentage however means you are not a trend follower, correct?

Note: Rhetorical from me. High winning percentage is not trend following. His effort may be fine, but what he describes in this email is not trend following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 210: Seykota, Harding and the Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Seykota, Harding and the Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Seykota, Harding and the Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Seykota, Harding & the 2014 Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 209: Dave Rapach Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Dave Rapach
Dave Rapach

My guest today is Dave Rapach, an internationally renowned researcher in the area of asset return forecasting. His research is highly cited and published in leading scholarly and practitioner journals in Finance and Economics. Rapach is a Professor of Economics and holds the John Simon Endowed Chair in Economics at the Saint Louis University Chaifetz School of Business.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why trend following works from an academic standpoint
  • “Publish or perish” and the difficulty of publishing scholarly articles on trend following
  • Early research on trend following, the random walk theory, and Burton Malkiel’s “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”
  • Warren Buffett, Bill Dunn, and survivorship bias
  • A paper that Rapach traces to the reintroduction of trend following and technical analysis to the academic community
  • Measuring systematic risk
  • Eugene Fama’s recent nobel prize
  • How the trend following world has been neglected by the academic community
  • How Rapach found his way into the academic finance world
  • Covel’s experience digging in to trend following research in the early to mid 1990’s
  • Some of Rapach’s recent papers
  • Why recessions are good for trend following

Listen to this episode:

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