Trend following does not pick bottoms or tops. You always get into a trend late, and get out late. You cannot predict a trend. That chart might not seem like a great strategy at first glance, but it is the foundation of one of the most profitable insights in the history of market speculation: capture the middle meat and you can make a fortune.
My guest today is Vineer Bhansali, the managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO. His most recent book is “Tail Risk Hedging”. He has 24 years of investment experience and holds a Ph.D. in theoretical particle physics from Harvard University.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
“Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”
Trend following in the classical sense
How trend following started to become part of the discussion at PIMCO
Introducing new ideas to PIMCO, corporate culture, and to clients
The three hypotheses tested in “Trend Following Through The Rates Cycle”
Currency trading and trend following returns
Why larger trend following shops may have trouble getting into smaller markets
Trend following across a diversified portfolio and classical trend following approaches
Connecting Bhansali’s hobbies to the quantitative world
Structure and thinking in terms of code
Imagining and building simulations
Being distribution aware
Why being at all-time highs is not the time to feel satisfied
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Reiman, who runs Brighthouse, has been called the “father of ideation”. He’s emerged as the subject matter expert in the area of purpose inspired leadership, marketing, and innovation. His breakthrough purpose methodology and frameworks have been adopted by the likes of the Boston Consulting Group, Procter & Gamble, The Coca-Cola Company, McDonald’s, KPMG, and many other Fortune 500 companies across the globe. As an adjunct professor at the Goizueta School of Business at Emory University, he teaches tomorrow’s executives his revolutionary theories and applications for purpose-inspired profit.
Brenkus is the host of the ESPN show, Sport Science. Sport Science is an ongoing television series that explores the science and engineering underlying athletic endeavors.
The topics are marketing and sports science.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Covel and Reiman discuss Reiman’s background and mission in life; looking for meaning; figuring out your “why”; the process of teaching, and the areas where certain people may get tripped up; looking back to your beginnings; the destructiveness of outside voices; calmness and contemplation; solitude vs. aloneness; “money doesn’t create ideas–ideas create money”; why daydreaming isn’t necessarily a bad thing; creativity and environments; changing the world through changing your routine; routine and creativity; thinking with your heart as much as your mind; Apple vs. Google; raw talent, creativity, and environment; lucky people and “yes” people; the power of “slow”; and the importance of storytelling.
Anything about statistics and science has the potential to inspire Covel and with John Brenkus, he goes straight into it; Also discussed: what triggered the science and sports connection in Brenkus’ brain; science and martial arts; measuring human performance; why success doesn’t follow a straight line; Brenkus’ college experiences and how they are relevant to his work today; the idea of physical limits being reached; why Brenkus became a crash test dummy; the advantage of applying science to any aspect of life; and the Iron Man competition.
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My guest today is Mark Broadie, the Carson Family Professor of Business and Vice Dean at the Columbia Business School. His research focuses on quantitative finance and sports analytics. His golf research has appeared in academic journals and many golf publications. He developed the new strokes gained approach to analyze the performance of amateur and professional golfers and worked with the PGA Tour on their implementation of the strokes gained putting stat.
The topic is his book Every Shot Counts: Using the Revolutionary Strokes Gained Approach to Improve Your Golf Performance and Strategy.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
How he became, in Covel’s words, the “Bill James of golf”
How Broadie connected his finance work to the sport of golf
Why certain golfers win
Why approach shots are the most important
“Drive for show, putt for dough”
How Broadie started, the software he used, and how he got better data
Whether Broadie had any sense of where the data might go when he first collected it
Power as a separator
The connection between sports anaylitics, business analytics, and investing
The psychology of golf
First putts vs. second putts
The world golf rankings, and how these can be fixed
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My guest today is Larry Swedroe, a Buckingham Asset Management principal. He is also a principal and co-founder of BAM Advisor Services, LLC, and serves as the director of research for both entities. Swedroe has authored or co-authored fourteen books and comes at investing from an evidence-based approach.
The topic is outside the box market perspectives.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Forecasters and prediction
The three types of forecasters
Confirmation bias
How your political affiliation might change your willingness to listen to forecasts
Value perspective vs. momentum perspective
The anomaly of momentum
The evidence-based thinking approach
Momentum trading in 2008
How Swedroe prepares for the unexpected
Not treating the unlikely like it’s impossible
Managing your risk
Process vs. outcome
The equity risk premium and bear markets
Commonplace crises
Planning ahead
Diversification attempts to get outside of equities
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A Million Words and Justifications with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Please enjoy my monologue A Million Words and Justifications with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
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