My guests today are Nigol Koulajian and Donald Wieczorek.
Nigol Koulajian’s firm is Quest Partners, LLC and is approaching one billion AUM. Koulajian has a very interesting take on trend following–specifically his take on replicating famous trend following strategies.
Donald Wieczorek is the Founder and President of Purple Valley Capital, Inc. He officially launched PVC and began managing client capital professionally using his systematic risk management strategy. He is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Koulajian and Covel discuss Koulajian’s background and entrepreneurism within Lebanese culture; how Koulajian got his start, and how he found his way into the systematic strategies he employs today; the influence of Van Tharp; the importance of practices like transcendental meditation and yoga on the mental side of trading and in the context of Koulajian’s work today as a fund manager. the S&P 500 as a trading system; crowd psychology; replication strategies; price action as a trigger for different strategies; volatility, volatility compression, and why volatility is not the way to measure risk in the markets anymore; the Flash Crash; and trend following as a hedge to equity risk.
Covel and Wieczorek discuss Wieczorek’s early track record; Salem Abraham; drawdowns; Wieczorek’s first exposure to trend following; why losing early in your trading career can be a good thing; why you don’t need to predict market movement to make money; Jack Schwager and the Market Wizards series; and why systematic trading is more than just the technical system. Next, Covel and Wieczorek break apart some of Wieczorek’s monthly performance windows (trendfollowing.com/don.pdf), picking apart the psychology and context of certain months in Wieczorek’s career. Covel and Wieczorek continue on to talk about correlation between famous trend following traders; volatility and risk; and the value of crisis alpha.
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My guest today is Christopher Cruden, Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL) in London, a famed trend following shop. He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Why price is an unimpeachable fact
Early “lightbulb” moments that brought Cruden to the style of trading he practices today
The notion of going currency only
Why Cruden’s program is akin to a raincoat in bad weather
Riding increased volatility and increased directional trending
Getting clients to understand that you cannot force a system to make money
Benchmark selection and time period selection
Why the S&P 500 is a trading system; performance drivers
The duration of trades
Why if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it
How Cruden’s strategy would change if Europe reverted back to before the introduction of the Euro
How markets teach humility
Why Cruden only trades once a day
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Saw this article and immediately thought about trend following. There are the obvious aspects like being systematic, following the trend lines and thinking for the longer term. The interesting part was the discussion of the retiree and the temptation of the markets to derail his disciplined approach. I see the temptation of the markets being the greatest enemy to the discipline required to be a trend-following trader. Please enjoy.
Thanks,
[Name]
PS. Thanks for you all your work. It’s really appreciated.
My guests today are Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates and Robin Griffiths, the Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC.
The topic is markets.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle.
Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies.
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My guest today is Alex Greyserman, Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. He is a member of the ISAM Systematic Investment Committee. He has 25 years of experience in the Managed Futures industry, having starting initially as Research Director at Mint Investment Management Co.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman’s continue to have tremendous success
Alternatives to thinking only ‘long stocks’
Greyserman’s first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together
Why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade
The difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum
The phrase “crisis alpha” and why trend following does well in times of crisis
The cost of not having trend following in your portfolio
Benchmarking and diversification
Why the worst thing you can do is “trend follow a trend follower”
The science of trend following
Speculation
Trend following your life–not just the markets
Dispersion among trend following traders
Effect of a higher rate environment
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My guest today is Anthony Todd, the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Why prices aren’t random
Finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge
The idea of “predictable” patterns in the market
The desire to know static positions
How crowd behavior drives trends
Addressing misconceptions
Using fundamentals in a systematic way
Defining Todd’s medium-term style of trend following
Why “it’s less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach”
How long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it
Client understanding of trend following drawdowns
The phraseology of “crisis alpha”
The culture that Todd has built at Aspect
Todd’s advice to young entrepreneurs.
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