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Gotta Lie To Get Invited Back

After posting the below commentary on my Facebook page I got an interesting response:

This exchange followed:

Alan: Thank you for your thoughtful analysis of my market commentary March 16th. A “Trend Follower” should appreciate my confidence and reasoning that the bull run is still intact. As a market veteran of 25 years with thousands of TV appearances this may be a great opportunity to discuss the insignificance of news nonsense with your podcast listeners. Pick a time I would like to come on to talk media and its negative impact on trading discipline. I am the first to tell traders to turn off the TV as there is very little to help you make money. It is mostly infotainment to keep you emotional and tuned in to pay advertisers. In fact, I have developed a financial news aggregator to search, sort and share market video. The time saving app breaks down the markets into categories and plots the videos from news sources on price and time charts for perspective. That said I make the best effort to give a well thought out actionable trade idea on each of my appearances as opposed to speaking in broad generalizations. Trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. It should be methodical and boring and as we all know watching television to cheer lead positions does not add to profitability. Looking forward to schedule the podcast interview.

Covel: Hold on. You are the guy on CNN? The guy with videos literally every day providing near useless fundamental factoids and interpretations of what will happen next? And now you are emailing me to say trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. Don’t you think that is disingenuous? You tell me you have made 1000s of appearances, but [now] you tell people not to watch? I am not [Jim] Cramer. My podcast is not that. Best we agree to disagree right here, unless you can convince me how my eyes are lying to me when I watch your videos of broad generalizations.

Alan: I cannot change the game if I do not appear on TV. Producers and hosts do not understand the markets and create a crisis de jour. My job is to be optimistic of opportunities in any and all market conditions. Stressing a plan of action instead of fear is what I do. Having CNBC on for 10 hours a day or watching Cramer doesn’t help anybody make money. At best it may give 2-3 nuggets of information that could be explored for profit potential. People think news helps when in fact the WHY is of no importance compared to the HOW the market is moving.

Covel: You can’t let the TV hand feed you non-stop and then bite the same hand. None of what you are saying to me was on CNN.

Alan: I gave CNN reasons why I remain optimistic at a time when investors have renewed fears. Calm confidence. Participating in the TV discussion is more productive than not doing so to showcase my disciplined approach. My development of the [name] shows my recognition of this news noise issue and the need to better inform investors.

Covel: Maybe you know the truth, but to appear on TV so much is for you to play a game–their game. Try appearing on TV and tell the real truth. They won’t ask you back. Then you will have made a real advance in your credibility.


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Ep. 335: The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Bitcoin Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 334: Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 333: Gary Dayton Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Gary Dayton
Gary Dayton

My guest today is Gary Dayton. Dayton stands apart as a trading psychologist in his use of the Mindfulness-Acceptance-Commitment (MAC) approach to peak performance, a model of human behavior based on mindfulness. Dayton is a psychologist and holds a doctorate in clinical psychology and a certificate in human performance/sport psychology from Rutgers University. He is President of Peak Psychology, Inc., a consulting firm that specializes in developing “peak” performance in traders.

The topic is his book Trade Mindfully: Achieve Your Optimum Trading Performance with Mindfulness and Cutting-Edge Psychology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Mindfulness, yoga, and a turnaround in a particularly depressed patient
  • Defining mindfulness
  • How Dayton went from a clinical psychologist to integrating money, markets, trading, and investing into his work
  • The importance of a trading process
  • Looking at the lessons and research of Daniel Kahneman
  • The endowment effect
  • Price action as a heuristic
  • The importance of an exit strategy
  • Why mindfulness is the most important skill a trader can develop

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 332: Brian Proctor Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My guest today is Brian Proctor, an original TurtleTrader trained by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt and today is a Managing Director at EMC Capital. He began his futures career in 1982, with experience at both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. Proctor was a participant in the renowned Turtle Program, and managed all trading operations at C&D Commodities through 2000.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Proctor’s first trading moments and the Turtle program
  • Proctor’s view on Liz Cheval, what she brought to his firm, and why she’s still an integral part of EMC today
  • How trend following strategies have continued to excel over the years
  • Diversification and the Swiss franc
  • Black swans and how the impossible can and does happen
  • Bill Eckhardt’s influence

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Ep. 331: Douglas Emlen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Douglas Emlen
Douglas Emlen

My guest today is Douglas Emlen, a professor at the University of Montana. He is the recipient of the Presidential Early Career Award in Science and Engineering from the Office of Science and Technology Policy at the White House. He has also earned multiple research awards from the National Science Foundation, including their five-year CAREER award.

The topic is his book Animal Weapons: The Evolution of Battle.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Taking our lessons from animals
  • The connection with human and animal arms races
  • International hacking
  • Comparing the fiddler crap to US and USSR bombers during the cold war
  • Defining evolutionary biology
  • How an arms race can run its course via the example of the sabertooth tiger
  • The arms race in the trading world
  • How the cuttlefish has found its way around the “alpha” system
  • Finding “workarounds” when the deck is stacked against you
  • War games and detente
  • Why predictability in weapons is important
  • One-on-one showdowns
  • The importance of being nimble

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Ep. 330: Nigol Koulajian Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Nigol Koulajian
Nigol Koulajian

 

My guest today is Nigol Koulajian, the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Quest Partners LLC. He has been designing and trading short-term and long-term technical systems for over 22 years.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Trend following performance in 2014
  • Volatility vs. skew
  • Why having a good Sharpe Ratio is not the be-all-end-all
  • The notion that alpha in the CTA world is not a result of skill
  • Correlation between tail risk and the Sharpe Ratio
  • Central bank action and the Swiss Franc
  • Why trend following may not be as good in equity market corrections now as it has been in the past
  • Why trend following is not about the super-complicated mathematics
  • Getting outsiders to understand drawdowns
  • Emotional intelligence vs. intellectual intelligence
  • Media bias against trend following

Listen to this episode:

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