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Ep 531: Mark Rzepczynski Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski

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Mark Rzepczynski is the CEO of AMPHI Capital Management and has a deep knowledge of trading, especially trend following trading.

Simplicity beats complexity every time. Unfortunately, people crave more complex. With trend following, traders keep it simple. They just want to get the direction of the trade right. Trend followers don’t care about what the price will be or how far it will go, they just go back to the basics and see what way the trend is going, up or down.

The ability to simply follow the math has always been undervalued. Risk management is about the math of selling losers and hanging onto winners. It isn’t hard math to do, but this is what separates successful managers from losing ones. Successful managers build a portfolio, follow the trends and execute trades properly.

Harry Markowitz said, “If I would have created CAPM around semi variance no one would have understood the math and I would not have won the Nobel Prize.” Mark breaks this quote from Markowitz apart. He dives into good volatility vs bad volatility.

Fake news has been the premise of the 2017 presidential election. But is fake news new? Every time you see a government announcement come out saying they are revising their data, that is fake news. GDP numbers, unemployment, etc. are examples of fake our outdated news that cannot be depended on. We know that prices move and fluctuate from day to day, but trend followers can do things to smooth the uncertainty and prepare with a toolbox of rules such as staying diversified and having crisis alpha.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Controlling volatility
  • Style diversification
  • Long term vs. Short term managers
  • Simplicity beats complexity
  • Quant trading

“Price is primal.” – Mark Rzepczynski

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Ep. 290: Mark Rzepczynski Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mark Rzepczynski
Mark Rzepczynski

Michael Covel speaks with Mark Rzepczynski. Rzepczynski is a Founder and Chief Investment Officer at AMPHI Capital Management. Prior to co-founding AMPHI Capital Management, he was the CEO of the Fund Group at FourWinds Capital Management, where he oversaw alternative investments. Rzepczynski was also President and Chief Investment Officer at John W. Henry & Co., an iconic Commodity Trading Advisor. He is on the Advisory Board of the Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Association (CAIA), the Associate Editor of the Journal of Alternative Investments, and a former board member of the FIA Futures Industry Association. Covel and Rzepczynski discuss the advantages of podcasting as a format over traditional media outlets; why prices are “primal”; prices as a heuristic; Rzepczynski’s ah-ha moment that brought him to the heuristic of price; why a complex education doesn’t necessarily mean you should use a complex system; why knowing the transductive reasoning behind price movement is unnecessary; VUCA: volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous; VUCA in the context of portfolio management; the zen of trading and portfolio management; the importance of passion in investing; the notion of over-diversification; dynamic allocation; convergent vs. divergent; the improbability principle; tail events and preparing for the unexpected; the notion of systematic vs. discretionary; how trend following is represented in the mainstream media; complexity; risk and return; volatility and complacency.

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