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Best of Luck to You and Your Team in 2015

Feedback in:

Michael, hope this finds you well. Just wanted to pass along my sincere thanks to you for you and your podcast and all you have done for me in the last year. First heard you on a Stansberry radio podcast sometime earlier this year. Intrigued by what you said, I happened to search for and find your podcast. Started fervently listening from #1 to the end. This started an amazing journey for me. I have been researching and reading everything on Trend Following. Still have a lot to learn, but I would still be in the dark without you. Best of luck to you and your team in 2015. I sincerely appreciate all you do.

Thank you,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 315: Michael Mauboussin Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Mauboussin
Michael Mauboussin

My guest today is Michael Mauboussin, an investment strategist in the financial services industry, professor at the Columbia Graduate School of Business, and serves on the board of trustees at the Sante Fe Institute (an independent, nonprofit theoretical research institute). He is managing director and head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, where he advises clients on valuation and portfolio positioning, capital markets theory, competitive strategy analysis, and decision making.

The topics are his books More Than You Know and Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Multi-disciplinary thinking and its influence on Covel
  • Looking at larger reference classes
  • The Swiss Franc
  • Mauboussin’s personal take on the recent oil move
  • Fundamentals and expectation
  • Luck or skill when it comes to trading profits
  • The paradox of skill, absolute, and relative skill
  • Whether scientific principles of luck exist
  • Defining luck
  • Outcome bias
  • The general public perception of behavioral economics

Listen to this episode:

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Trend Following Match-Making?

Feedback in:

Hi Mike: I wanted to thank you so much for everything you have shared and taught. I have been working day and night for the last couple of years (it seems) on designing/backtesting my system. It is a blend of styles and EMA crossover (Ed Seykota style). The returns are consistent with other trend following returns. Do you ever link traders with investors? I know this might sound off but I just need funds to execute this system. The podcasts are just so awesome in that they have so much quality meaningful substance. Please keep it up!

I don’t have a mechanism for match-making.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Thoughts on the Feedback Following my Tom Basso Interview Podcast

Some great feedback came through the other other day:

It’s because of you my friend that I’ve come to know so many in the space. Thanks for your efforts.

His personal message to me (above) was followed by his newsletter to his clients:

In my career, I’ve had many mentors, some of which I’ve met and some not.

Tom Basso is one of these people, and I was fortunate to get to meet him last week where he was generous enough to give me over two hours of his time over lunch in Scottsdale. Tom is also getting added to the email list and may be able to contribute some wisdom from time to time.

The Trader Tom Basso
Tom Basso Picture from Twitter

Tom Basso trader is probably most known for being profiled in the bestseller, The New Market Wizards, where he was nicknamed “Mr. Serenity.”

The scope of our discussion was very broad… Tom left the money management business largely because of the frustration of working with clients who constantly made poor decisions that were rooted in fear and greed. Tom produced decades of double digit gains for clients on a very attractive risk-adjusted basis yet many never achieved these results because of emotions and performance chasing. As you know, I write on these subjects regularly because they matter that much.

One thing Tom mentioned that was particularly interesting was how at the later stages of his career (approximately 10 years ago) Tom put together a diversified program that was a combination of strategies, asset classes, and products (meaning futures, ETF’s, mutual funds, etc.). He said he himself was the largest customer and it seemed that many people just simply didn’t grasp the value. Regulatory restrictions about combining multiple products together (such as equities and futures) made it overly obstructive. This, in essence, is exactly what I’m trying to do with LCD (Lorintine Capital Diversified) as it mimics endowment level diversification.

The benefit of a multi-strategy single account is it doesn’t give you the opportunity to miss the forest through the trees and take from those who may be underperforming in the short term in favor of those who are currently performing best…essentially the process of buy HIGH and sell LOW where you should be doing the opposite. Tom mentioned how he had a client during the Black Monday crash of 1987 (largest single down day in history where the Dow lost over 22%) that he had set up one account as a stock portfolio and another account as a hedging portfolio where he would short equity futures based on his quantitative market measurements… The client ended up making money on Black Monday (about 1.5% from Tom’s memory) while of course the stock account was down significantly it was more than offset by the short futures account…The client ended up firing Tom as an equity manager because they couldn’t see past the losses in the stock account…yet if this would have been done collectively in one account they would have only seen the net gain (on the worst day in history where many traders went bankrupt). Unfortunately, I’ve witnessed much of this type of behavior in 2014 as some things never change.

This game is incredibly simple, yet not at all easy. It’s simple the same way that getting in shape or losing weight is – just get on almost any decent diet and work out consistently and you are almost guaranteed results… yet few have the discipline to do it day after day for the long term. Make it your goal in 2015 to follow your plan. If you don’t really have a plan it’s like not being able to spot the sucker at the poker table… because you’re it.

Enjoy the ride!
[Name]

Thanks! Read more on new edition reviews. Be sure to listen to my special compilation of Thomas Basso Podcast Highlights and my interviews with Mr Serenity here and Here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 314: Peter Larson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Peter Larson
Peter Larson

My guest today is Peter Larson, an American paleontologist, fossil collector, and president of the Black Hills Institute of Geological Research, a company that excavates, prepares, and sells fossils. He led the team that excavated “Sue”, the largest and most complete specimen of Tyrannosaurus rex found to date, and has published numerous scientific and popular works on dinosaur paleontology.

The topic is paleontology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Luck’s role in finding dinosaurs
  • Larson’s personal anecdotes about finding “Sue”
  • Whether Larson knew at the time that he was finding a piece of “land” in a legal sense
  • The scientific data that Larson was able to glean before the government took the bones
  • Telling a male dinosaur from a female dinosaur
  • What makes Larson a T-Rex entrepreneur
  • T-Rex as a predator or scavenger
  • The legal case surrounding “Sue”

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 313: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud
Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

My guest today is Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, a French physicist. He is co-founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management, adjunct professor at École Normale Supérieure and co-director of the CFM-Imperial Institute of Quantitative Finance at Imperial College London.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • His firm’s performance for 2014
  • Whether trend following actually “died” prior to it’s “reappearance” in 2014
  • What trend following manages to exploit
  • Exploiting vs. exploring
  • Looking at volatility as a precursor to profit
  • Volatility as a measure of risk
  • Trend following as a genuine market anomaly
  • The behavioral biases in play as oil has fallen fifty percent plus
  • The feedback Bouchaud has received from peers on his newest paper
  • Whether other strategies exploit a genuine market anomaly
  • Bouchaud’s philosophy on transparency and “secrets” in his work
  • Why Bouchaud’s work culture is not a culture of MBA’s

Listen to this episode:

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Gaining Experience in the World of Trend Following

A recent exchange:

Listener: I would enjoy the opportunity to gain lots of experience in the world of trend following. I would like to explore the opportunity of offering my employment services free of charge to anyone (yourself included) who could benefit from the services of a young, ambitious, intelligent and entrepreneurial spirit. I need to change my family’s life. We are a young family of 5 with a 7, 2 and 5 month old. My wife and I have discussed this at length, and I am ready to put in 24 hr days anywhere in the world. I have been an entrepreneur all my life. I am not scared to work. I am willing to relocate if you would agree that any opportunity presenting itself warrants it, or work remotely on any endeavour where I can gain more knowledge and some first hand experience. I am sure this is not the first email of this type that you have received. But mark my words, I am willing to give my all to anyone who needs assistance and help them make a lot of money! I just want to learn this business and learn from the best players in the industry if possible. I am ready for this. I have been on the outside looking in for way too long. I want to make the leap but do not have the experience. I am available any time of day or night to discuss this in further detail if necessary. 2015 needs to be a fresh start for me and my family. I am ready to give my all to whomever could use a hard worker in their business.

Covel: You have gone through all of my books and all of my podcast? My first big question.

Listener: No I have not completed all of the books and podcasts as of yet. I am completing the books and will have to start the podcasts. Admittedly, I have only ever listened to one podcast in my whole life which was one in which you were a guest speaker and that was via YouTube. I will commit to reading all of the books and listening to all of the podcasts by Wednesday Jan 14th at midnight. I will email you with my progress by 9am est on Wed Jan 15th or sooner if I complete this task earlier.

Weeks later:

Listener: I am in the process of finishing the books and have a big task of listening to all of the podcasts now. Would you like for me to ensure I have listened to them all before re-contacting you? I apologize for being late as I stated I would email by 9am this morning.

Covel: Sure, but you will also have many answers then.

Listener: Not sure I follow what you have said. Sorry. I had originally contacted you asking if you had any ideas or opportunities for employment or for me to enter the field and then you had asked if I read the books and listened to the podcasts.

Covel: Exactly. Your question will go a long way to being answered if you follow my instructions.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.