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Category: Interviews

Ep. 290: Mark Rzepczynski Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski

My guest today is Mark Rzepczynski, a Founder and Chief Investment Officer at AMPHI Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AMPHI Capital Management, he was the CEO of the Fund Group at FourWinds Capital Management, where he oversaw alternative investments. Rzepczynski was also President and Chief Investment Officer at John W. Henry & Co., an iconic Commodity Trading Advisor. He is on the Advisory Board of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA), the Associate Editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments, and a former board member of the FIA Futures Industry Association.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Advantages of podcasting as a format over traditional media outlets
  • Why prices are “primal”
  • Prices as a heuristic
  • Rzepczynski’s ah-ha moment that brought him to the heuristic of price
  • Why a complex education doesn’t necessarily mean you should use a complex system
  • Why knowing the transductive reasoning behind price movement is unnecessary
  • VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous
  • VUCA in the context of portfolio management
  • The zen of trading and portfolio management; the importance of passion in investing
  • The notion of over-diversification
  • Dynamic allocation
  • Convergent vs. divergent
  • The improbability principle
  • Tail events and preparing for the unexpected
  • The notion of systematic vs. discretionary
  • How trend following is represented in the mainstream media
  • Complexity
  • Risk and return
  • Volatility and complacency

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Ep. 289: Alex Tabarrok & David Nott Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Alex Tabarrok & David Nott
Alex Tabarrok & David Nott

My guests today are Alex Tabarrok and David Nott.

Tabarrok is the co-author of the Marginal Revolution website. He’s an economist at Covel’s alma mater, George Mason University.

Nott is the president of The Reason Foundation–an organization that is all about free minds and free markets.

The topic is libertarianism.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Tabarrok discuss China and the importance of teaching Chinese to American children; the greatest anti-poverty program in the world; the difficulty of improving the infrastructure of the United States; regulation and innovation; interest groups; benevolent dictators; the need for a democracy in an information age; innovation in the current American education system; why the American education system is focused on getting you to work for the man; women in the American education system; innovation, intellectual property and patents; the cumulative properties of innovation; grounds for optimism in the United States when it comes to innovation; how George Mason University became a libertarian economist hotspot; if Europe is following the path of Japan; why the European monetary union was a mistake; and why travel can create optimism.
  • Covel and Nott discuss The Reason Foundation and what it means to be a libertarian today; how Nott explains being a libertarian to people; how the actor and comedian Drew Carey came to be involved with The Reason Foundation; finding the optimism to stay focused on swaying people to the founding principles of our country; politics in China; the 2008 financial crisis, state control, and Reason’s response to the bailouts; common sense notions; pension reform; drug policy reform; the cultural policies surrounding prohibition; expanding the idea of liberty to younger people; Vernon Smith and Walter Williams.

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Ep. 288: Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths
Frank Curzio & Robin Griffiths

My guests today are Frank Curzio of Stansberry & Associates and Robin Griffiths, the Chief Technical Strategist at ECU and formerly at HSBC.

The topic is markets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Curzio discuss how the fundamental guys justify all time highs in the equity market; the Shiller PE ratio; the importance of analyzing interest rates; Warren Buffett recent investments; what the Fed would do if we went down 30% today; why having a low interest rate environment creates a good situation for stocks; being prepared from a risk management perspective; Zero Interest Rate Policy, its effect on equities and bonds, and tail risk; comparing the environment today to the 1987 crash; hypothetical situations surrounding the S&P 500; exit strategies; and the 24-hour news cycle.
  • Covel and Griffiths discuss how to use fundamentals in an age when interest rates are artificially controlled; Griffiths’ history as a mechanical engineer and how he found his way into trading and technical analysis; regression analysis; Elliott Wave and cycles; the idea of whipsaws; geopolitical risks; China, India, and the rise of Asia; not trading off of geopolitical fundamental information; how Griffiths came to the conclusion that the efficient market hypothesis and much of what the mutual fund industry depends on doesn’t hold water; spikes and why people in 2014 think that all spikes are gone; Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay and the cyclical nature of booms and busts; and virtual currencies.

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Posted on by Michael Covel

A short but sweet email came across my desk from a great investor (that has appeared on my podcast) about a meeting he had with another great guest that has appeared on my podcast:

Had a catch up with Charles Faulkner today who agreed that you are an amazing interviewer.

My reply: I have great guests. Makes it easy!

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Ep. 287: Toby Crabel Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Toby Crabel
Toby Crabel

My guest today is Toby Crabel, a tennis player who is now a commodities trader. In 2005, the Financial Times called Crabel “the most well-known trader on the counter-trend side”.

The topic is commodity trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Crabel’s history as a pro tennis player
  • Longevity and consistency in tennis and trading
  • Where Crabel stands with the total number of systems he employs
  • The source of Crabel’s profits and the philosophy behind it
  • Price action
  • Winning and losing volatility
  • Why Crabel needs price movement and volume
  • The idea of price shocks and the importance of being aware of them
  • The process of moving from high drawdowns to a much lower drawdown
  • The importance of diversity
  • Early lightbulb moments that informed Crabel’s trading style
  • Crabel’s experience with Victor Niederhoffer
  • How the philosophy of Objectivism has informed Crabel’s life
  • The liquidity of futures markets
  • The importance of persistence

Go listen. You may also enjoy this post on Toby Crabel.

Buy & Sell

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Ep. 286: Alex Greyserman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Alex Greyserman
Alex Greyserman

My guest today is Alex Greyserman, Chief Scientist at managed futures firm ISAM. He is also a professor at Columbia University. He is a member of the ISAM Systematic Investment Committee. He has 25 years of experience in the Managed Futures industry, having starting initially as Research Director at Mint Investment Management Co.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Idea of young college graduates writing articles about the death of trend following while firms like Greyserman’s continue to have tremendous success
  • Alternatives to thinking only ‘long stocks’
  • Greyserman’s first meeting with Larry Hite and how they have come to have such a career together
  • Why trend following is about more than getting on the right side of the S&P trade
  • The difference between cross-sectional momentum and time series momentum
  • The phrase “crisis alpha” and why trend following does well in times of crisis
  • The cost of not having trend following in your portfolio
  • Benchmarking and diversification
  • Why the worst thing you can do is “trend follow a trend follower”
  • The science of trend following
  • Speculation
  • Trend following your life–not just the markets
  • Dispersion among trend following traders
  • Effect of a higher rate environment

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alex greyserman

Ep. 285: Anthony Todd Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Anthony Todd
Anthony Todd

My guest today is Anthony Todd, the CEO of Aspect Capital, one of the most successful managed futures trend following firms. Todd co-founded Aspect in September 1997. Before that, he was with AHL.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why prices aren’t random
  • Finding an inefficiency that the academic financial community refuses to acknowledge
  • The idea of “predictable” patterns in the market
  • The desire to know static positions
  • How crowd behavior drives trends
  • Addressing misconceptions
  • Using fundamentals in a systematic way
  • Defining Todd’s medium-term style of trend following
  • Why “it’s less about the genius of the trade and more about the repeatability of the approach”
  • How long you can be in a particular market before you give up on it
  • Client understanding of trend following drawdowns
  • The phraseology of “crisis alpha”
  • The culture that Todd has built at Aspect
  • Todd’s advice to young entrepreneurs.

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