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Who Can Accurately Forecast? No One!

This article excerpt from Joshua Brown recently came into my in box:

People Who Cannot Accurately Forecast Markets

1. Hedge fund managers
2. Wall Street’s top strategists
3. Technical analysts
4. Day-traders
5. Swing-traders
6. Newsletter writers and book authors
7. Journalists
8. Financial advisors
9. Your dentist
10. Leading finance professors
11. Famous economists
12. Bloggers and columnists
13. Tweeters
14. Horses who count with their hooves
15. Astrologers
16. Value investors
17. Investment clubs
18. Message board aficionados
19. TV hosts
20. Mutual fund managers
21. Sell-side analysts
22. ETF companies
23. Institutions, pensions and endowments
24. Me
25. You

Nice.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Luck Favors the Prepared and Persistent

James Altucher‘s latest blog post “The Ultimate Cheat Sheet for Mastery” is worth a read if you want to know what it takes to truly master something. An excerpt:

At some point you have to cook 10,000 meals. Or play a million hands of poker. Or 1000s of games of chess. Or start 20 businesses.

Very few are successful right away. That would require too much luck and luck favors the prepared and the persistent.

In those 1000s of whatever you will encounter much failure. We all know that the best baseball players in the world are enormous successes if they strike out “only” 70% of the time.

When my dad died I went to his house and logged onto this chess account. I saw that he played about 30,000 games. He never got any better.

A lot of people can play the 10,000 hands of poker and never get better. Or bake 1000 cakes and never get better.

You have to remember your experiences, study your failures, try to note what you did right and what you did wrong, and remember them for future experiences.

Will future experiences be exactly like the old experiences? Almost never.

But you have to have the ability to say “Hmm, this is like the time four years ago when X, Y, and Z happened.”

Read entire article here. Good job James.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 214: Trend Following Winners, Daniel Kahneman & Tina Turner with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Trend Following Winners, Daniel Kahneman & Tina Turner with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Trend Following Winners, Daniel Kahneman & Tina Turner with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Trend Following Winners, Daniel Kahneman, and Tina Turner with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Book_cover

I’m An Elitist

Great blog post from Seth Godin:

I’m an elitist

(You might be as well).

The market isn’t always right. It’s merely the market.

Mass appeal is not always better than doing something that matters.

Increasing shareholder value is not the primary purpose of a corporation.

News with a lot of clicks isn’t always important news.

Selling out to get popular is selling yourself short.

Lowering the price at the expense of sustainability is a fool’s game.

Only producing tools that don’t need an instruction manual takes power away from those prepared to learn how to use powerful tools. And it’s okay to write a book that some people won’t finish, or a video that some don’t understand.

Giving people what they want isn’t always what they want.

Curators create value. We need more curators, and not from the usual places.

Creating and reinforcing cultural standards and institutions that elevate us is more urgent than ever.

We write history about people who were brave enough to lead, not those that figured out how to pander to the crowd.

Elites aren’t defined by birth or wealth, they are people with a project, individuals who want to do work they believe in, folks seeking to make an impact. Averaging down everything we do so that it becomes cheap and ubiquitous and palatable to all is a hollow goal.

Love it. That has been my goal since day 1.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Your Podcast Is the Best Thing in Media”

Todd Foster writes:

Just wanted to say that your podcast is the best thing in media. Content is so thought provoking. Your style with guests is gracious and engaging. You appear to be a great example of purposeful living, and you’re positive energy is contagious. Thank you!

Thanks Todd.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Legacy of the Legendary Trader Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore was an outstanding trader. The insights he shared with the world are invaluable. Josh Brown wrote a great article featured on www.ritholtz.com pointing out some of his great nuggets of wisdom as well as how he would react in this day and age with news outlets streaming 24/7:

There are those who would convince you that it is somehow smart or in your best interest to be manically switching your investments around, back and forth, long and short, on a daily basis. To pay attention to this kind of overstimulation is the height of madness, even for professional traders.

The most storied and important trader who ever lived, Jesse Livermore, would be tuning these daily buy and sell calls out were he alive and operating today. Because while he was a trader, he was not of the mindset that there was always some kind of action to be taking.

Jesse Livermore’s legacy is a bit of a double-edged sword…

On the one hand, he was the first to codify the ancient language of supply and demand that is every bit as relevant 100 years later as it was when he first relayed it to biographer Edwin Lefèvre. Livermore himself sums it up thusly: “I learned early that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”

On the other hand, Livermore’s undoing came at precisely the moments in which he ignored his own advice. After repeated admonitions about tipsters, for example, Jesse allowed a tip on cotton to lead to a massive loss which grew even larger as he sat on it – violating yet another of his own cardinal rules.

And of course, other than for a few moments of temporary triumph in the trading pits and bucket shops of the era, Jesse Livermore was not a happy man. “Things haven’t gone well with me,” he informed one of his many wives by handwritten note, before putting a bullet through his own head in the cloakroom of the Sherry-Netherland Hotel.

But he did leave behind a wealth of knowledge about the art of speculation. His exploits (and cautionary tales of woe) have educated, influenced and inspired every generation of trader since Reminiscences was first published in 1923.

In my opinion, some of the most useful bits of knowledge we get from the book concern Jesse’s discussion of timeframes and patience. Many traders, particularly rookies, approach the game with the idea that they’re supposed to be constantly doing something – in and out, with a trembling finger poised to click the mouse again and again. Consequently, they get on the treadmill of booking wins and losses without ever really moving the needle. They end up with tons of brokerage commissions and taxes to show for their efforts, but not much else.

Being a trader doesn’t mean one must always be executing a trade, just as being a house painter doesn’t mean that every surface needs an endless series of coats.

Many rookies are surprised to learn that Livermore, the idol of so many great traders, advocated a lower maintenance, higher patience approach as he matured. In his early days, Livermore was dependent on the short-term funding and scalping activity of the bucket shops. Once he graduated and had his own capital, he was able to lengthen position holding times and could even afford to do nothing for extended periods.

Here are nine surprising things Jesse Livermore said regarding excessive trading:

  • “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
  • “It takes time to make money.”
  • “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
  • “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
  • “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
  • “Buy right, sit tight.”
  • “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
  • “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”

and finally, the most important thing: “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”

Jesse was a trader but he knew the value of staying with positions and sometimes not trading at all. Once he began to follow tips from others or trade when he should have abstained, all of his progress had come undone, and with it, his sanity.

We are fortunate to be able to learn from his mistakes and to sidestep the errors that eventually cost him everything.

Jesse Livermore Books:

• How to Trade in Stocks (PDF)
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (PDF)


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 213: Jonathan Hoenig Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Jonathan Hoenig
Jonathan Hoenig

 

My guest today is Jonathan Hoenig, an American, founding member of the Capitalist Pig hedge fund, and a regular contributor to and regular panelist on Fox News Channel’s Cashin’ In, Your World with Neil Cavuto, Red Eye w/ Greg Gutfeld and WLS 890’s morning show, Don Wade & Roma.

The topic is his documentary Pit Trading 101.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Hoenig’s branding for his hedge fund, Capitalist Pig
  • Why capitalism has become demonized
  • The difference between capitalism and crony capitalism
  • Ayn Rand and capitalism as the “unknown ideal”
  • How Hoenig ended up in the Chicago trading pits, and what we can learn from studying pit trading today
  • The physical type of pit traders
  • The subculture of the pits
  • Where Hoenig sees futures markets going
  • The blame of speculators
  • America’s place in the world today

Listen to this episode:

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