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Swing Baby! And Keep Swinging!

Ken at Top Breakout Stocks recently made a comment here about this WSJ article. What did he say?

“Replace the word ‘strikeout’ with ‘taking a loss’ and ‘runs’ with ‘profits’ and it’s a perfect analogy for trading.”

So I decided to try it. Here is the article:

There is no easier way to get booed in baseball than to end an inning with a swing and a miss taking a loss. For as long as the game has been played, hitters have been taught to make contact and put the ball in play, but a new generation of sluggers is finding success swinging from its heels on every pitch. The negative stigma surrounding the strikeout taking a loss has been destroyed. No player exemplifies this change more than Arizona’s Mark Reynolds. Last season, he became the first player in baseball history to whiff take a loss 200 times in a single season, and now he’s on pace to do it again. Arizona has been willing to live with long walks to the dugout because of what he is able to do when he does make contact—he’s hitting .440 with 40 home runs profits when the bat meets the ball. Other notable players with this all-or-nothing approach include Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard, the Nationals’ Adam Dunn, the Rays’ Carlos Pena, Oakland’s Jack Cust and Seattle’s Russell Branyan. Each of these five has racked up 140 strikeouts losses or more this season, a feat nearly unheard of 30 years ago. Bobby Bonds’s record of 189 strikeouts losses in a season held up from 1970 to 2004, but since then, it has been passed six times, and Mr. Reynolds is just about to do it again. Run scoring Profits have also increased as the strikeout taking a loss has become more acceptable. Statistical analysis has shown the strikeout taking a loss is no worse than any other kind of out, and the trade-off for extra home runs profits is more than worth it. Dan Plesac, a two-time All Star and current MLB Network analyst, says today’s players are “more rewarded if you hit .270 and get 30 home runs profits than if you hit .310 but hit 20.”

Works!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Bernard Drury: “An Intrinsic Part of Trading”

Bernard Drury of Drury Capital writes in his May 10 newsletter:

“While trading losses are never welcome, we know that encountering price corrections is an intrinsic part of trading these markets. As ever, [our] Program employs a disciplined approach to trade selection, position sizing, portfolio balancing, and equity protection when adverse market conditions are encountered. During a period when markets are behaving in a manner contrary to positions, [our] Program gradually reduces risk in a systematic manner. In some cases, positions in the opposite direction of the original trend may be established, even while some trades in the same sector are still positioned in the original direction. It is a dynamic process that responds continuously to changes in market conditions.”

Wise insights from a long time trend follower who I was fortunate to spend time with.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Markets as ‘The Truman Show’

An excerpt I like:

“The Truman Show is a 1998 American comedy-drama…The film chronicles the life of a man who discovers he is living in a constructed reality soap opera, televised 24/7 to billions across the globe.”

Constructed reality soap opera? Our markets today!

Bottom line, from a trend trading perspective — price is king and follow it. But from a “what-the-hell-is-going-on-in-the-world-today” perspective — it is ‘The Truman Show’


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

What is StockTwits: It it of Use or Just a Bunch of Twits?

Howard Lindzon has said some very nice things about my books. Now that the disclaimer is out of the way: what in the world is the purpose of StockTwits?

Stocktwits Best Traders

For example, from their ‘about us’ page:

“Log into the site with your Twitter details or download the StockTwits Desktop and you will be joining a community where market participants share their very best ideas in a continuous real time and open conversation.”

And:

“The beauty is the simplicity. Messages are short and allow a person to read several interesting bits of stock information from various sources at a glance. The lightweight approach highlights the power of delivering vertical value to a horizontal community, where both constituencies share a common passion: the desire to consume and share real-time information.”

And:

“In essence, StockTwits® helps people interested in markets socialize ideas. Whether you are a short term trader, swing trader or investor, whether you prefer stocks, Forex, options or futures, whether you want to eavesdrop or participate, you will find a wealth of information streaming at your fingertips.”

Sure, everyone has a view, but not everyone has a view that you should pay attention to. In fact, if trading as a trend follower ALL of these views are worthless.

Let me blunt: I know who the best traders on the planet are and NONE of them do any of this. Agree or flame me because I am 100% dead on telling the truth. This is financial news and information taken to its useless extreme by the Free Stocktwits.

Note: I am an equal opportunity ripper of news whatever. CNBC doesn’t escape my sword.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Timeless Trend Trading Wisdom

In the 1954 work ‘New Blueprints for Gains in Stocks and Grains’ William Dunnigan stated:

“We think that “forecasting” should be thought of in the light of measuring the direction of today’s trend and then turning to the Law of Inertia (momentum) for assurance that probabilities favor the continuation of that trend for an unknown period of time into the future. This is trend following, and it does not require us to don the garment of the mystic and look into the crystal balls of the future…Let us believe that it is possible to profit through economic changes by following today’s trend, as it is revealed statistically day-by-day, week-by-week, or month-by-month. In doing this we should entertain no preconceived notions as to whether business is going to boom or bust, or whether the Dow-Jones Industrial Average is going to 500 or 50. We will merely chart our course and steer our ship in the direction of the prevailing wind. When the economic weather changes, we will change our course with it and will not try to forecast the future time or place at which the wind will change.”


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Thomas Stridsman on Trend Following Trading

A good article on trend following trading (PDF):

“…being a systematic trend follower also induces some pain from time to time, but overall results move slowly in the right direction. Trend followers need to learn to sit on their hands from time to time, and other times endure the pain from what seems like a never-ending string of whipsaw trades. That just comes with the style.”

More.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Money Management Advice

Trading mentor Van Tharp once stated:

Perhaps the greatest secret to top trading and investing success is appropriate money management. I call it a ‘secret’ because few people seem to understand it, including many people who•ve written books on the topic. Some people call it risk control, others call it I diversification, and still others call it how to ‘wisely’ invest your money. However, the money management that is the key to top trading and investing simply refers to the algorithm that tells you ‘how much’ with respect to any particular position in the market.

He added:

John was a little shell-shocked over what had happened in the market over the last three days — he’d lost 70% of his account value. He was shaken, but still convinced that he could make the money back! After all, he had been up almost 200% before the market withered him down, He still had $4,500 left in his account. What advice would you give John? Your advice should be, “get out of the market immediately. You don’t have enough money to trade speculatively.” However, the average person is usually trying to make a big killing in the market, thinking that he or she can turn a $5,000 to $10,000 account into a million dollars in less than a year. While this sort of feat is possible, the chances of ruin for anyone who attempts it is almost certain.

I have been helping clients with these very issues in my trading courses for over a decade.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.