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Ep. 19: Todd Miller Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Todd Miller
Todd Miller

My guest today is Todd Miller, a trader who runs a systematic trend following firm, Availeth Capital, with partner Jim Byers. Availeth is a small fund which was started in February 2011, and Covel relates Miller’s start to his chapter in ‘The Little Book of Trading’ on trader David Druz.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Miller got his start working at Fidelity, and how observing the annual returns of one of Fidelity’s biggest mutual funds after the tech bubble burst led him to adopting a trend following mindset
  • The path he took that eventually led him to starting Availeth Capital
  • Importance of in-person interaction
  • The issue of survivorship bias
  • How trend following is the only strategy that can take advantage of the uncertainty that is coming
  • How some trend following traders have followed other passions once they’ve made their billions
  • Covel also discusses his upcoming 10,000 (!) page book, Trend Following Analytics.

Listen to this episode:

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The Median Isn’t the Message by Stephen Jay Gould

Posted on by Michael Covel

A nice reminder from a great thinker:

If a little learning could ever be a dangerous thing, I had encountered a classic example. Attitude clearly matters in fighting cancer. We don’t know why (from my old-style materialistic perspective, I suspect that mental states feed back upon the immune system). But match people with the same cancer for age, class, health, socioeconomic status, and, in general, those with positive attitudes, with a strong will and purpose for living, with commitment to struggle, with an active response to aiding their own treatment and not just a passive acceptance of anything doctors say, tend to live longer. A few months later I asked Sir Peter Medawar, my personal scientific guru and a Nobelist in immunology, what the best prescription for success against cancer might be. “A sanguine personality,” he replied. Fortunately (since one can’t reconstruct oneself at short notice and for a definite purpose), I am, if anything, even-tempered and confident in just this manner.

Hence the dilemma for humane doctors: since attitude matters so critically, should such a sombre conclusion be advertised, especially since few people have sufficient understanding of statistics to evaluate what the statements really mean? From years of experience with the small-scale evolution of Bahamian land snails treated quantitatively, I have developed this technical knowledge – and I am convinced that it played a major role in saving my life. Knowledge is indeed power, in Bacon’s proverb.

A passage for trend followers? Hmmm… lion or gazelle.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

You Think It Is All About Lucky Survivors? Wrong. It Is About Effort!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Jonah Lehrer writes:

Because work isn’t fun. It doesn’t matter if we’re engaging in deliberate practice or studying algebra – the most necessary activities are often the least pleasant. Furthermore, success requires that people learn how to exert effort for extended periods of time, engaging in 10,000 hours of practice (+/- 5000 hours), suffering through 12 years of school and going through draft after draft. There are no shortcuts: even those blessed with raw talent still need to stay on task. Practice is never optional.

Consider the work of Francis Galton, the 19th century British polymath who spent decades amassing biographical information on the lives of eminent judges, politicians, poets, musicians and wrestlers. Although Galton hoped to identify the hereditary origins of genius – he wanted to lend support to his cousin Charles Darwin’s new theory of evolution – he eventually concluded that innate intelligence was not sufficient for high-achievement. Rather, these successful men needed to also be blessed with “zeal and with capacity for hard labour.”

Who said work isn’t fun?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 18: Jack Schwager Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jack Schwager
Jack Schwager

My guest today is Jack Schwager, an American trader and author. He is the author of the Market Wizard series. His books have remained relevant over the past 25 years, and for many traders they are the best trading books on the shelves today.

The topic is his book Hedge Fund Market Wizards.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Some of the commonalities between the many traders Schwager has interviewed, and the lessons that can be gleaned from their diverse approaches
  • Schwager’s new book opens with a quote regarding the importance of even-mindedness from rock climber Alex Honnold
  • How topics seemingly unrelated to trading can contain relevant lessons
  • Many of the other traders profiled in Hedge Fund Market Wizards are discussed, including Ed Thorp, Steve Clark, Jaffray Woodriff, and Ray Dalio.
  • Schwager’s big takeaways from his interviews have been, and the lessons he’s learned from talking to some of the most successful traders in the game
  • How markets behave differently in different environments
  • The importance of asymmetric positive skew trades
  • How diversification is the “only free lunch on wall street”
  • How Schwager defines risk
  • The “gain to pain” ratio

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 16: Francisco Vaca Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Francisco Vaca
Francisco Vaca

My guest today is Francisco Vaca, the chairman, CEO, a principal trader for Vaca Capital Management, and a commodity trading advisor (CTA) established in 2000. Vaca began his career in the futures industry in 1996 as an executive researcher for C&D Commodities co-founded by Richard Dennis of “Turtles” fame. His responsibilities included the research and implementation of systematic trading strategies for the futures and equities markets. Dr. Vaca holds a Ph.D. in physics from the University of Illinois at Chicago in addition to his undergraduate degrees in both physics and mathematics.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Bottom of the source of profits in the futures markets
  • Why people who are on the losing side of trades still play the game
  • Importance of diversification
  • Why you should take every signal you can

Listen to this episode:

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Trend Following Little League Team

Posted on by Michael Covel

My first year Little League sponsorship emblazoned TurtleTrader on the uniform, but now a slight shift to be even more trend following inclusive:

Trend Following Little League Team

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Flight Plans with Trend Follower Kevin Bruce; No Battlestar Galactica Screens Needed

Posted on by Michael Covel

Trend follower Kevin Bruce once had the opportunity to go to New York and see one of the major brokerage firms’ trading floors. He found it like Battlestar Galactica, with more screens and lights than you could imagine. He decided: “I couldn’t think in this environment.” You can never make decisions when the market is open; everything is like a flight plan, it’s got to be pre-planned. Trying to make decisions when the market is open is going to lead to emotional decisions. Everything must be thought out ahead of time. Know what you are going to do if it goes up, if it goes down, and if it doesn’t do anything. When all that is figured out, you put your system on autopilot. It almost sounds too simple, but that’s the way you need to do it, and that’s why you don’t need to stress out about anybody’s opinion.

More? See: The Little Book of Trading.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.