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Ep. 216: Jack Schwager Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jack Schwager
Jack Schwager

My guest today is Jack Schwager, a recognized industry expert in futures and hedge funds and the author of a number of widely acclaimed financial books. Schwager is one of the founders of Fund Seeder. Previously, he was a partner in the Fortune Group, a London-based hedge fund advisory firm. His prior experience also includes 22 years as Director of Futures research for some of Wall Street’s leading firms, most recently Prudential Securities.

The topic is his book The Little Book of Market Wizards.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Fund Seeder acts as a liason for traders and investors
  • The difficulty of starting out as a new trader
  • How Fund Seeder is a global opportunity
  • Schwager’s last book, Hedge Fund Market Wizards
  • The timeless quality of the Market Wizards books
  • Jesse Livermore’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
  • How human nature is the only thing that will never change
  • Looking for a “secret recipe” in the Market Wizards book
  • “The Upside of Down: Why Failing Well Is The Key To Success” by Megan McArdle
  • Why failure is smart and an essential part of success
  • The importance of failure in the context of education
  • Behavioral economics
  • Jack Horner and thinking outside of the box
  • The importance of loving what you do for a living
  • The importance of travel

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New Trend Following Chinese Trader

A recent exchange:

Yuhui: When knowing that if someone strictly uses a trading system that its mathematical expectation is positive in a long time then he will get profit, but a question suddenly came to my mind: What will happen if everyone trades like this? Although in your book[s] you have listed several reasons why there are always many people won’t be the trend traders, but [a] positive math expectation trading system can be easily written to the computer and automatically executed by the computers now. Meanwhile, It’s said that this kind automatic trading system is already generally used in the futures market. I want to know what do you think how trend-trading will [perform] when in this condition. What’s more, I’m wondering about how your life is currently. As a successful trader are you living a free and relaxing life, or busy in dealing with the matter of your company. Finally, if possible, expecting the trend-following DVD, my address is [address] and my telephone number is [#], and my name is Yuhui (喻 辉).

Covel: My five books outline why not everyone will become a trend following trader. It’s often against human nature and people dislike drawdowns. They seem more comfortable with black swans that wipe it out all (their accounts that is). You can follow my life here: podcast.

Yuhui: Thanks for replying. Have read your books again and again and some story impressed me very much. Also read the reason you list why not everyone become a trend following trader. But once upon a time I read a book and remembering that the introduction of the author saying that his average income of programming automatic futures trading system can be up to 8% per month. So I just have an idea that what if everyone trades like him in the market? Maybe this condition will never happen because people are easy to be influenced by the cognitive bias in the trading, but somehow I still feel confused about this. And here is my address in Chinese and English.

Covel: 8% a month? Not a wise goal. That will not happen on a consistent basis that you can count on.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

I’m An Elitist

Great blog post from Seth Godin:

I’m an elitist

(You might be as well).

The market isn’t always right. It’s merely the market.

Mass appeal is not always better than doing something that matters.

Increasing shareholder value is not the primary purpose of a corporation.

News with a lot of clicks isn’t always important news.

Selling out to get popular is selling yourself short.

Lowering the price at the expense of sustainability is a fool’s game.

Only producing tools that don’t need an instruction manual takes power away from those prepared to learn how to use powerful tools. And it’s okay to write a book that some people won’t finish, or a video that some don’t understand.

Giving people what they want isn’t always what they want.

Curators create value. We need more curators, and not from the usual places.

Creating and reinforcing cultural standards and institutions that elevate us is more urgent than ever.

We write history about people who were brave enough to lead, not those that figured out how to pander to the crowd.

Elites aren’t defined by birth or wealth, they are people with a project, individuals who want to do work they believe in, folks seeking to make an impact. Averaging down everything we do so that it becomes cheap and ubiquitous and palatable to all is a hollow goal.

Love it. That has been my goal since day 1.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Legacy of the Legendary Trader Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was an outstanding trader. The insights he shared with the world are invaluable. Josh Brown wrote a great article featured on www.ritholtz.com pointing out some of his great nuggets of wisdom as well as how he would react in this day and age with news outlets streaming 24/7:

There are those who would convince you that it is somehow smart or in your best interest to be manically switching your investments around, back and forth, long and short, on a daily basis. To pay attention to this kind of overstimulation is the height of madness, even for professional traders.

The most storied and important trader who ever lived, Jesse Livermore, would be tuning these daily buy and sell calls out were he alive and operating today. Because while he was a trader, he was not of the mindset that there was always some kind of action to be taking.

Jesse Livermore’s legacy is a bit of a double-edged sword…

On the one hand, he was the first to codify the ancient language of supply and demand that is every bit as relevant 100 years later as it was when he first relayed it to biographer Edwin Lefèvre. Livermore himself sums it up thusly: “I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”

On the other hand, Livermore’s undoing came at precisely the moments in which he ignored his own advice. After repeated admonitions about tipsters, for example, Jesse allowed a tip on cotton to lead to a massive loss which grew even larger as he sat on it – violating yet another of his own cardinal rules.

And of course, other than for a few moments of temporary triumph in the trading pits and bucket shops of the era, Jesse Livermore was not a happy man. “Things haven’t gone well with me,” he informed one of his many wives by handwritten note, before putting a bullet through his own head in the cloakroom of the Sherry-Netherland Hotel.

But he did leave behind a wealth of knowledge about the art of speculation. His exploits (and cautionary tales of woe) have educated, influenced and inspired every generation of trader since Reminiscences was first published in 1923.

In my opinion, some of the most useful bits of knowledge we get from the book concern Jesse’s discussion of timeframes and patience. Many traders, particularly rookies, approach the game with the idea that they’re supposed to be constantly doing something – in and out, with a trembling finger poised to click the mouse again and again. Consequently, they get on the treadmill of booking wins and losses without ever really moving the needle. They end up with tons of brokerage commissions and taxes to show for their efforts, but not much else.

Being a trader doesn’t mean one must always be executing a trade, just as being a house painter doesn’t mean that every surface needs an endless series of coats.

Many rookies are surprised to learn that Livermore, the idol of so many great traders, advocated a lower maintenance, higher patience approach as he matured. In his early days, Livermore was dependent on the short-term funding and scalping activity of the bucket shops. Once he graduated and had his own capital, he was able to lengthen position holding times and could even afford to do nothing for extended periods.

Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:

  • “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
  • “It takes time to make money.”
  • “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
  • “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
  • “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
  • “Buy right, sit tight.”
  • “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
  • “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

and finally, the most important thing: “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

Jesse was a trader but he knew the value of staying with positions and sometimes not trading at all. Once he began to follow tips from others or trade when he should have abstained, all of his progress had come undone, and with it, his sanity.

We are fortunate to be able to learn from his mistakes and to sidestep the errors that eventually cost him everything.

Jesse Livermore Books:

• How to Trade in Stocks (PDF)
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (PDF)


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 213: Jonathan Hoenig Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jonathan Hoenig
Jonathan Hoenig

 

My guest today is Jonathan Hoenig, an American, founding member of the Capitalist Pig hedge fund, and a regular contributor to and regular panelist on Fox News Channel’s Cashin’ In, Your World with Neil Cavuto, Red Eye w/ Greg Gutfeld and WLS 890’s morning show, Don Wade & Roma.

The topic is his documentary Pit Trading 101.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Hoenig’s branding for his hedge fund, Capitalist Pig
  • Why capitalism has become demonized
  • The difference between capitalism and crony capitalism
  • Ayn Rand and capitalism as the “unknown ideal”
  • How Hoenig ended up in the Chicago trading pits, and what we can learn from studying pit trading today
  • The physical type of pit traders
  • The subculture of the pits
  • Where Hoenig sees futures markets going
  • The blame of speculators
  • America’s place in the world today

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Games People Play: Trend Following A Wise One

Always make sure you are a player in the game whether it be sports, business, or just life. Never let yourself be the one being played. Below is a chapter taken from Trend Commandments:

You can make your first million—and that is the hard number. Anyone can do it. Of course, billions, and degrees of billions, require some luck. However, an educated person, no matter how they get their education, can indeed saddle up to their iPad and make a small fortune. To say otherwise is disingenuous.

The world has changed. The game is different. If you are sitting around waiting for a job to magically appear, or if you are listening to talking heads rambling on about politicians creating jobs, or worse yet, you think China is the enemy to your wealth creation, it has to be asked: “Are you a masochist?”

There is another game to play. Trend following trading is that game, but it is terribly important to avoid becoming the game—a game I have explained in a multitude of ways. So think about the three types of players in any game:

  • Those who know they are in the game.
  • Those who do not know they are in the game.
  • Those who do not know they are in the game and have become the game.

Within a half hour of playing any game, if you do not know the patsy, you are it. Said another way: You are the game. That is serious talk for the serious game of your financial health and wealth.

Always be aware and stay ahead of the game.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

High Winning Percentage: Not Trend Following

Feedback in:

Michael, I’ve enjoyed your books on trend following and your podcast for several years. The foundational truth and simplicity in trend following inspired me to create my own ETF trend following trading strategy in 2007. I call this [name].

The objective of [name] is to identify markets that are trending up and to sell or to short markets that are trending down and to avoid and significant losses on any single trade. No surprises here for you.

The composite average of my returns over the past six years has been solidly better than the benchmark averages as illustrated below:

The six year cumulative return (2008-2013) by asset class, of my [name] signals is as follows:

Benchmark. [name]
US Stock Indexes. 36.6%. 221.1%
S&P Sectors 36.6%. 474.1%
Commodities. (29.9%). 399.2%
World Stock Indexes. (27.0 %). 87.4%
Currencies. 0.7%. 2.1%
Bonds. 11.7%. 55.0%

[name] winning trade signals were 78% winners in 2013 on 265 trades covering all markets that I follow. Historically this winning trade percentage is around 85%.

I have published a weekly newsletter since [date] that gives my readers buy and sell signals at times for 40 different markets. I’ve now narrowed that coverage to just under 30 markets over five different asset classes: US Stock Indexes, S&P 500 Sectors, Commodities, World Stock Indexes, and Bonds. I use to cover Currency but returns were so small after six years that I’ve abandoned this asset group.

I don’t have a strong readership following as I guess I’m not the best marketer. To be honest this is not my full time job. I’ve been a Aerospace Industry CFO since [date]. As managing risk is one of my core responsibilities, trend following seemed a very logical approach to investing to me. I did get my start in the securities business in 1981 after graduating college. So I’ve been an active trader since. I’ve found nothing more effective to use in my personal trading experience, which is where and why I started. After reading your books you gave me the inspiration to try to find a an approach that would work for me. Upon coming up with my strategies, I started to share it with my friends. As of now, no one is paying for my service, I just like sharing my approach with close friends and a few people who had paid me for a subscription in the past.

I’ve attached my past six years history performance for of my signals compared to my benchmark markets as well as my current newsletter.

As the world’s leading authority on trend following I would respectfully enjoy hearing your comments.

Regards,

[Name]
[Country]

Thanks for the note. I have a full schedule now, but perhaps in months to come can examine in detail.

Your winning percentage however means you are not a trend follower, correct?

Note: Rhetorical from me. High winning percentage is not trend following. His effort may be fine, but what he describes in this email is not trend following.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.