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Ep. 271: The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The S&P 500 Trading System with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Play the Trend Following Game

Trend following trading is a game indeed, but it is terribly important to avoid becoming the game (a game I have explained in a multitude of ways). In general, think about the three types of players in any game:

• Those who know they are in the game.
• Those who do not know they are in the game.
• Those who do not know they are in the game and have become the game.

Within a half hour of playing any game, if you do not know the patsy, you are it. Said another way: You are the game. That is serious talk for the serious game of your financial health and wealth.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Drawdown Wisdom

In the early 1990s, Commodities Corporation (a famed trading incubator that taught and bankrolled new traders) invited a group of Japanese traders to its company for in-house training. One up-and-coming trader at Commodities Corporation took his new friends to lunch. He told his guests how important risk management was, and to risk only 1 percent per trade. He was clear that experiencing small losses were part of his process to ultimately finding big winners. The Japanese traders, with puzzled looks on their faces, asked, “You have losses?” Ouch! Time for everyone regardless of country to learn about small losses, and to love them, even if that means your account will occasionally have drawdowns. What are drawdowns? Drawdowns are those non-fun time periods where your small losses add up to reduce your account size. They happen. The key is to quickly and successfully recover from them by sticking with your trend trading system and waiting patiently for big trends to reappear, which let you get back to making new money again (and paying for all of those small losses). How much can you lose? That’s an important question to answer, and it comes down to the risk you take (which will vary by your personal choice). However, trend following is much easier to believe in when you consider the length of professional trend trading track records, especially the really long track records that offer proof of viability. That said, some will spend a lifetime trying to avoid any loss (even though that is impossible).


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 253: Perry Kaufman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Perry Kaufman
Perry Kaufman

My guest today is Perry Kaufman, an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs.

The topic is systematic trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Kaufman came to the idea of 100% algorithmic trading systems
  • The difference between being systematic and being automated
  • Optimization vs. validation
  • The biggest advantages of testing
  • Why discretion is not part of Kaufman’s toolbox
  • The problem of tail events
  • Why discipline is the most important characteristic of a systematic trader
  • The “loose pants fit everyone” philosophy
  • Preparing yourself for uncertainty
  • Comparisons between risk management and risk measurement
  • The Sharpe ratio
  • High volatility trades vs. low volatility
  • Why Kaufman places equal weight on both risk management and the underlying system
  • Systematic trading in established mature markets vs. emerging markets

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Ep. 252: Ben Hunt Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Ben Hunt
Ben Hunt

My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history.

The topic is Epsilon Theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Power of the crowd watching the crowd
  • Game theory
  • Having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds
  • The difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory
  • The Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched
  • The “common knowledge game” and the missionary
  • The island of the green-eyed tribe

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Paraphrasing Richard Feynman on “Price” Importance

Trend followers trade the “price”. It’s the number that can’t be faked, the real indicator of the past, now and the future. Richard P. Feynman adds:

“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world [think of all those so-called market fundamentals], but when you’re finished, you’ll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird…So let’s look at the bird and see what it’s doing — that’s what counts.”

What is the market doing right now? That’s what counts. The price.

richard feynman


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“The guiding principle of our work is figuring out a way to deal with uncertainty.”

Excerpt:

Q: What’s the guiding principle of your work now?

A: The guiding principle of our work is figuring out a way to deal with uncertainty. That’s what we deal with every day—an uncertain future. What’s going to happen on the next pitch is uncertain. We can’t figure out exactly what’s going to happen, but if we can get our arms around a range of possibilities, that gives us a much better chance to at least make better decisions. We’re still going to be wrong a lot, but hopefully we’re wrong less often now than we were 10 years ago. But we’re never going to be in a situation where our analysis tells us what’s going to happen. These are human beings interacting with one another in a highly stressful situation. So we’re never going to be perfectly predictive. But that’s what makes baseball interesting, makes it emotional.

Trend following 101…too.

Source: Go.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.